The time has come to start breaking down the S-Curve in greater detail.
1) It feels like we have 2 borderline 1 seeds (Oklahoma, Nova), and 9 2 seeds this year. I count 11 teams who have a legitimate claim to the top 2 lines. Right now, the Big 10 having a bad overall year is costing Michigan St and Maryland. They have legitimate complaints about not being on the 2 line, but my only retort is: in place of whom? I don't think I can take Oregon or UNC out right now.
2) While the 3 line is strong, the 4 line is weak. I'm not completely sold on either USC or Arizona on the 4 line, but I'm not a fan of the other options. I'm assuming a SEC team (A&M or Kentucky) will play their way back in there, or Duke or Providence. But for now, I'm keeping them out of protected seeding.
3) The 8 line is about where the bubble starts. Everyone from about the 5 line to the 8 line are somewhat interchangeable and are probably at least 3 losses away from the cutline. Once you get near the end of the 8 line and to the 9-11 lines...those lines are very very weak right now. In many years teams on the 10 line would be on the wrong side of the bubble. I expect the bubble to firm up a bit as teams play their way in, but for the moment, it's very weak. Monmouth has a 9 seed, I keep waiting for their inevitable slide, but there's just no teams out there that can pass them right now. Ditto UALR and the 10 line.
4) This might be a record for conference leaders hanging around the bubble. VCU, Temple, San Diego St, Chattanooga, Monmouth, Valpo, UALR, Gonzaga. All are in various states of bubble right now, and all might or might not be bid poachers if they need an at-large. The commitee is going to have an interesting time coming to a consensus with regards to what resume features they enjoy. If they like road wins? Monmouth/UALR/Chattanooga bump. Tough schedules? VCU/Gonzaga/SDSU. Best wins? Monmouth/Temple. The committee has a lot of directions to go in at the moment.