Sunday, February 14, 2016

2/13 recap

@SMU 69, Gonzaga 60 - this won't hurt Gonzaga, but it won't help, and they needed a bit of help

@St Bonaventure 64, George Washington 57 - Bonaventure is legitimately in this bubble discussion now, and I think GW has just about absorbed all the damage it can afford to
@VCU 85, St Louis 52
@St Joseph's 88, LaSalle 62
NITWatch:  Davidson lost at Mason and is in trouble here...Richmond over Fordham

@Duke 63, Virginia 62 - a signature win and Duke can worry about working their way back to the 3 or 4 line.  Raleigh might be a lost cause unless they can sweep UNC, though.  Virginia?  Crushing to their hopes at the one line
@Notre Dame 71, Louisville 66 - Notre Dame.  Lockbox.
@Clemson 66, Georgia Tech 52
NITWatch:  NC State keeping their slim hopes, a win over Wake

@Cincinnati 75, East Carolina 60
@UConn 75, Tulsa 73 - tough ask for Tulsa, but given their situation, they needed to deliver on a tough ask to have a chance
NITWatch:  Houston wins, Memphis loses and is about done here

Big 12:
Kansas 76, @Oklahoma 72 - the top line probably goes Kansas/Oklahoma/Villanova now.  I just can't ignore head-to-head when I think these are the top 3 resume teams in the country
@West Virginia 73, TCU 42
@Iowa St 85, Texas 75 - actually really important for ISU, who was starting to test the waters to see how many losses you can absorb before being a 4 seed.  No harm to Texas
Texas Tech 84, @Baylor 66 - a signature road win?  Okay, we begin taking TTU seriously around here.  As for Baylor, they are a clear 6th in the conference pecking order now
@Oklahoma St 58, Kansas St 55 (OT) - anyone who has K-State in a bracket now is a fraud

Big East:
@Villanova 73, St John's 63
Xavier 74, @Butler 57 - no harm to Butler, but I'd recommend getting one of these sooner or later
@Providence 75, Georgetown 72 - actually very important for Providence to stabilize, and GU is done here
Creighton 65, @Marquette 62 - Creighton:  still relevant!

Wisconsin 70, @Maryland 57 - see, Maryland, this is why you're a 2/3 seed.  And 3 might be generous, but the teams on the 4 line aren't good enough to move up yet
@Michigan 61, Purdue 56 - Michigan should be fine
Ohio St 79, @Rutgers 69 - not dead yet...
NITWatch:  Nebraska and Northwestern win

Just in case you were thinking about getting fancy with your projections, UAB lost at LaTech.  Not relevant to the bubble this year

William&Mary lost again, at Towson.  That was a silly week of everyone thinking there was outside hope.  UNC-Wilmington still leads everyone by 2 games

Wright St 61, @Valparaiso 59 - nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

@Northern Illinois 80, Akron 79 - just as quickly as I give Akron hope, they go and do this

Northern Iowa 53, @Wichita St 50 - wait, what?  I'm not even sure how to analyze Wichita's resume.  They're back in range of the bubble now
NITWatch:  Southern Illinois is somehow 20-7 without doing anything relevant

@San Diego St 80, Air Force 61
NITWatch:  Boise, New Mexico win...Nevada beats Fresno.  These are your four teams in contention for maybe 1 at-large NIT spot

@Stanford 76, Oregon 72 - just when I was ready to put Oregon on the 1 line, they get swept on the NorCal trip.  Sigh.  Stanford still not relevant yet
@Colorado 81, Washington 80 - Colorado approaching the lockbox, Washington probably on the wrong side of the bubble
@California 83, Oregon St 71 - big ask for OSU to get this, but they're still in trouble.  Cal probably in the lockbox now.  A clear set of tiers have emerged in the conference.  Oregon///USC///Arizona and Cal and Utah and Colorado///Washington and Oregon St and UCLA on the bubble

@LSU 76, Texas A&M 71 - A&M doing severe damage to their seed line.  LSU?  Legitimately on the bubble for the first time all year
Kentucky 89, @South Carolina 62 - the good news for USC is they did some earlier work that legitimized their place in the tourney field.  This won't hurt too badly.  And a boon for Kentucky's seed
Alabama 61, @Florida 55 - Alabama:  not dead!  Florida:  in legitimate trouble
Vanderbilt 86, @Auburn 57
Georgia 66, @Mississippi St 57
NITWatch:  Ole Miss wins, Tennessee loses

Chattanooga 76, @East Tennessee St 68 - actually a good road win but the damage is done

@South Dakota St 85, South Dakota 68 - they still share the league lead with IPFW

Sun Belt:
Arkansas-Little Rock 68, @Louisiana-Lafayette 64 - actually a good road win but the damage is done

BYU 96, @Santa Clara 62
@St Mary's 68, Loyola Marymount 62

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