This is part 8 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Stony Brook 14-2 (23-6)
Albany 13-3 (24-7)
New Hampshire 11-5 (18-11)
UMass-Lowell 7-9 (11-18)
Binghamton 5-11 (8-21)
Maine 4-12 (8-21)
Hartford 4-12 (9-22)
UMBC 3-13 (7-24)
Tournament format:
Here's another all-campus site format. The 8 teams play Wednesday March 2, Monday March 7, and Saturday March 12. Boy, they space things out. One wrinke: in the semis, the lowest seed plays the highest seed.
UMass-Lowell is still in their D1 transition and is ineligible.
The matchups:
8) UMBC at 1) Stony Brook
7) Hartford at 2) Albany
6) Maine at 3) Vermont
5) Binghamton at 4) New Hampshire
The stakes:
Is Stony Brook an at-large contender? RPI of 62, non-con SoS of 46, 3 Top 100 wins, 11-5 road/neutral...butnah. Princeton, Hofstra, and Albany at home are the 3 top 100 wins, and while losses to Vandy and Notre Dame are fine, you have to beat one to get a quality win, or at least not lose to Northeastern and WKU. Harsh but that's the way it works. The non-con SoS is very much a product of avoiding RPI calorie bombs more than playing top teams.
Still, a weird dynamic. A-East is 23rd in the RPI, which is actually pretty good for them. Usually the conference is trapped on the 15 or 16 line. But the Brook has a profile that should earn them a 14 seed, or even a 13. However, the committee has shown in the past that when it comes to 14-15-16 seeds, they'll pay more attention to your conference RPI than your actual RPI. I think the end result will be a 14 seed this year, maybe 13 if enough upsets happen.
Albany is actually inside the Top 100 RPI. It won't be good enough for the NIT, but hey now. That's good work for an A-East team, and they're a postseason lock. The conference really had separation with their top 4 teams, and New Hampshire and Vermont more or less deserve postseason bids based on profile.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Northeast conference tournament preview
This is part 7 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
Wagner 13-5 (20-9)
Fairleigh Dickinson 11-7 (15-14)
Sacred Heart 11-7 (12-17)
St Francis(NY) 11-7 (15-16)
Mount St Mary's 10-8 (13-18)
LIU 9-9 (15-14)
St Francis(PA) 9-9 (13-16)
Robert Morris 8-10 (10-21)
Bryant 5-13 (8-23)
Central Connecticut St 3-15 (4-25)
Tournament format:
All games are played at the site of the highest seed left. Wednesday March 2, Saturday March 5, and Tuesday March 8 are the relevant dates. Only the top 8 play this tournament, but I'm guessing no one's gonna miss Bryant or CCSU here.
The matchups:
8) Robert Morris at 1) Wagner
5) Mount St Mary's at 4) St Francis(NY)
7) St Francis(PA) at 2) Fairleigh Dickinson
6) LIU at 3) Sacred Heart
The stakes:
Conference is 29th in the CRPI. Wagner's the only one sub-200. The winner's going to the 16 line, and probably Dayton. Easiest analysis ever.
Wagner's in the NIT at least. FDU isn't really even a viable postseason candidate based on resume, and LIU surely isn't. This conference is the most likely to be stuck with just 1 postseason team, if Wagner wins the conference tournament. 11-7 was 2nd place in this conference, so there isn't even a candidate based on conference performance. This is the easiest write-up I'll have this year.
The standings:
Wagner 13-5 (20-9)
Fairleigh Dickinson 11-7 (15-14)
Sacred Heart 11-7 (12-17)
St Francis(NY) 11-7 (15-16)
Mount St Mary's 10-8 (13-18)
LIU 9-9 (15-14)
St Francis(PA) 9-9 (13-16)
Robert Morris 8-10 (10-21)
Bryant 5-13 (8-23)
Central Connecticut St 3-15 (4-25)
Tournament format:
All games are played at the site of the highest seed left. Wednesday March 2, Saturday March 5, and Tuesday March 8 are the relevant dates. Only the top 8 play this tournament, but I'm guessing no one's gonna miss Bryant or CCSU here.
The matchups:
8) Robert Morris at 1) Wagner
5) Mount St Mary's at 4) St Francis(NY)
7) St Francis(PA) at 2) Fairleigh Dickinson
6) LIU at 3) Sacred Heart
The stakes:
Conference is 29th in the CRPI. Wagner's the only one sub-200. The winner's going to the 16 line, and probably Dayton. Easiest analysis ever.
Wagner's in the NIT at least. FDU isn't really even a viable postseason candidate based on resume, and LIU surely isn't. This conference is the most likely to be stuck with just 1 postseason team, if Wagner wins the conference tournament. 11-7 was 2nd place in this conference, so there isn't even a candidate based on conference performance. This is the easiest write-up I'll have this year.
2/29 S-CURVE
The 1 line: Kansas (24-4), Villanova (25-4), Virginia (22-6), Michigan St (24-5)
The 2 line: Miami (23-5), Oklahoma (22-6), Xavier (25-4), North Carolina (23-6)
The 3 line: Oregon (22-6), West Virginia (22-7), Utah (23-7), Maryland (22-6)
The 4 line: Iowa St (20-9), Duke (21-8), Iowa (20-8), Kentucky (21-8)
The 5 line: Baylor (20-8), Indiana (23-6), Texas (19-10), Purdue (22-7)
The 6 line: California (21-8), Arizona (22-7), Notre Dame (19-9), Texas A&M (22-7)
The 7 line: Pittsburgh (19-8), Colorado (20-9), Seton Hall (21-7), Dayton (22-6)
The 8 line: Wisconsin (19-10), St Joseph's (24-5), Syracuse (19-10), Wichita St (22-7)
The 9 line: Providence (20-9), South Carolina (22-6), Texas Tech (18-10), USC (19-10)
The 10 line: Monmouth (25-6), Cincinnati (21-8), Butler (19-9), UConn (20-9)
The 11 line: St Mary's (23-4), Vanderbilt (18-11), Oregon St (16-10), St Bonaventure (20-7), Valparaiso (24-5), Michigan (19-10)
The 12 line: VCU (21-8), Arkansas-Little Rock (24-3), Temple (18-10), San Diego St (19-8)
The 13 line: Chattanooga (22-5), Hofstra (21-8), Akron (21-7), IPFW (21-8)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-6), Yale (19-6), Hawaii (21-4), UAB (23-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-10), Stephen F Austin (18-5), New Mexico St (19-9), Weber St (19-7)
The 16 line: North Florida (18-10), High Point (17-9), Bucknell (16-12), Wagner (19-9), Hampton (16-9), Texas Southern (15-12)
Next 4 in:
USC
Monmouth***
Cincinnati
Butler
UConn
Last 4 in:
St Mary's***
Vanderbilt
Oregon St
St Bonaventure
Valparaiso***
Michigan
Last 4 out:
Florida
Gonzaga
Tulsa
VCU***
George Washington
Next 4 out:
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Temple***
Florida St
Alabama
BYU
San Diego St***
Chattanooga***
Ohio St
NIT:
The 1 line: Florida (17-12), Gonzaga (22-7), Tulsa (19-10), George Washington (21-8)
The 2 line: Florida St (17-12), Alabama (17-11), BYU (21-9), Ohio St (19-11)
The 3 line: Washington (16-13), Stanford (14-12), Georgia Tech (17-12), LSU (17-12)
The 4 line: Kansas St (15-14), UCLA (15-14), Clemson (16-12), Davidson (16-10)
The 5 line: UNC-Wilmington (20-7), Princeton (19-5), Houston (21-8), Georgia (15-12)
The 6 line: Creighton (18-11), South Dakota St (21-7), William & Mary (17-10), Fresno St (18-9)
The 7 line: Boise St (17-10), UC-Irvine (20-8), Evansville (22-8), Ole Miss (18-11)
The 8 line: Ohio (18-9), Marquette (18-11), Penn St (15-14), Virginia Tech (16-13)
Last 4 out: Illinois St (17-13), Northwestern (18-11), James Madison (20-10), Rhode Island (16-13)
The 2 line: Miami (23-5), Oklahoma (22-6), Xavier (25-4), North Carolina (23-6)
The 3 line: Oregon (22-6), West Virginia (22-7), Utah (23-7), Maryland (22-6)
The 4 line: Iowa St (20-9), Duke (21-8), Iowa (20-8), Kentucky (21-8)
The 5 line: Baylor (20-8), Indiana (23-6), Texas (19-10), Purdue (22-7)
The 6 line: California (21-8), Arizona (22-7), Notre Dame (19-9), Texas A&M (22-7)
The 7 line: Pittsburgh (19-8), Colorado (20-9), Seton Hall (21-7), Dayton (22-6)
The 8 line: Wisconsin (19-10), St Joseph's (24-5), Syracuse (19-10), Wichita St (22-7)
The 9 line: Providence (20-9), South Carolina (22-6), Texas Tech (18-10), USC (19-10)
The 10 line: Monmouth (25-6), Cincinnati (21-8), Butler (19-9), UConn (20-9)
The 11 line: St Mary's (23-4), Vanderbilt (18-11), Oregon St (16-10), St Bonaventure (20-7), Valparaiso (24-5), Michigan (19-10)
The 12 line: VCU (21-8), Arkansas-Little Rock (24-3), Temple (18-10), San Diego St (19-8)
