Thursday, February 25, 2016

2/24 recap

The race for the 1 line:
@Xavier 90, Villanova 83 - the plot thickens.  Will there be room for 4 teams from 2 conferences on the 1 line?  The B1G is helping because Indiana leads there.  However, I just have the feeling the ACC champion will make a legit run, and one of Xavier and Villanova will fall by the boards.  This makes 'Nova holding on to their lead so important.  For today, X is your final 1 seed
@Oklahoma 71, Oklahoma St 49 - the Xavier win also applies pressure here, because OU isn't likely to have a piece of the Big 12 crown at this point.  The importance of the conference tournament can't be understated now
North Carolina 80, @NC State 68 - and the pressure rises on UNC, who doesn't have the same profile on paper as most other contenders
Wisconsin 67, @Iowa 59 - meanwhile, this is the end of Iowa's run at the 1 line for sure, they needed a double crown to have a chance.  This also doubles as the signature win that has Wisconsin in great shape now.  It's all about bad loss avoidance now

Lockbox activity:
@Colorado 75, Arizona 72 - Colorado was starting to get shaky, so a very important hold.  Probably a home win over ASU away from the lockbox
Louisville 67, @Pittsburgh 60 - Pitt should still be fine, but a lost chance to improve the seed
@Oregon 76, Washington St 62
@Texas A&M 68, Mississippi St 66
Notre Dame 69, @Wake Forest 58
@South Carolina 84, Tennessee 58
Wichita St 76, @Loyola(Chi) 54

On the bubble:
@Michigan 72, Northwestern 63
George Washington 73, @Richmond 61 - road wins are never trivial
@St Bonaventure 80, Duquesne 76
St Joseph's 74, @UMass 57
@George Mason 76, VCU 69 - oh no, no no no.  Ok a road loss, but not to the likes of Mason
San Diego St 73, @Wyoming 61 - only lost once in the Mountain West so far.  That's really good, no matter the level of the conference.  There's still a chance
@Oregon St 82, Washington 81 - probably endgame for Washington

Get off the bubble:
@Auburn 84, Georgia 81
Marquette 66, @Creighton 61 - the hopes were dim here anyways

NITWatch:  Illinois St blows out Southern Illinois and the impending ISU/Evansville matchup in the MVC semis could be for a NIT spot...Northern Iowa won again but has too much ground to make up...Fresno and Nevada win in the MWC but still probably trail Boise...UC-Irvine blows out the Beach and are legitimate at-large contenders for the NIT

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