Friday, February 12, 2016

2/12 S-CURVE

AQ shenanigans:
SEC:  We'll put South Carolina in this spot for the time being, currently a 3-way tie between LSU and Kentucky
AAC:  Temple continues to hold serve
A-10:  Dayton is the leader, not VCU anymore, remember

There's some tricky spots.
1) I'm not sure I like Kansas and Virginia on the 1 line, but they feel like the best choices at the moment.
2) I got frisky putting Arizona on the 4 line last time.  Fixed that here.
3) Right now, the 5-6-7 lines feel pretty strong, relatively speaking.  I can buy ND, Cal, etc. on the 5 line if you really wanted to make that argumnt.
4) The bubble starts somewhere around the 9 line.  Tough to see teams like Florida, Michigan, Wichita St, missing at this point given that the bubble situation rapidly deteriorates.
5) Pretty big course correction for a few mid-majors, as Chattanooga and UALR plummet.  Enter Akron, who probably can't get all the way to the cutline, but they deserve to be on the consideration board for the moment.
6) I really don't like the last 4 in.  Teams will eventually pick up quality wins to strengthen the bubble, but for the moment, it's very weak.  I mean, Wisconsin?!?!

The 1 line:  Oklahoma (20-3), Villanova (20-3), Virginia (20-4), Kansas (19-4)
The 2 line:  Xavier (21-3), Maryland (21-3), Iowa (19-5), Oregon (19-5)
The 3 line:  North Carolina (20-4), Michigan St (20-5), West Virginia (19-5), Miami (19-4)
The 4 line:  Dayton (20-3), USC (18-5), Purdue (20-5), Duke (18-6)
The 5 line:  Iowa St (17-7), Kentucky (18-6), Arizona (19-5), Texas A&M (18-6)
The 6 line:  Texas (16-8), Indiana (20-5), Baylor (17-6), South Carolina (20-3)
The 7 line:  Notre Dame (17-7), Utah (17-7), California (16-8), Pittsburgh (16-6)
The 8 line:  Colorado (17-7), Providence (18-7), Syracuse (17-8), Wichita St (17-6)
The 9 line:  Michigan (17-7), Florida (16-8), Butler (17-7), Seton Hall (17-7)
The 10 line:  Monmouth (20-5), Gonzaga (19-5), Valparaiso (19-4), St Joseph's (20-4)
The 11 line:  Washington (15-9), Cincinnati (18-7), George Washington (18-6), Temple (15-8)
The 12 line:  Florida St (16-8), UConn (17-7), Oregon St (14-8), Wisconsin (15-9), San Diego St (16-7), Akron (19-4)
The 13 line:  Chattanooga (20-4), Arkansas-Little Rock (19-3), South Dakota St (17-6), UNC-Wilmington (17-5)
The 14 line:  Yale (14-5), Hawaii (17-3), Stony Brook (19-4), UAB (20-4)
The 15 line:  Belmont (17-8), New Mexico St (15-8), Stephen F Austin (13-5), Montana (12-8)
The 16 line:  UNC-Asheville (15-9), North Florida (15-9), Bucknell (12-11), Fairleigh Dickinson (12-11), South Carolina St (12-11), Texas Southern (10-12)

Bubble in:
Wichita St
Seton Hall

Next 4 in:
St Joseph's
George Washington

Last 4 in:
Florida St
Oregon St

Last 4 out:
VCU (17-7)
Clemson (14-10)
San Diego St***
Tulsa (16-8)
St Bonaventure (16-6)

Next 4 out:
St Mary's (18-4)
Alabama (14-9)
UCLA (13-10)
Vanderbilt (14-10)

Deep bubble:
Creighton (16-9)
Georgetown (14-11)
Arkansas-Little Rock***
LSU (15-9)
Texas Tech (14-9)
Kansas St (14-10)
Georgia (13-9)
Davidson (13-8)
South Dakota St***
Ohio St (15-10)


HenryMuto said...

Kentucky makes a statement wins by 27 at South Carolina after Coach Cal got ejected 2 minutes in and Alex Poythress didn't even play.

Andrew said...

Crap, I'm going to have to put personal bias aside and realize they've got a great chance at the 3 line.

Meanwhile, K-State loses at Oklahoma St. Everyone who put them in a bracket deserves what's coming to them.

HenryMuto said...

Kentucky is my favorite team but their resume is still too shaky for the 3 line. I think coming into today they were somewhere around a 5 seed and might have moved to a 4 seed but it's tight. I think they might be #16 on the S-Curve right now the last 4 seed.

HenryMuto said...

What a terrible week for mid major teams trying to get in position for at large bids if they fail to win their conf tournaments.

Earlier this week Chattanooga and Arkansas-LR both lost.

Today both Akron and Valpo lost.

For Valpo they now got swept by Wright State a team that lost to horrible UIC. A real damaging blow.

I really thought Chattanooga and Valpo both could have got an at large bid if that had won out to the finals but now it's going to be tough.

HenryMuto said...

Meanwhile.....Texas Tech blows out Baylor on the road...sigh.........

HenryMuto said...

How about Wisconsin. Opened the year with a loss at home to Western Illinois later lost at home to Milwaukee and started the year 9-9 and now has won 7 in a row to get into the NCAA picture.

HenryMuto said...

Duke wins on the final shot though Allen did take 3 steps.........

HenryMuto said...

Arizona has only 1 top 50 win vs Oregon State. Zero wins vs sure fire locks for the NCAA tournament. Best wins home vs Oregon State, Washington x2, at Gonzaga.