The 13 line: Chattanooga (22-5), Hofstra (21-8), Akron (21-7), IPFW (21-8)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-6), Yale (19-6), Hawaii (21-4), UAB (23-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-10), Stephen F Austin (18-5), New Mexico St (19-9), Weber St (19-7)
The 16 line: North Florida (18-10), High Point (17-9), Bucknell (16-12), Wagner (19-9), Hampton (16-9), Texas Southern (15-12)
Next 4 in:
USC
Monmouth***
Cincinnati
Butler
UConn
Last 4 in:
St Mary's***
Vanderbilt
Oregon St
St Bonaventure
Valparaiso***
Michigan
Last 4 out:
Florida
Gonzaga
Tulsa
VCU***
George Washington
Next 4 out:
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Temple***
Florida St
Alabama
BYU
San Diego St***
Chattanooga***
Ohio St
NIT:
The 1 line: Florida (17-12), Gonzaga (22-7), Tulsa (19-10), George Washington (21-8)
The 2 line: Florida St (17-12), Alabama (17-11), BYU (21-9), Ohio St (19-11)
The 3 line: Washington (16-13), Stanford (14-12), Georgia Tech (17-12), LSU (17-12)
The 4 line: Kansas St (15-14), UCLA (15-14), Clemson (16-12), Davidson (16-10)
The 5 line: UNC-Wilmington (20-7), Princeton (19-5), Houston (21-8), Georgia (15-12)
The 6 line: Creighton (18-11), South Dakota St (21-7), William & Mary (17-10), Fresno St (18-9)
The 7 line: Boise St (17-10), UC-Irvine (20-8), Evansville (22-8), Ole Miss (18-11)
The 8 line: Ohio (18-9), Marquette (18-11), Penn St (15-14), Virginia Tech (16-13)
Last 4 out: Illinois St (17-13), Northwestern (18-11), James Madison (20-10), Rhode Island (16-13)
2/29 BRACKET
SOUTH 34
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (24-4) vs. 16) Bucknell (16-12)/Texas Southern (15-12)
8) Wisconsin (19-10) vs. 9) USC (19-10)
@Oklahoma City
4) Duke (21-8) vs. 13) Chattanooga (22-5)
5) Indiana (23-6) vs. 12) Vanderbilt (18-11)/Oregon St (16-10)
@Providence
3) Maryland (22-6) vs. 14) Yale (19-6)
6) California (21-8) vs. 11)
@St Louis
2) Xavier (25-4) vs. 15) Weber St (19-7)
7) Pittsburgh (19-8) vs. 10) Cincinnati (21-8)
WEST 34
@St Louis
1) Michigan St (24-5) vs. 16) Wagner (19-9)/Hampton (16-9)
8) Syracuse (19-10) vs. 9) Providence (20-9)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (20-9) vs. 13) Akron (21-7)
5) Purdue (22-7) vs. 12) San Diego St (19-8)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (22-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (21-4)
6) Texas A&M (22-7) vs. 11) VCU (21-8)
@Brooklyn
2) North Carolina (23-6) vs. 15) Belmont (19-10)
7) Seton Hall (21-7) vs. 10) Monmouth (25-6)
MIDWEST 35
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (22-6) vs. 16) North Florida (18-10)
8) Wichita St (22-7) vs. 9) South Carolina (22-6)
@Des Moines
4) Iowa (20-8) vs. 13) Hofstra (21-8)
5) Baylor (20-8) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (24-3)
@Denver
3) Utah (23-7) vs. 14) UAB (23-5)
6) Notre Dame (19-9) vs. 11) St Mary's (23-4)
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma (22-6) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (18-5)
7) Colorado (20-9) vs. 10) Butler (19-9)
EAST 33
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (25-4) vs. 16) High Point (17-9)
8) St Joseph's (24-5) vs. 9) Texas Tech (18-10)
@Spokane
4) Kentucky (21-8) vs. 13) IPFW (21-8)
5) Texas (19-10) vs. 12) Temple (18-10)
@Providence
3) West Virginia (22-7) vs. 14) Stony Brook (21-6)
6) Arizona (22-7) vs. 11) St Bonaventure (20-7)/Michigan (19-10)
@Raleigh
2) Miami (23-5) vs. 15) New Mexico St (19-9)
7) Dayton (22-6) vs. 10) UConn (20-9)
NIT
1) Florida (17-12) vs. 8) Virginia Tech (16-13)
4) Clemson (16-12) vs. 5) UNC-Wilmington (20-7)
3) LSU (17-12) vs. 6) Houston (21-8)
2) Florida St (17-12) vs. 7) Ole Miss (18-11)
1) George Washington (21-8) vs. 8) Penn St (15-14)
4) Georgia (15-12) vs. 5) Davidson (16-10)
3) Stanford (14-12) vs. 6) Creighton (18-11)
2) Ohio St (19-11) vs. 7) Ohio (18-9)
1) Tulsa (19-10) vs. 8) Marquette (18-11)
4) Kansas St (15-14) vs. 5) Princeton (19-5)
3) Georgia Tech (17-12) vs. 6) William & Mary (17-10)
2) Alabama (17-11) vs. 7) Evansville (22-8)
1) Gonzaga (22-7) vs. 8) UC-Irvine (20-8)
4) UCLA (15-14) vs. 5) Fresno St (18-9)
3) Washington (16-13) vs. 6) South Dakota St (21-7)
2) BYU (21-9) vs. 7) Boise St (17-10)
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (24-4) vs. 16) Bucknell (16-12)/Texas Southern (15-12)
8) Wisconsin (19-10) vs. 9) USC (19-10)
@Oklahoma City
4) Duke (21-8) vs. 13) Chattanooga (22-5)
5) Indiana (23-6) vs. 12) Vanderbilt (18-11)/Oregon St (16-10)
@Providence
3) Maryland (22-6) vs. 14) Yale (19-6)
6) California (21-8) vs. 11)
@St Louis
2) Xavier (25-4) vs. 15) Weber St (19-7)
7) Pittsburgh (19-8) vs. 10) Cincinnati (21-8)
WEST 34
@St Louis
1) Michigan St (24-5) vs. 16) Wagner (19-9)/Hampton (16-9)
8) Syracuse (19-10) vs. 9) Providence (20-9)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (20-9) vs. 13) Akron (21-7)
5) Purdue (22-7) vs. 12) San Diego St (19-8)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (22-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (21-4)
6) Texas A&M (22-7) vs. 11) VCU (21-8)
@Brooklyn
2) North Carolina (23-6) vs. 15) Belmont (19-10)
7) Seton Hall (21-7) vs. 10) Monmouth (25-6)
MIDWEST 35
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (22-6) vs. 16) North Florida (18-10)
8) Wichita St (22-7) vs. 9) South Carolina (22-6)
@Des Moines
4) Iowa (20-8) vs. 13) Hofstra (21-8)
5) Baylor (20-8) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (24-3)
@Denver
3) Utah (23-7) vs. 14) UAB (23-5)
6) Notre Dame (19-9) vs. 11) St Mary's (23-4)
@Oklahoma City
2) Oklahoma (22-6) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (18-5)
7) Colorado (20-9) vs. 10) Butler (19-9)
EAST 33
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (25-4) vs. 16) High Point (17-9)
8) St Joseph's (24-5) vs. 9) Texas Tech (18-10)
@Spokane
4) Kentucky (21-8) vs. 13) IPFW (21-8)
5) Texas (19-10) vs. 12) Temple (18-10)
@Providence
3) West Virginia (22-7) vs. 14) Stony Brook (21-6)
6) Arizona (22-7) vs. 11) St Bonaventure (20-7)/Michigan (19-10)
@Raleigh
2) Miami (23-5) vs. 15) New Mexico St (19-9)
7) Dayton (22-6) vs. 10) UConn (20-9)
NIT
1) Florida (17-12) vs. 8) Virginia Tech (16-13)
4) Clemson (16-12) vs. 5) UNC-Wilmington (20-7)
3) LSU (17-12) vs. 6) Houston (21-8)
2) Florida St (17-12) vs. 7) Ole Miss (18-11)
1) George Washington (21-8) vs. 8) Penn St (15-14)
4) Georgia (15-12) vs. 5) Davidson (16-10)
3) Stanford (14-12) vs. 6) Creighton (18-11)
2) Ohio St (19-11) vs. 7) Ohio (18-9)
1) Tulsa (19-10) vs. 8) Marquette (18-11)
4) Kansas St (15-14) vs. 5) Princeton (19-5)
3) Georgia Tech (17-12) vs. 6) William & Mary (17-10)
2) Alabama (17-11) vs. 7) Evansville (22-8)
1) Gonzaga (22-7) vs. 8) UC-Irvine (20-8)
4) UCLA (15-14) vs. 5) Fresno St (18-9)
3) Washington (16-13) vs. 6) South Dakota St (21-7)
2) BYU (21-9) vs. 7) Boise St (17-10)
2/28 recap
@Seton Hall 90, Xavier 81 - Seton Hall. Lockbox
@Michigan St 88, Penn St 57
@Ohio St 68, Iowa 64 - Iowa ain't getting a 2 seed either
@Oregon 86, Washington 73
@Pittsburgh 76, Duke 62 - Pitt. Lockbox
@SMU 74, Tulane 53
@St Joseph's 77, St Louis 63
Valparaiso 70, @Green Bay 68
@Colorado 79, Arizona St 69 - important hold, Colorado should be home free now
@Monmouth 77, Niagara 68
@Wisconsin 68, Michigan 57 - uh oh, Michigan...
@Oregon St 69, Washington St 49
@California 87, USC 65 - okay, USC has a legitimate problem now
Catastrophic losses of the day:
Houston 75, @UConn 68 - what?
@Memphis 92, Tulsa 82 - good job, AAC
NITWatch: Creighton at home over St John's...VaTech won on the road at Wake; they have the .500 ACC record but not the RPI for the NIT...Nevada over Colorado St
@Michigan St 88, Penn St 57
@Ohio St 68, Iowa 64 - Iowa ain't getting a 2 seed either
@Oregon 86, Washington 73
@Pittsburgh 76, Duke 62 - Pitt. Lockbox
@SMU 74, Tulane 53
@St Joseph's 77, St Louis 63
Valparaiso 70, @Green Bay 68
@Colorado 79, Arizona St 69 - important hold, Colorado should be home free now
@Monmouth 77, Niagara 68
@Wisconsin 68, Michigan 57 - uh oh, Michigan...
@Oregon St 69, Washington St 49
@California 87, USC 65 - okay, USC has a legitimate problem now
Catastrophic losses of the day:
Houston 75, @UConn 68 - what?
