Friday, February 12, 2016

2/11 recap

@Indiana 85, Iowa 78 - a signature win for Indiana, and they're very close to the lockbox.  This hurts somewhat for Iowa.  They'll have a high seed regardless, but this can cost them the 1 line

@California 83, Oregon 63 - figures once I get on Oregon's bandwagon, they get blown out.  They built up plenty of goodwill, but like Iowa, this can cost them the one line.  Cal is approaching the lockbox
@Colorado 88, Washington St 81 (2OT) - boy, talk about near disasters
Oregon St 62, @Stanford 50 - road wins are never trivial

@Syracuse 85, Florida St 72 - No idea what to do with FSU.  Syracuse approaching the lockbox, rather unbelievably

@UMass 69, VCU 63 - a catastrophic loss for VCU, no other way to say it.  Road or not, you have to beat UMass-like teams, period

@Temple 63, UConn 58 - I don't want to penalize UConn too much for a road loss, but the margin of error for them is thin.  The more interesting story is Temple slowly becoming a legit at-large contender.  Probably not there yet, but encroaching

Pepperdine 69, @St Mary's 63 - Pepperdine is the 4th best team in conference, but still.  At home, you must hold, especially when St Mary's plays as few games away from home as they do.  Perhaps fatal
Gonzaga 92, @Portland 66

Hofstra 86, @William & Mary 80 - W&M weren't a serious bubble team, but even if they were, this is fatal.  After another matchday in conference, UNC-Wilmington is 11-2 and 2 clear of everyone else

@Valparaiso 64, Northern Kentucky 52 - a non-trivial development:  less mid-majors on the bubble with losses such as those listed below.  More room for Valpo, perhaps

@Western Carolina 67, Chattanooga 61 - oh no.  Perhaps fatal.  WCU is under .500 both overall and in conference.  At least the loss to Furman; that's a 10-4 team in conference.  This is absolutely terrible

Sun Belt:
@Louisiana-Monroe 86, Arkansas Little Rock 82 - sigh.  At least they're .500 overall and 8-5 in conference, but there's really no good way to spin this.  This margin of error is gone, gone gone

Conference watch:
A-Sun:  North Florida lost again, co-leads with Jacksonville at 7-3 and this conference is headed to Dayton regardless
A-East:  Stony Brook is now 12-0
CUSA:  UAB is 21-4, 11-1 overall now.  I wonder how many will hop on this bandwagon.  But it's pretty telling I ignored them while focusing on UALR and Chattanooga, right?  The resume is much thinner than those other ones
Big West:  Hawaii beat UC Irvine at home, and they lead by a game now

Evansville blows a home game to Illinois St and the MVC is all sorts of awful behind Wichita this year...BYU won on the road at San Fran.  Yippee...

No comments: