Sunday, February 21, 2016

2/20 recap

St Bonaventure 79, @Dayton 72 - a signature road win!  All the A-10 bubble teams are kind of getting jumbled up right now; tough to tell who's really ahead of who.  But for now, Bonaventure has a signature road win, and Dayton has bled out of the top 4 lines
@Davidson 99, St Joseph's 93 - the first road loss all year, so it's much much easier to be forgiving of St Joe's for this one

@North Carolina 96, Miami 71 - very important for UNC to reestablish itself as a 3 seed at worst
@Louisville 71, Duke 64
@Georgia Tech 63, Notre Dame 62 - at this point, it only hurts seeding for UND, but it is probably worth a seed line
Pittsburgh 66, @Syracuse 52 - people shouldn't be assuming Syracuse is home free
@Virginia Tech 83, Florida St 73 - just an absolutely catastrophic loss
@NC State 77, Clemso 74 - and speaking of castastrophic losses, this might be it for Clemson

@Cincinnati 65, UConn 60 - this just draws both nearer to the cutline.  More confusion

Big 12:
Kansas 72, @Kansas St 63
Oklahoma 76, @West Virginia 62 - feel better about keeping Oklahoma on the 1 line now.  Kansas/Oklahoma/Villanova seems like an obvious order to me again
@Iowa St 92, TCU 83
Baylor 78, @Texas 64
Texas Tech 71, @Oklahoma St 61 - most important bubble win of the day, maybe

Big East:
@Villanova 77, Butler 67
Xavier 88, @Georgetown 70 - GU is dead

@Indiana 77, Purdue 73 - status quo for both teams
Ohio St 65, @Nebraska 62 (OT) - OSU...not dead yet!

@Oregon 91, Oregon St 81
@Washington 64, Stanford 53 - the bare minimum UW needed to stay alive
@UCLA 77, Colorado 53 - I'd prefer it if Colorado avoided these kinds of games so that they can stay a step ahead of the bubble

@Texas A&M 79, Kentucky 77 (OT)
@South Carolina 73, Florida 69 (OT) - is Florida in trouble now?  My answer: maybe
@Vanderbilt 80, Georgia 67 - a loser leaves town bubble game!  Go away, Georgia
Mississippi St 67, @Alabama 61 - what a horrible loss
@Tennessee 81, LSU 65 - what

UNC-Greensboro 79, @Chattanooga 64 - regrettably, we've reached endgame on Chattanooga.  UNC-G is .500 in conference, can't do this at home

Sun Belt:
Arkansas-Little Rock 76, @Georgia Southern 61

St Mary's 63, @Gonzaga 58
@BYU 91, San Diego 33 - wat

NITWatch:  Marquette wins on the road and is on track...Evansville over SIU and UNI beat Illinois St at home, there's room for probably 1, maybe 2 of these teams in the NIT at best...Mountain West is a mess.  New Mexico lost to Air Force and UNLV beat Nevada.  Fresno won at least; who knows what the pecking order is here...Ole Miss wins on the road and might get there...

- Hawaii on the road beats UC Irvine, they should win the Big West, and UCI might be on the wrong side of the NIT bubble now
- UNC-Wilmington wins again and frankly should end the CAA race soon.  Meanwhile, William & Mary loses at home to terrible Drexel.  What?!
- IvyWatch:  Princeton, Columbia, Yale all hold serve
- Belmont beat Tennessee Tech and should put away the OVC from here
- Stephen F Austin is going to run the table in the Southland and no one should care because that conference was absolute garbage this year
- IPFW and South Dakota St hold serve in the Summit


HenryMuto said...

Hard to believe Ohio State still has a shot to make the NCAA tournament after their terrible start to the season losing 3 straight games 2 at home to UTA and LA Tech then losing to Memphis. If they had won a couple of those games their RPI wouldn't be around 75 and they would have a much better looking record instead of 18-10. So they are 10-5 in the Big 10 yet no real chance of an at large bid right now because they only have wins over Kentucky and Michigan that matter. Hard to believe a Big 10 team could go 11-7 and not make the NCAA tournament but that would likely be the case with Ohio State so I think they need to win 2 of their last 3 games to have a shot this would then give them 4 NCAA level wins and 3 protected seed type wins but that is a lot to ask even at home to win against Michigan State and Iowa. This might get their RPI up into the low 60s if they win both games.

Gonzaga on the other hand I think they have reached their end game with wins only over UCONN and Washington just 1 NCAA level 1 and 1 bubble team like not to make the NCAA. I can't see Gonzaga making it.

Monmouth survived today in OT to keep hopes alive barely.

Doug Schloemer said...

The American is a mess -- 6 teams with 9-10 wins. Who's in or out at the moment?

Andrew said...

Those last 3 games for Ohio St are why they're alive. Signature win chances everywhere, which means everything this time of year.

I'm going to miss my predictions on the American. I can feel it already. UConn and Cincy probably in for now, although I'm really praying we get these 4 teams against each other in the conference tourney semis. It just might be as simple as putting the two winners in the bracket.