@Memphis 92, Tulsa 82 - good job, AAC
NITWatch: Creighton at home over St John's...VaTech won on the road at Wake; they have the .500 ACC record but not the RPI for the NIT...Nevada over Colorado St
Sunday, February 28, 2016
Ohio Valley conference tournament preview
This is part 6 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The standings:
East:
Belmont 12-4 (20-10)
Morehead St 11-5 (18-11)
Tennessee St 11-5 (20-9)
Tennessee Tech 11-5 (19-10)
Eastern Kentucky 6-10 (15-16)
Jacksonville St 4-12 (8-23)
West:
Tennessee-Martin 10-6 (18-13)
Murray St 10-6 (16-13)
Eastern Illinois 9-7 (13-16)
Austin Peay 7-9 (14-17)
SIU-Edwardsville 3-13 (6-22)
SE Missouri St 2-14 (5-24)
Tournament format:
Here's some unusual setups. First, in a 12 team conference, only the top 8 are playing. Presumably this helps prevent some upsets, and also the top teams (read: Belmont and Murray in years past) from digesting RPI calorie bombs in the quarterfinals.
Next, we got a double bye situation. The top 2 seeds get a double bye to the semis and the 3/4 seeds get a single bye. And divisions matter. Tennessee-Martin has the 5th best record, but since they won the West, they get a 2 seed and the second double bye. Murray St lost the tiebreaker with them for the West, and careen all the way to the 6 seed. What a mess.
Nashville is a neutral site host. 4 straight days from Wednesday March 2 to Saturday March 5.
Whew.
The matchups:
1) Belmont vs. the winner of 4) Tennessee St and 5/8) Tennessee Tech/Austin Peay
2) Tennessee-Martin vs. the winner of 3) Morehead St and 6/7) Murray St/Eastern Illinois
The stakes:
I've had the conference leader most of the year on the 15 line. That seems low for a conference with Belmont and Murray in it, and one who has a conference RPI of 21. The 15 seeds were more a consequence of other leagues producing better top teams than usual (i.e., UALR in the Sun Belt, Chattanooga in the SoCon) that are pushing Belmont/TTU down the board a bit. Once a few upsets happen, it's likely Belmont would get to the 14 line and maybe even 13 (assuming they win, of course). Belmont has wins over Valpo and Marquette, so they're competent.
If someone else wins the conference tournament, it'll be a trickier situation. Most of the other RPIs of key teams range in the 120-150 range. Probably a 15 seed, but things can happen.
There could be an interesting situation with the Vegas/CIT/CBI tourneys. Plenty of candidates, and most of them worthy. TTU, TSU, Morehead, UT-M, Murray St...all 5 over .500, all 5 reasonably deserving a postseason bid, although Murray and UT-M are a step behind the other 3 in the RPI. If anything, the conference tournament could be really competitive from the 2nd round on.
The standings:
East:
Belmont 12-4 (20-10)
Morehead St 11-5 (18-11)
Tennessee St 11-5 (20-9)
Tennessee Tech 11-5 (19-10)
Eastern Kentucky 6-10 (15-16)
Jacksonville St 4-12 (8-23)
West:
Tennessee-Martin 10-6 (18-13)
Murray St 10-6 (16-13)
Eastern Illinois 9-7 (13-16)
Austin Peay 7-9 (14-17)
SIU-Edwardsville 3-13 (6-22)
SE Missouri St 2-14 (5-24)
Tournament format:
Here's some unusual setups. First, in a 12 team conference, only the top 8 are playing. Presumably this helps prevent some upsets, and also the top teams (read: Belmont and Murray in years past) from digesting RPI calorie bombs in the quarterfinals.
Next, we got a double bye situation. The top 2 seeds get a double bye to the semis and the 3/4 seeds get a single bye. And divisions matter. Tennessee-Martin has the 5th best record, but since they won the West, they get a 2 seed and the second double bye. Murray St lost the tiebreaker with them for the West, and careen all the way to the 6 seed. What a mess.
Nashville is a neutral site host. 4 straight days from Wednesday March 2 to Saturday March 5.
Whew.
The matchups:
1) Belmont vs. the winner of 4) Tennessee St and 5/8) Tennessee Tech/Austin Peay
2) Tennessee-Martin vs. the winner of 3) Morehead St and 6/7) Murray St/Eastern Illinois
The stakes:
I've had the conference leader most of the year on the 15 line. That seems low for a conference with Belmont and Murray in it, and one who has a conference RPI of 21. The 15 seeds were more a consequence of other leagues producing better top teams than usual (i.e., UALR in the Sun Belt, Chattanooga in the SoCon) that are pushing Belmont/TTU down the board a bit. Once a few upsets happen, it's likely Belmont would get to the 14 line and maybe even 13 (assuming they win, of course). Belmont has wins over Valpo and Marquette, so they're competent.
If someone else wins the conference tournament, it'll be a trickier situation. Most of the other RPIs of key teams range in the 120-150 range. Probably a 15 seed, but things can happen.
There could be an interesting situation with the Vegas/CIT/CBI tourneys. Plenty of candidates, and most of them worthy. TTU, TSU, Morehead, UT-M, Murray St...all 5 over .500, all 5 reasonably deserving a postseason bid, although Murray and UT-M are a step behind the other 3 in the RPI. If anything, the conference tournament could be really competitive from the 2nd round on.
Patriot League conference tournament preview
This is part 5 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The final standings:
Bucknell 14-4 (17-12)
Lehigh 13-5 (15-14)
Boston 11-7 (18-13)
Army 9-9 (18-12)
Colgate 9-9 (13-16)
American 9-9 (11-18)
Navy 9-9 (18-13)
Loyola(MD) 8-10 (9-20)
Holy Cross 5-13 (10-19)
Lafayette 3-15 (6-23)
Tournament format:
These will be campus site games for the entire tournament. Higher seed hosts. Tuesday March 1, Thursday March 3, Sunday March 6, Wednesday March 9.
The matchups:
8/9) Loyola(MD)/Holy Cross at 1) Bucknell
5) Colgate at 4) Army
7/10) Navy/Lafayette at 2) Lehigh
6) American at 3) Boston
The stakes:
The conference RPI isn't actually too bad at 24th, but all the individual RPIs aren't in great shape. Bucknell 168, Lehigh 165, Boston 185, etc etc. This is 16 seed territory, usually. If they get upsets elsewhere they can maybe get to the 15 line, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for any of them. There's just nothing in any of these resumes. Marginal W/L records, no quality wins, marginal at best schedules.
If anything, the top 3 seem to be safe bets for the CIT (or NIT autobid in Bucknell's case). It might be more interesting what happens to the service academies, Army and Navy, who are above .500 on truly weak overall schedules. They're hardly locks, and just based on merit, probably aren't postseason teams.
The final standings:
Bucknell 14-4 (17-12)
Lehigh 13-5 (15-14)
Boston 11-7 (18-13)
Army 9-9 (18-12)
Colgate 9-9 (13-16)
American 9-9 (11-18)
Navy 9-9 (18-13)
Loyola(MD) 8-10 (9-20)
Holy Cross 5-13 (10-19)
Lafayette 3-15 (6-23)
Tournament format:
These will be campus site games for the entire tournament. Higher seed hosts. Tuesday March 1, Thursday March 3, Sunday March 6, Wednesday March 9.
The matchups:
8/9) Loyola(MD)/Holy Cross at 1) Bucknell
5) Colgate at 4) Army
7/10) Navy/Lafayette at 2) Lehigh
6) American at 3) Boston
The stakes:
The conference RPI isn't actually too bad at 24th, but all the individual RPIs aren't in great shape. Bucknell 168, Lehigh 165, Boston 185, etc etc. This is 16 seed territory, usually. If they get upsets elsewhere they can maybe get to the 15 line, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for any of them. There's just nothing in any of these resumes. Marginal W/L records, no quality wins, marginal at best schedules.
If anything, the top 3 seem to be safe bets for the CIT (or NIT autobid in Bucknell's case). It might be more interesting what happens to the service academies, Army and Navy, who are above .500 on truly weak overall schedules. They're hardly locks, and just based on merit, probably aren't postseason teams.
MVC conference tournament preview
This is part 4 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The final standings:
Wichita St 16-2 (23-7)
Evansville 12-6 (23-8)
Illinois St 12-6 (18-13)
Northern Iowa 11-7 (19-12)
Southern Illinois 11-7 (22-9)
Indiana St 8-10 (12-18)
Missouri St 8-10 (14-16)
Loyola(Chi) 7-11 (14-16)
Bradley 3-15 (5-26)
Drake 2-16 (7-23)
Tournament format: Thursday March 3 to Sunday March 6. Everyone in St Louis on a neutral site.
The matchups:
1) Wichita St vs. 8/9) Loyola(Chi)/Bradley
4) Northern Iowa vs. 5) Southern Illinois
2) Evansville vs. 7/10) Missouri St/Drake
3) Illinois St vs. 6) Indiana St
The stakes:
Wichita St is a lock. I think. The non-con SoS is hanging tough at #4 in the country, they're 9-3 in true road games, and the win over Utah will be better than what some other bubble teams bring to the table. I think that's going to be enough to get them through no matter what happens here. I mean, as long as they don't punt a stupid game in the quarterfinals. The good news is neither UNI or SIU represent a terrible horrible loss, just a pretty bad one. I think they're home free.
4 fringe NIT candidates in this conference, and I'm not sure any of the 4 can get there. The best RPIs are Evansville (91) and UNI (93). That's really borderline, as far as past history goes with the NIT. Evansville is probably in the best shape, but don't have a single signature win. SIU and Evansville played poor non-con SoSs and will pay the price for it here.
I think you can make the argument that these four teams are all among the last 10 out on the NIT bubble, but they're all out.
The final standings:
Wichita St 16-2 (23-7)
Evansville 12-6 (23-8)
Illinois St 12-6 (18-13)
Northern Iowa 11-7 (19-12)
Southern Illinois 11-7 (22-9)
Indiana St 8-10 (12-18)
Missouri St 8-10 (14-16)
Loyola(Chi) 7-11 (14-16)
Bradley 3-15 (5-26)
Drake 2-16 (7-23)
Tournament format: Thursday March 3 to Sunday March 6. Everyone in St Louis on a neutral site.
The matchups:
1) Wichita St vs. 8/9) Loyola(Chi)/Bradley
4) Northern Iowa vs. 5) Southern Illinois
2) Evansville vs. 7/10) Missouri St/Drake
3) Illinois St vs. 6) Indiana St
The stakes:
Wichita St is a lock. I think. The non-con SoS is hanging tough at #4 in the country, they're 9-3 in true road games, and the win over Utah will be better than what some other bubble teams bring to the table. I think that's going to be enough to get them through no matter what happens here. I mean, as long as they don't punt a stupid game in the quarterfinals. The good news is neither UNI or SIU represent a terrible horrible loss, just a pretty bad one. I think they're home free.
4 fringe NIT candidates in this conference, and I'm not sure any of the 4 can get there. The best RPIs are Evansville (91) and UNI (93). That's really borderline, as far as past history goes with the NIT. Evansville is probably in the best shape, but don't have a single signature win. SIU and Evansville played poor non-con SoSs and will pay the price for it here.
I think you can make the argument that these four teams are all among the last 10 out on the NIT bubble, but they're all out.
2/27 recap
A-10:
Rhode Island 75, @Dayton 66 - okay, Dayton, we're gonna have some seed line issues to work out here
VCU 69, @George Washington 65 - well, finally VCU. Something significant, a road win. These A-10 schools might warrant a breakdown on their own, because the pecking order is very muddled now
@St Bonaventure 85, UMass 83
NITWatch: Davidson loses at Fordham, not a lock for the NIT yet
ACC:
@Virginia 79, North Carolina 74 - a really tricky dynamic emerging in the ACC. Will a conference championship matter to the committee? And how much? Virginia's 3rd in the ACC but 1st in resume value, I've had UNC on the 3 line on merit but others have them on the 1 line based on their ACC lead...and Miami needs to be discussed. This won't be solved for another couple weeks
@Miami 73, Louisville 65 - meanwhile, Miami and the 1 line has a chance. Not a great one, but a chance
@Florida St 77, Notre Dame 56 - not great for UND. Florida St needs so much more than this
@Syracuse 75, NC State 66
NITWatch: Georgia Tech beats hapless BC, should probably make the NIT at this point
AAC:
Cincinnati 65, @East Carolina 56
@Temple 63, Central Florida 61
Big 12:
@Kansas 67, Texas Tech 58
@Texas 76, Oklahoma 63 - this probably removes OU off the one line for good
West Virginia 70, @Oklahoma St 56
@Iowa St 80, Kansas St 61
Baylor 86, TCU 71
Big East:
Villanova 89, @Marquette 79
Butler 90, @Georgetown 87 (OT) - near disaster. But remember: road wins are never trivial
@Providence 87, DePaul 66
B1G:
@Purdue 83, Maryland 79 - man, Maryland fans are going to be so mad at their seed in March. 4 line incoming
NITWatch: Northwestern wins and stays on the bubble
Big West:
Hawaii and UC Irvine both win...both still in good shape for NIT at-large bids
CAA:
Hofstra and UNC-Wilmington win, and end up tied in the end. Hofstra gets the 1 seed and the NIT bid, UNC-Wilmington and William & Mary will enter as viable at-large candidates for the NIT
Ivy:
Princeton and Yale both win again, at this point the loser of this conference race is in great shape for the NIT
MVC:
@Wichita St 74, Illinois St 58
NITWatch: aside from that ISU loss, Evansville lost at home to UNI. I think the NIT pecking order will be Evansville/Illinois St/Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois, and all 4 might miss
Mountain West:
Boise St 66, @San Diego St 63 - sure, NOW Boise finds a signature win. Probably fatal for SDSU's at-large hopes
NITWatch: Fresno over New Mexico...if anything the MWC have themselves a chance at the NIT today
Pac-12:
@Utah 70, Arizona 64 - all of a sudden, Utah is a clear #2 in the conference pecking order, and probably a 4 seed. Arizona's seed will surprise people, it won't be great
NITWatch: Stanford beat UCLA at home, both headed to the NIT...I think. I'm pretty sure Stanford can't get all the way home
SEC:
@Vanderbilt 74, Kentucky 62 - my life would've been easier if Vandy had stayed buried. No idea what to do with them
Texas A&M 84, @Missouri 69
@Mississippi St 68, South Carolina 58 - jesus, South Carolina
@Alabama 65, Auburn 57
@LSU 96, Florida 91 - speaking of not knowing what to do, I think Florida might be out now, but heck if I know
NITWatch: Georgia over Ole Miss, Arkansas over Tennessee....Georgia/Ole Miss/Arkansas are all 8-8 in conference. Is there really room for all of them in the NIT? Georgia probably, the other 2...I'm not sure
SoCon:
@Chattanooga 77, Samford 66
Summit:
IPFW lost but still have their 1 seed. South Dakota St won and will need an at-large bid to make the NIT
Sun Belt:
@Arkansas-Little Rock 73, Texas St 68
WCC:
Gonzaga 71, @BYU 68 - first BYU: they're finally dead. Now, for the trickier case. Gonzaga. In? I think so for now. I think. I don't know. This is unchartered territory for them and for the committee, really
St Mary's 84, @San Francisco 72 - road wins are never trivial
Rhode Island 75, @Dayton 66 - okay, Dayton, we're gonna have some seed line issues to work out here
VCU 69, @George Washington 65 - well, finally VCU. Something significant, a road win. These A-10 schools might warrant a breakdown on their own, because the pecking order is very muddled now
@St Bonaventure 85, UMass 83
NITWatch: Davidson loses at Fordham, not a lock for the NIT yet
ACC:
@Virginia 79, North Carolina 74 - a really tricky dynamic emerging in the ACC. Will a conference championship matter to the committee? And how much? Virginia's 3rd in the ACC but 1st in resume value, I've had UNC on the 3 line on merit but others have them on the 1 line based on their ACC lead...and Miami needs to be discussed. This won't be solved for another couple weeks
@Miami 73, Louisville 65 - meanwhile, Miami and the 1 line has a chance. Not a great one, but a chance
@Florida St 77, Notre Dame 56 - not great for UND. Florida St needs so much more than this
@Syracuse 75, NC State 66
NITWatch: Georgia Tech beats hapless BC, should probably make the NIT at this point
AAC:
Cincinnati 65, @East Carolina 56
@Temple 63, Central Florida 61
Big 12:
@Kansas 67, Texas Tech 58
@Texas 76, Oklahoma 63 - this probably removes OU off the one line for good
West Virginia 70, @Oklahoma St 56
@Iowa St 80, Kansas St 61
Baylor 86, TCU 71
Big East:
Villanova 89, @Marquette 79
Butler 90, @Georgetown 87 (OT) - near disaster. But remember: road wins are never trivial
@Providence 87, DePaul 66
B1G:
@Purdue 83, Maryland 79 - man, Maryland fans are going to be so mad at their seed in March. 4 line incoming
NITWatch: Northwestern wins and stays on the bubble
Big West:
Hawaii and UC Irvine both win...both still in good shape for NIT at-large bids
CAA:
Hofstra and UNC-Wilmington win, and end up tied in the end. Hofstra gets the 1 seed and the NIT bid, UNC-Wilmington and William & Mary will enter as viable at-large candidates for the NIT
Ivy:
Princeton and Yale both win again, at this point the loser of this conference race is in great shape for the NIT
MVC:
@Wichita St 74, Illinois St 58
NITWatch: aside from that ISU loss, Evansville lost at home to UNI. I think the NIT pecking order will be Evansville/Illinois St/Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois, and all 4 might miss
Mountain West:
Boise St 66, @San Diego St 63 - sure, NOW Boise finds a signature win. Probably fatal for SDSU's at-large hopes
NITWatch: Fresno over New Mexico...if anything the MWC have themselves a chance at the NIT today
Pac-12:
@Utah 70, Arizona 64 - all of a sudden, Utah is a clear #2 in the conference pecking order, and probably a 4 seed. Arizona's seed will surprise people, it won't be great
NITWatch: Stanford beat UCLA at home, both headed to the NIT...I think. I'm pretty sure Stanford can't get all the way home
SEC:
@Vanderbilt 74, Kentucky 62 - my life would've been easier if Vandy had stayed buried. No idea what to do with them
Texas A&M 84, @Missouri 69
@Mississippi St 68, South Carolina 58 - jesus, South Carolina
@Alabama 65, Auburn 57
@LSU 96, Florida 91 - speaking of not knowing what to do, I think Florida might be out now, but heck if I know
NITWatch: Georgia over Ole Miss, Arkansas over Tennessee....Georgia/Ole Miss/Arkansas are all 8-8 in conference. Is there really room for all of them in the NIT? Georgia probably, the other 2...I'm not sure
SoCon:
@Chattanooga 77, Samford 66
Summit:
IPFW lost but still have their 1 seed. South Dakota St won and will need an at-large bid to make the NIT
Sun Belt:
@Arkansas-Little Rock 73, Texas St 68
WCC:
Gonzaga 71, @BYU 68 - first BYU: they're finally dead. Now, for the trickier case. Gonzaga. In? I think so for now. I think. I don't know. This is unchartered territory for them and for the committee, really
St Mary's 84, @San Francisco 72 - road wins are never trivial
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Big South conference tournament preview
This is part 3 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The final standings:
High Point 13-5 (20-9)
Winthrop 13-5 (20-9)
Coastal Carolina 12-6 (18-10)
UNC-Asheville 12-6 (19-11)
Liberty 10-8 (13-18)
Gardner-Webb 10-8 (15-15)
Radford 9-9 (16-14)
Longwood 5-13 (9-22)
Charleston Southern 5-13 (9-20)
Presbyterian 5-13 (10-19)
Campbell 5-13 (12-17)
Tournament format: all 11 teams are playing in your standard bracket format. Thursday March 3 to Sunday March 6. Campbell is the host institution. Somehow, I think the home-court advantage will not be significant.
The matchups:
1) High Point vs. 8/9) Longwood/Charleston Southern
4) UNC-Asheville vs. 5) Liberty
2) Winthrop vs. 7/10) Radford/Presbyterian
3) Coastal Carolina vs. 6/11) Gardner-Webb/Campbell
The stakes:
The conference is 25th in the conference RPI. Wintrhop has an RPI around 125, and the 2-4 seeds are hovering around 160. In total, those numbers should be enough to get those teams off the 16 line, although the 14 line is a bit optimistic. Obviously subject to change depending on who upsets who in other conferences, but I feel fairly secure playing any of those 4 teams on the 15 line. The analysis kind of begins and ends there.
High Point has the tiebreaker and therefore has the NIT bid if needed.
What about the CIT? Winthrop, CCU, and UNCA all have good enough resumes, it seems like. They'll probably have the option to play in it (or the CBI or Vegas). Radford and Gardner-Webb (if they beat Campbell) will be CIT-eligible, but their overall credentials are a bit dicier; they probably don't deserve a bid over any of the top four teams and there's probably not room for 5 or 6 postseason teams from this conference.
The final standings:
High Point 13-5 (20-9)
Winthrop 13-5 (20-9)
Coastal Carolina 12-6 (18-10)
UNC-Asheville 12-6 (19-11)
Liberty 10-8 (13-18)
Gardner-Webb 10-8 (15-15)
Radford 9-9 (16-14)
Longwood 5-13 (9-22)
Charleston Southern 5-13 (9-20)
Presbyterian 5-13 (10-19)
Campbell 5-13 (12-17)
Tournament format: all 11 teams are playing in your standard bracket format. Thursday March 3 to Sunday March 6. Campbell is the host institution. Somehow, I think the home-court advantage will not be significant.
The matchups:
1) High Point vs. 8/9) Longwood/Charleston Southern
4) UNC-Asheville vs. 5) Liberty
2) Winthrop vs. 7/10) Radford/Presbyterian
3) Coastal Carolina vs. 6/11) Gardner-Webb/Campbell
The stakes:
The conference is 25th in the conference RPI. Wintrhop has an RPI around 125, and the 2-4 seeds are hovering around 160. In total, those numbers should be enough to get those teams off the 16 line, although the 14 line is a bit optimistic. Obviously subject to change depending on who upsets who in other conferences, but I feel fairly secure playing any of those 4 teams on the 15 line. The analysis kind of begins and ends there.
High Point has the tiebreaker and therefore has the NIT bid if needed.
What about the CIT? Winthrop, CCU, and UNCA all have good enough resumes, it seems like. They'll probably have the option to play in it (or the CBI or Vegas). Radford and Gardner-Webb (if they beat Campbell) will be CIT-eligible, but their overall credentials are a bit dicier; they probably don't deserve a bid over any of the top four teams and there's probably not room for 5 or 6 postseason teams from this conference.
CAA conference tournament preview
This is part 2 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The final standings:
Hofstra 14-4 (22-8)
UNC-Wilmington 14-4 (22-7)
Towson 11-7 (20-11)
James Madison 11-7 (21-10)
William & Mary 11-7 (19-10)
Northeastern 9-9 (17-14)
Charleston 8-10 (16-13)
Elon 7-11 (16-15)
Drexel 3-15 (5-24)
Delaware 2-16 (7-22)
Tournament format: a standard setup, going 4 days from Friday, March 4 to Monday, March 7. All in a neutral site at Baltimore.
The matchups:
1) Hofstra vs. 8/9) Elon/Drexel
4) James Madison vs. 5) William & Mary
2) UNC-Wilmington vs. 7/10) Charleston/Delaware
3) Towson vs. 6) Northeastern
The stakes:
It was a banner year in the RPI, as the conference finished 9th behind the Big Six and the A-10/AAC. Usually a conference in that position has at least one viable at-large team, but not the case. The real strength of the conference is having only two teams that were truly in the dumps. They have 8(!) teams inside the RPI Top 150, which is really commendable. Nobody in the conference truly scheduled bad, and if one team had been able to establish itself during conference play, we would've had an interesting situation. Alas, no one is quite bubble worthy. Hofstra can make a decent argument (beating N-FSU, @St Bonaventure, but lost just one or two too many (N-Indiana St, @Siena, @Stony Brook). The only win by a conference mate over a surefire tournament team is Northeastern > Miami, but they're obviously buried in the standings. As for Hofstra, I wouldn't be surprised if they showed up on the committee's consideration board, but I think there's too much traffic in front of them to actually make their way all the way to the cutline.
The conference will likely get rewarded with a 13 seed, maybe 12, in March. Hofstra has the NIT auto-bid over UNCW. So, can UNCW get an at-large bid in the NIT? Possible, perhaps even probable. A co-champion of the #9 conference in the country? The NIT committee is very likely to reward that. However, on the other end, their best non-con win is ETSU and their non-con SoS is 294. No wins over BCS-like teams. The NIT committee usually doesn't give at-large bids to those profiles. I think, however, the co-champion argument will win out.
William & Mary is the other team with a legit argument to be in the NIT. They have the raw RPI number, and did at least beat NC State on the road and has a top 50 non-con SoS. They also split with UNCW if it comes to that. I've got W&M as a bubble team for the NIT right now. We'll see. I do think UNCW is going to be ahead of W&M in the pecking order, if only because they beat them by 3 games in the conference standings. The NIT will respect that, I think. James Madison and Towson are lagging behind the other 3 in overall profiles, and there likely won't be room for them in the NIT.
Alas, one minor benefit to the big year is the conference should put 8 of their 10 teams in a postseason competition, provided everyone wants to play. Towson, James Madison, Northeastern, Charleston, Elon. All top 150 RPIs, all figure to be top targets of the Vegas/CBI/CIT. It's probably not the reward the conference had in mind with its 9th ranked RPI, but it'll have to do.
The final standings:
Hofstra 14-4 (22-8)
UNC-Wilmington 14-4 (22-7)
Towson 11-7 (20-11)
James Madison 11-7 (21-10)
William & Mary 11-7 (19-10)
Northeastern 9-9 (17-14)
Charleston 8-10 (16-13)
Elon 7-11 (16-15)
Drexel 3-15 (5-24)
Delaware 2-16 (7-22)
Tournament format: a standard setup, going 4 days from Friday, March 4 to Monday, March 7. All in a neutral site at Baltimore.
The matchups:
1) Hofstra vs. 8/9) Elon/Drexel
4) James Madison vs. 5) William & Mary
2) UNC-Wilmington vs. 7/10) Charleston/Delaware
3) Towson vs. 6) Northeastern
The stakes:
It was a banner year in the RPI, as the conference finished 9th behind the Big Six and the A-10/AAC. Usually a conference in that position has at least one viable at-large team, but not the case. The real strength of the conference is having only two teams that were truly in the dumps. They have 8(!) teams inside the RPI Top 150, which is really commendable. Nobody in the conference truly scheduled bad, and if one team had been able to establish itself during conference play, we would've had an interesting situation. Alas, no one is quite bubble worthy. Hofstra can make a decent argument (beating N-FSU, @St Bonaventure, but lost just one or two too many (N-Indiana St, @Siena, @Stony Brook). The only win by a conference mate over a surefire tournament team is Northeastern > Miami, but they're obviously buried in the standings. As for Hofstra, I wouldn't be surprised if they showed up on the committee's consideration board, but I think there's too much traffic in front of them to actually make their way all the way to the cutline.
The conference will likely get rewarded with a 13 seed, maybe 12, in March. Hofstra has the NIT auto-bid over UNCW. So, can UNCW get an at-large bid in the NIT? Possible, perhaps even probable. A co-champion of the #9 conference in the country? The NIT committee is very likely to reward that. However, on the other end, their best non-con win is ETSU and their non-con SoS is 294. No wins over BCS-like teams. The NIT committee usually doesn't give at-large bids to those profiles. I think, however, the co-champion argument will win out.
William & Mary is the other team with a legit argument to be in the NIT. They have the raw RPI number, and did at least beat NC State on the road and has a top 50 non-con SoS. They also split with UNCW if it comes to that. I've got W&M as a bubble team for the NIT right now. We'll see. I do think UNCW is going to be ahead of W&M in the pecking order, if only because they beat them by 3 games in the conference standings. The NIT will respect that, I think. James Madison and Towson are lagging behind the other 3 in overall profiles, and there likely won't be room for them in the NIT.
Alas, one minor benefit to the big year is the conference should put 8 of their 10 teams in a postseason competition, provided everyone wants to play. Towson, James Madison, Northeastern, Charleston, Elon. All top 150 RPIs, all figure to be top targets of the Vegas/CBI/CIT. It's probably not the reward the conference had in mind with its 9th ranked RPI, but it'll have to do.
Friday, February 26, 2016
2/26 recap
Valparaiso 80, @Milwaukee 76 (OT)
@Monmouth 79, Rider 58
IvyWatch: Princeton over Columbia, and we're now set up for Princeton and Yale to contest this conference by themselves
MACWatch: Akron won, but it's too late for them
@Monmouth 79, Rider 58
IvyWatch: Princeton over Columbia, and we're now set up for Princeton and Yale to contest this conference by themselves
MACWatch: Akron won, but it's too late for them
Atlantic Sun conference tournament preview
This is part 1 of a 32-part series that will take a look at every conference and conference tournament in the country. We'll recap who's playing and what the stakes are for each team in the conference.
The final standings:
North Florida 10-4 (21-10)
NJIT 8-6 (17-13)
Jacksonville 8-6 (16-15)
FGCU 8-6 (17-13)
Kennesaw St 7-7 (11-19)
Lipscomb 7-7 (11-20)
Stetson 4-10 (10-21)
South Carolina Upstate 4-10 (10-21)
Tournament format: three rounds, all home games at the higher seed. Tuesday March 1, Thursday March 3, Sunday March 6 are the dates.
The matchups:
8) South Carolina Upstate at 1) North Florida
7) Stetson at 2) NJIT
6) Lipscomb at 3) Jacksonville
5) Kennesaw St at 4) FGCU
The stakes:
UNF's RPI is in the 150s, everyone else is lower. The conference is 28th of 32 in CRPI. With those numbers, the only chance the conference has of missing Dayton is if North Florida wins. If they do, they might miss the 16 line altogether given upsets elsewhere are inevitable. So, the stakes for the conference are straightforward.
The CIT will have a bit of a choice between three eligible teams. NJIT has by far the best RPI of the 3, so perhaps a modest advantage for them. Odds are someone will get into the CIT. However, there's always a couple dozen eligible teams who don't get invited to the CBI/CIT every year, and these other teams fit the profile of the type of team wind up on that list of two dozen.
The final standings:
North Florida 10-4 (21-10)
NJIT 8-6 (17-13)
Jacksonville 8-6 (16-15)
FGCU 8-6 (17-13)
Kennesaw St 7-7 (11-19)
Lipscomb 7-7 (11-20)
Stetson 4-10 (10-21)
South Carolina Upstate 4-10 (10-21)
Tournament format: three rounds, all home games at the higher seed. Tuesday March 1, Thursday March 3, Sunday March 6 are the dates.
The matchups:
8) South Carolina Upstate at 1) North Florida
7) Stetson at 2) NJIT
6) Lipscomb at 3) Jacksonville
5) Kennesaw St at 4) FGCU
The stakes:
UNF's RPI is in the 150s, everyone else is lower. The conference is 28th of 32 in CRPI. With those numbers, the only chance the conference has of missing Dayton is if North Florida wins. If they do, they might miss the 16 line altogether given upsets elsewhere are inevitable. So, the stakes for the conference are straightforward.
The CIT will have a bit of a choice between three eligible teams. NJIT has by far the best RPI of the 3, so perhaps a modest advantage for them. Odds are someone will get into the CIT. However, there's always a couple dozen eligible teams who don't get invited to the CBI/CIT every year, and these other teams fit the profile of the type of team wind up on that list of two dozen.
2/26 BRACKET
The top 4 lines are a mess. I can't find a way for Oregon to play in the west regional, still. They're locked out because of conference conflicts of other conferences. The committee's going to have a real problem with geography this year - unless Xavier takes itself off the 1 line. Putting an ACC team in there causes a chain reaction that really helps the situation.
SOUTH 33
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (23-4) vs. 16) Montana (15-8)
8) Wisconsin (18-10) vs. 9) Providence (19-9)
@Spokane
4) Kentucky (21-7) vs. 13) IPFW (21-7)
5) Purdue (21-7) vs. 12) San Diego St (19-7)
@Des Moines
3) Iowa (20-7) vs. 14) UAB (22-5)
6) California (20-8) vs. 11) Butler (18-9)/Tulsa (19-9)
@Oklahoma City
2) Miami (22-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (17-5)
7) Texas A&M (21-7) vs. 10) Monmouth (23-6)
WEST 38
@St Louis
1) Xavier (25-3) vs. 16) North Florida (18-10)
8) USC (19-9) vs. 9) Texas Tech (18-9)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (19-9) vs. 13) Akron (20-7)
5) Arizona (22-6) vs. 12) VCU (20-8)
@Providence
3) Maryland (22-5) vs. 14) Yale (17-6)
6) Dayton (22-5) vs. 11) Valparaiso (22-5)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (23-5) vs. 15) Belmont (19-9)
7) South Carolina (22-5) vs. 10) UConn (20-8)
EAST 34
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (24-4) vs. 16) Bucknell (15-12)/Wagner (18-9)
8) St Joseph's (23-5) vs. 9) Wichita St (21-7)
@Denver
4) Utah (21-7) vs. 13) Chattanooga (22-5)
5) Baylor (19-8) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (23-3)
@Brooklyn
3) West Virginia (21-7) vs. 14) Stony Brook (21-5)
6) Notre Dame (19-8) vs. 11) Michigan (19-9)/Florida (17-10)
@Raleigh
2) Virginia (21-6) vs. 15) Winthrop (17-8)
7) Colorado (19-9) vs. 10) George Washington (21-7)
MIDWEST 30
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (21-5) vs. 16) Hampton (15-9)/Texas Southern (14-12)
8) Seton Hall (20-7) vs. 9) Syracuse (18-10)
@Providence
4) Duke (21-7) vs. 13) Hofstra (20-8)
5) Indiana (23-6) vs. 12) Temple (17-10)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (21-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (20-4)
6) Texas (18-10) vs. 11) St Mary's (22-4)
@St Louis
2) Michigan St (22-5) vs. 15) New Mexico St (18-9)
7) Pittsburgh (18-8) vs. 10) Cincinnati (20-8)
SOUTH 33
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (23-4) vs. 16) Montana (15-8)
8) Wisconsin (18-10) vs. 9) Providence (19-9)
@Spokane
4) Kentucky (21-7) vs. 13) IPFW (21-7)
5) Purdue (21-7) vs. 12) San Diego St (19-7)
@Des Moines
3) Iowa (20-7) vs. 14) UAB (22-5)
6) California (20-8) vs. 11) Butler (18-9)/Tulsa (19-9)
@Oklahoma City
2) Miami (22-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (17-5)
7) Texas A&M (21-7) vs. 10) Monmouth (23-6)
WEST 38
@St Louis
1) Xavier (25-3) vs. 16) North Florida (18-10)
8) USC (19-9) vs. 9) Texas Tech (18-9)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (19-9) vs. 13) Akron (20-7)
5) Arizona (22-6) vs. 12) VCU (20-8)
@Providence
3) Maryland (22-5) vs. 14) Yale (17-6)
6) Dayton (22-5) vs. 11) Valparaiso (22-5)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (23-5) vs. 15) Belmont (19-9)
7) South Carolina (22-5) vs. 10) UConn (20-8)
EAST 34
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (24-4) vs. 16) Bucknell (15-12)/Wagner (18-9)
8) St Joseph's (23-5) vs. 9) Wichita St (21-7)
@Denver
4) Utah (21-7) vs. 13) Chattanooga (22-5)
5) Baylor (19-8) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (23-3)
@Brooklyn
3) West Virginia (21-7) vs. 14) Stony Brook (21-5)
6) Notre Dame (19-8) vs. 11) Michigan (19-9)/Florida (17-10)
@Raleigh
2) Virginia (21-6) vs. 15) Winthrop (17-8)
7) Colorado (19-9) vs. 10) George Washington (21-7)
MIDWEST 30
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (21-5) vs. 16) Hampton (15-9)/Texas Southern (14-12)
8) Seton Hall (20-7) vs. 9) Syracuse (18-10)
@Providence
4) Duke (21-7) vs. 13) Hofstra (20-8)
5) Indiana (23-6) vs. 12) Temple (17-10)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (21-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (20-4)
6) Texas (18-10) vs. 11) St Mary's (22-4)
@St Louis
2) Michigan St (22-5) vs. 15) New Mexico St (18-9)
7) Pittsburgh (18-8) vs. 10) Cincinnati (20-8)
2/26 NIT/CBI/CIT/Vegas projections
NIT projections:
The 1 line: Gonzaga (21-7), St Bonaventure (19-7), Oregon St (15-10), Vanderbilt (17-11)
The 2 line: Alabama (16-11), Florida St (16-12), Washington (16-12), BYU (21-8)
The 3 line: UCLA (15-13), Ohio St (18-11), Clemson (16-12), Creighton (17-11)
The 4 line: Davidson (16-9), Kansas St (15-13), Georgia (14-12), Princeton (17-5)
The 5 line: South Dakota St (20-7), LSU (16-12), UNC-Wilmington (19-7), Houston (20-8)
The 6 line: Georgia Tech (16-12), Stanford (13-12), UC-Irvine (19-8), Ole Miss (18-10)
The 7 line: William & Mary (17-9), Fresno St (18-9), Evansville (22-7), Ohio (17-9)
The 8 line: Georgetown (14-14), Boise St (16-10), Northwestern (17-11), Kent St (17-10)
Bracket: (because, let's face it, the committee will do significant changes to the seed lines to fit travel plans)
1) Gonzaga (21-7) vs. 8) Boise St (16-10)
4) UCLA (15-13) vs. 5) South Dakota St (20-7)
3) BYU (21-8) vs. 6) UC-Irvine (19-8)
2) Oregon St (15-10) vs. 7) Fresno St (18-9)
1) Vanderbilt (17-11) vs. 8) Kent St (17-10)
4) Kansas St (15-13) vs. 5) Stanford (13-12)
3) Creighton (17-11) vs. 6) Houston (20-8)
2) Washington (16-12) vs. 7) Northwestern (17-11)
1) St Bonaventure (19-7) vs. 8) Georgetown (14-14)
4) Davidson (16-9) vs. 5) LSU (16-12)
3) Clemson (16-12) vs. 6) Ole Miss (18-10)
2) Ohio St (18-11) vs. 7) William & Mary (17-9)
1) Alabama (16-11) vs. 8) Evansville (22-7)
4) Princeton (17-5) vs. 5) Georgia Tech (16-12)
3) Georgia (14-12) vs. 6) UNC-Wilmington (19-7)
2) Florida St (16-12) vs. 7) Ohio (17-9)
And now, welcome to the last CIT/CBI/Vegas projections of the year. Always remember that these are loose projections as best, as we don't know who will turn down a bid to these tournaments. The purpose here is to show the types of teams in play for each tournament, not to make concrete predictions for any individual team.
The Vegas 16. Again, remember that Vegas begins their own postseason tournament this year. A 16 team bracket, every game at a neutral site in Vegas. This is very wild speculation about who will show up. Take these not with a grain of salt but an entire salt factory. My guess is we see upper and high majors take spots in these tournaments as a preference to the CBI where you pay to host. I think Vegas will get first pick of many of the best teams available, since the neutral site format along with the quick nature of the tournament (the entire thing will take place over about 5 days) will attract many teams who would otherwise pass on the CBI and CIT.
Therefore, I'm taking the best 16 teams not in the NIT and projecting them here:
Arizona St (14-14) vs. Pepperdine (16-11)
Grand Canyon (22-4) vs. Nevada (15-10)
Virginia Tech (15-13) vs. Penn St (15-13)
Rhode Island (15-13) vs. Iona (17-10)
Marquette (18-10) vs. Illinois St (17-12)
Buffalo (15-12) vs. Marshall (15-13)
James Madison (19-10) vs. Oakland (20-10)
Texas-Arlington (17-9) vs. Omaha (16-12)
Next, the CIT, which will house the next 32 best mid-major teams.
Northeastern (15-14) vs. Albany (22-7)
Columbia (17-8) vs. Siena (19-11)
NJIT (16-13) vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (13-14)
Towson (18-10) vs. Lehigh (13-14)
Middle Tennessee (16-9) vs. Tennessee St (17-9)
Ball St (17-10) vs. High Point (16-9)
Northern Illinois (14-10) vs. Green Bay (16-11)
Southern Illinois (21-9) vs. Wright St (16-12)
East Tennessee St (18-10) vs. UNC-Asheville (17-10)
Tennessee Tech (16-10) vs. South Carolina St (14-12)
Louisiana Tech (19-7) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (14-12)
Louisiana-Lafayette (13-11) vs. Jackson St (13-12)
Northern Iowa (17-12) vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (19-6)
Weber St (18-7) vs. North Dakota St (16-11)
Long Beach St (13-13) vs. Cal-St Bakersfield (16-8)
UC-Santa Barbara (13-12) vs. San Francisco (14-13)
And finally, the CBI:
Duquesne (14-13) vs. Vermont (17-12)
Old Dominion (16-12) vs. Fairfield (18-11)
Richmond (14-13) vs. Memphis (15-13)
North Carolina St (14-14) vs. Charleston (15-12)
New Mexico (16-12) vs. Sam Houston St (12-11)
Colorado St (13-13) vs. Denver (14-14)
Arkansas (14-14) vs. Morehead St (15-11)
Toledo (16-11) vs. Milwaukee (16-11)
Best available left out of postseason:
Fordham (13-12), Elon (13-15), Eastern Michigan (11-13), UNLV (14-13)
Utah St (11-13), Georgia St (12-12), Furman (15-13), Mercer (16-12)
Detroit (13-13), Boston (16-13), Murray St (13-13), Tennessee-Martin (16-12)
UTEP (16-12), New Hampshire (15-11), Army (17-11), Navy (17-12)
Eastern Washington (14-11), Coastal Carolina (14-11), Idaho (15-11), FGCU (13-13)
The 1 line: Gonzaga (21-7), St Bonaventure (19-7), Oregon St (15-10), Vanderbilt (17-11)
The 2 line: Alabama (16-11), Florida St (16-12), Washington (16-12), BYU (21-8)
The 3 line: UCLA (15-13), Ohio St (18-11), Clemson (16-12), Creighton (17-11)
The 4 line: Davidson (16-9), Kansas St (15-13), Georgia (14-12), Princeton (17-5)
The 5 line: South Dakota St (20-7), LSU (16-12), UNC-Wilmington (19-7), Houston (20-8)
The 6 line: Georgia Tech (16-12), Stanford (13-12), UC-Irvine (19-8), Ole Miss (18-10)
The 7 line: William & Mary (17-9), Fresno St (18-9), Evansville (22-7), Ohio (17-9)
The 8 line: Georgetown (14-14), Boise St (16-10), Northwestern (17-11), Kent St (17-10)
Bracket: (because, let's face it, the committee will do significant changes to the seed lines to fit travel plans)
1) Gonzaga (21-7) vs. 8) Boise St (16-10)
4) UCLA (15-13) vs. 5) South Dakota St (20-7)
3) BYU (21-8) vs. 6) UC-Irvine (19-8)
2) Oregon St (15-10) vs. 7) Fresno St (18-9)
1) Vanderbilt (17-11) vs. 8) Kent St (17-10)
4) Kansas St (15-13) vs. 5) Stanford (13-12)
3) Creighton (17-11) vs. 6) Houston (20-8)
2) Washington (16-12) vs. 7) Northwestern (17-11)
1) St Bonaventure (19-7) vs. 8) Georgetown (14-14)
4) Davidson (16-9) vs. 5) LSU (16-12)
3) Clemson (16-12) vs. 6) Ole Miss (18-10)
2) Ohio St (18-11) vs. 7) William & Mary (17-9)
1) Alabama (16-11) vs. 8) Evansville (22-7)
4) Princeton (17-5) vs. 5) Georgia Tech (16-12)
3) Georgia (14-12) vs. 6) UNC-Wilmington (19-7)
2) Florida St (16-12) vs. 7) Ohio (17-9)
And now, welcome to the last CIT/CBI/Vegas projections of the year. Always remember that these are loose projections as best, as we don't know who will turn down a bid to these tournaments. The purpose here is to show the types of teams in play for each tournament, not to make concrete predictions for any individual team.
The Vegas 16. Again, remember that Vegas begins their own postseason tournament this year. A 16 team bracket, every game at a neutral site in Vegas. This is very wild speculation about who will show up. Take these not with a grain of salt but an entire salt factory. My guess is we see upper and high majors take spots in these tournaments as a preference to the CBI where you pay to host. I think Vegas will get first pick of many of the best teams available, since the neutral site format along with the quick nature of the tournament (the entire thing will take place over about 5 days) will attract many teams who would otherwise pass on the CBI and CIT.
Therefore, I'm taking the best 16 teams not in the NIT and projecting them here:
Arizona St (14-14) vs. Pepperdine (16-11)
Grand Canyon (22-4) vs. Nevada (15-10)
Virginia Tech (15-13) vs. Penn St (15-13)
Rhode Island (15-13) vs. Iona (17-10)
Marquette (18-10) vs. Illinois St (17-12)
Buffalo (15-12) vs. Marshall (15-13)
James Madison (19-10) vs. Oakland (20-10)
Texas-Arlington (17-9) vs. Omaha (16-12)
Next, the CIT, which will house the next 32 best mid-major teams.
Northeastern (15-14) vs. Albany (22-7)
Columbia (17-8) vs. Siena (19-11)
NJIT (16-13) vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (13-14)
Towson (18-10) vs. Lehigh (13-14)
Middle Tennessee (16-9) vs. Tennessee St (17-9)
Ball St (17-10) vs. High Point (16-9)
Northern Illinois (14-10) vs. Green Bay (16-11)
Southern Illinois (21-9) vs. Wright St (16-12)
East Tennessee St (18-10) vs. UNC-Asheville (17-10)
Tennessee Tech (16-10) vs. South Carolina St (14-12)
Louisiana Tech (19-7) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (14-12)
Louisiana-Lafayette (13-11) vs. Jackson St (13-12)
Northern Iowa (17-12) vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (19-6)
Weber St (18-7) vs. North Dakota St (16-11)
Long Beach St (13-13) vs. Cal-St Bakersfield (16-8)
UC-Santa Barbara (13-12) vs. San Francisco (14-13)
And finally, the CBI:
Duquesne (14-13) vs. Vermont (17-12)
Old Dominion (16-12) vs. Fairfield (18-11)
Richmond (14-13) vs. Memphis (15-13)
North Carolina St (14-14) vs. Charleston (15-12)
New Mexico (16-12) vs. Sam Houston St (12-11)
Colorado St (13-13) vs. Denver (14-14)
Arkansas (14-14) vs. Morehead St (15-11)
Toledo (16-11) vs. Milwaukee (16-11)
Best available left out of postseason:
Fordham (13-12), Elon (13-15), Eastern Michigan (11-13), UNLV (14-13)
Utah St (11-13), Georgia St (12-12), Furman (15-13), Mercer (16-12)
Detroit (13-13), Boston (16-13), Murray St (13-13), Tennessee-Martin (16-12)
UTEP (16-12), New Hampshire (15-11), Army (17-11), Navy (17-12)
Eastern Washington (14-11), Coastal Carolina (14-11), Idaho (15-11), FGCU (13-13)
2/26 S-CURVE
The 1 line: Kansas (23-4), Oklahoma (21-5), Villanova (24-4), Xavier (25-3)
The 2 line: Virginia (21-6), Michigan St (22-5), Miami (22-5), North Carolina (23-5)
The 3 line: Oregon (21-6), West Virginia (21-7), Iowa (20-7), Maryland (22-5)
The 4 line: Duke (21-7), Kentucky (21-7), Iowa St (19-9), Utah (21-7)
The 5 line: Baylor (19-8), Indiana (23-6), Arizona (22-6), Purdue (21-7)
The 6 line: Notre Dame (19-8), Texas (18-10), California (20-8), Dayton (22-5)
The 7 line: Texas A&M (21-7), South Carolina (22-5), Colorado (19-9), Pittsburgh (18-8)
The 8 line: Seton Hall (20-7), USC (19-9), St Joseph's (23-5), Wisconsin (18-10)
The 9 line: Syracuse (18-10), Providence (19-9), Wichita St (21-7), Texas Tech (18-9)
The 10 line: Cincinnati (20-8), UConn (20-8), Monmouth (23-6), George Washington (21-7)
The 11 line: Valparaiso (22-5), Butler (18-9), Michigan (19-9), St Mary's (22-4), Florida (17-10), Tulsa (19-9)
The 12 line: VCU (20-8), Temple (17-10), San Diego St (19-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (23-3)
The 13 line: Chattanooga (22-5), Akron (20-7), Hofstra (20-8), IPFW (21-7)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-4), Yale (17-6), UAB (22-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (17-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-8)
The 16 line: Montana (15-8), North Florida (18-10), Bucknell (15-12), Wagner (18-9), Hampton (15-9), Texas Southern (14-12)
Next 4 in:
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
UConn
Monmouth***
George Washington
Last 4 in:
Valparaiso***
Butler
Michigan
St Mary's***
Florida
Tulsa
Last 4 out:
Gonzaga
St Bonaventure
Oregon St
VCU***
Vanderbilt
Next 4 out:
Temple***
Alabama
San Diego St***
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Florida St
Chattanooga***
Washington
BYU
The 2 line: Virginia (21-6), Michigan St (22-5), Miami (22-5), North Carolina (23-5)
The 3 line: Oregon (21-6), West Virginia (21-7), Iowa (20-7), Maryland (22-5)
The 4 line: Duke (21-7), Kentucky (21-7), Iowa St (19-9), Utah (21-7)
The 5 line: Baylor (19-8), Indiana (23-6), Arizona (22-6), Purdue (21-7)
The 6 line: Notre Dame (19-8), Texas (18-10), California (20-8), Dayton (22-5)
The 7 line: Texas A&M (21-7), South Carolina (22-5), Colorado (19-9), Pittsburgh (18-8)
The 8 line: Seton Hall (20-7), USC (19-9), St Joseph's (23-5), Wisconsin (18-10)
The 9 line: Syracuse (18-10), Providence (19-9), Wichita St (21-7), Texas Tech (18-9)
The 10 line: Cincinnati (20-8), UConn (20-8), Monmouth (23-6), George Washington (21-7)
The 11 line: Valparaiso (22-5), Butler (18-9), Michigan (19-9), St Mary's (22-4), Florida (17-10), Tulsa (19-9)
The 12 line: VCU (20-8), Temple (17-10), San Diego St (19-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (23-3)
The 13 line: Chattanooga (22-5), Akron (20-7), Hofstra (20-8), IPFW (21-7)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-4), Yale (17-6), UAB (22-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (17-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-8)
The 16 line: Montana (15-8), North Florida (18-10), Bucknell (15-12), Wagner (18-9), Hampton (15-9), Texas Southern (14-12)
Next 4 in:
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
UConn
Monmouth***
George Washington
Last 4 in:
Valparaiso***
Butler
Michigan
St Mary's***
Florida
Tulsa
Last 4 out:
Gonzaga
St Bonaventure
Oregon St
VCU***
Vanderbilt
Next 4 out:
Temple***
Alabama
San Diego St***
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Florida St
Chattanooga***
Washington
BYU
Thursday, February 25, 2016
2/25 Top Four lines
I won't do a full bracket everyday, but I will do a top 4 lines most days now. This is more relevant than usual because there are more daily changes than usual. Why is this?
Right now I have 4 B1G teams, 4 Big 12 teams, and 4 ACC teams in my top 16. According to the 4-in-4 rule, teams from the same conference in the top 4 lines must be separated. The top four teams in the three conferences mentioned above must be in four separate regionals.
Therefore, the chain reaction results in this: each regional must contain exactly one B1G team, one Big 12 team, one ACC team, and one team from another conference. This causes some nasty chain reactions, the biggest one being that Oregon is locked out of playing in the west regional because Xavier has the 1 seed in the west.
This results in imbalance, and a hysterical situation where Kentucky plays in Lousiville the second weekend. Why? Because they're forced there! There's actually nowhere else for them to go on the 4 line.
Today, this is where we stand:
SOUTH 34
1) Kansas (Des Moines)
2) Miami (Oklahoma City)
3) Maryland (Providence)
4) Kentucky (Denver)
WEST 36
1) Xavier (St Louis)
2) North Carolina (Raleigh)
3) Iowa (Des Moines)
4) Iowa St (Denver)
EAST 35
1) Villanova (Brooklyn)
2) Virginia (Raleigh)
3) West Virginia (Brooklyn)
4) Purdue (Spokane)
MIDWEST 31
1) Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)
2) Michigan St (St Louis)
3) Oregon (Spokane)
4) Duke (Providence)
Right now I have 4 B1G teams, 4 Big 12 teams, and 4 ACC teams in my top 16. According to the 4-in-4 rule, teams from the same conference in the top 4 lines must be separated. The top four teams in the three conferences mentioned above must be in four separate regionals.
Therefore, the chain reaction results in this: each regional must contain exactly one B1G team, one Big 12 team, one ACC team, and one team from another conference. This causes some nasty chain reactions, the biggest one being that Oregon is locked out of playing in the west regional because Xavier has the 1 seed in the west.
This results in imbalance, and a hysterical situation where Kentucky plays in Lousiville the second weekend. Why? Because they're forced there! There's actually nowhere else for them to go on the 4 line.
Today, this is where we stand:
SOUTH 34
1) Kansas (Des Moines)
2) Miami (Oklahoma City)
3) Maryland (Providence)
4) Kentucky (Denver)
WEST 36
1) Xavier (St Louis)
2) North Carolina (Raleigh)
3) Iowa (Des Moines)
4) Iowa St (Denver)
EAST 35
1) Villanova (Brooklyn)
2) Virginia (Raleigh)
3) West Virginia (Brooklyn)
4) Purdue (Spokane)
MIDWEST 31
1) Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)
2) Michigan St (St Louis)
3) Oregon (Spokane)
4) Duke (Providence)
2/25 S-CURVE
The 1 line: Kansas (23-4), Oklahoma (21-5), Villanova (24-4), Xavier (25-3)
The 2 line: Virginia (21-6), Michigan St (22-5), Miami (22-5), North Carolina (23-5)
The 3 line: Iowa (20-7), Oregon (21-6), West Virginia (21-7), Maryland (22-5)
The 4 line: Duke (20-7), Kentucky (21-7), Iowa St (19-9), Purdue (21-7)
The 5 line: Baylor (19-8), Indiana (22-6), Arizona (22-6), Utah (20-7)
The 6 line: Dayton (22-5), Texas A&M (21-7), Notre Dame (19-8), Texas (18-10)
The 7 line: USC (19-8), California (19-8), Colorado (19-9), South Carolina (22-5)
The 8 line: Pittsburgh (18-8), Providence (19-8), Seton Hall (19-7), St Joseph's (23-5)
The 9 line: Wisconsin (18-10), Syracuse (18-10), Wichita St (21-7), Cincinnati (20-8)
The 10 line: UConn (19-8), Monmouth (23-6), Texas Tech (18-9), Valparaiso (22-5)
The 11 line: George Washington (21-7), Butler (18-9), St Mary's (21-5), Michigan (19-9), Florida (17-10), Tulsa (19-9)
The 12 line: VCU (20-8), Temple (17-10), San Diego St (18-7), Chattanooga (22-5)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3), Akron (20-7), UNC-Wilmington (19-6), IPFW (20-7)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-3), Yale (17-6), UAB (21-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (16-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-7)
The 16 line: Montana (14-8), North Florida (17-10), Bucknell (15-12), Wagner (17-9), Hampton (15-9), Texas Southern (14-12)
Next 4 in:
Cincinnati
UConn
Monmouth***
Texas Tech
Valparaiso***
George Washington
Last 4 in:
Butler
St Mary's***
Michigan
Florida
Tulsa
Last 4 out:
Gonzaga (20-7)
St Bonaventure (19-7)
Oregon St (15-10)
VCU***
Vanderbilt (17-11)
Next 4 out:
Temple***
Alabama (16-11)
San Diego St***
UCLA (16-12)
Florida St (16-11)
Chattanooga***
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Washington (16-12)
The 2 line: Virginia (21-6), Michigan St (22-5), Miami (22-5), North Carolina (23-5)
The 3 line: Iowa (20-7), Oregon (21-6), West Virginia (21-7), Maryland (22-5)
The 4 line: Duke (20-7), Kentucky (21-7), Iowa St (19-9), Purdue (21-7)
The 5 line: Baylor (19-8), Indiana (22-6), Arizona (22-6), Utah (20-7)
The 6 line: Dayton (22-5), Texas A&M (21-7), Notre Dame (19-8), Texas (18-10)
The 7 line: USC (19-8), California (19-8), Colorado (19-9), South Carolina (22-5)
The 8 line: Pittsburgh (18-8), Providence (19-8), Seton Hall (19-7), St Joseph's (23-5)
The 9 line: Wisconsin (18-10), Syracuse (18-10), Wichita St (21-7), Cincinnati (20-8)
The 10 line: UConn (19-8), Monmouth (23-6), Texas Tech (18-9), Valparaiso (22-5)
The 11 line: George Washington (21-7), Butler (18-9), St Mary's (21-5), Michigan (19-9), Florida (17-10), Tulsa (19-9)
The 12 line: VCU (20-8), Temple (17-10), San Diego St (18-7), Chattanooga (22-5)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3), Akron (20-7), UNC-Wilmington (19-6), IPFW (20-7)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-3), Yale (17-6), UAB (21-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (16-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-7)
The 16 line: Montana (14-8), North Florida (17-10), Bucknell (15-12), Wagner (17-9), Hampton (15-9), Texas Southern (14-12)
Next 4 in:
Cincinnati
UConn
Monmouth***
Texas Tech
Valparaiso***
George Washington
Last 4 in:
Butler
St Mary's***
Michigan
Florida
Tulsa
Last 4 out:
Gonzaga (20-7)
St Bonaventure (19-7)
Oregon St (15-10)
VCU***
Vanderbilt (17-11)
Next 4 out:
Temple***
Alabama (16-11)
San Diego St***
UCLA (16-12)
Florida St (16-11)
Chattanooga***
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Washington (16-12)
2/25 recap
Service holds:
@Duke 80, Florida St 65
Indiana 74, @Illinois 47
@Utah 81, Arizona St 46
SMU 69, @Memphis 62
Das Bubble:
@Seton Hall 70, Providence 52 - Provi is in legitimate bubble trouble now
@UConn 81, South Florida 51
@Arkansas-Little Rock 72, Texas-Arlington 60
@California 75, UCLA 63
Gonzaga 72, @San Diego 60
@BYU 99, Portland 81
@St Mary's 75, Santa Clara 50
Catastrophic loss of the day:
@Stanford 84, USC 64 - USC now bleeding several seed lines in the past few weeks
UC-Riverside 77, @Hawaii 71 - I only mention this because a few of you were getting cute and listing Hawaii on your bubbles. Stop it
NITWatch!:
Hofstra 70, UNC-Wilmington 69 - the two are tied for the CAA lead with one to play...and whoever isn't the 1 seed will be in good shape for an at-large bid from the NIT
Penn St beats Nebraska, but both appear to be beyond the reaches of the NIT now...William & Mary won as well, and will be in contention for a NIT bid, but being 3rd in conference may shut them out...Middle Tennessee had an outside shot but lost at home to WKU...Towson over James Madison, but they're battling for 4th in the CAA pecking order and the NIT won't go that deep...South Dakota St and IPFW both won. Whoever doesn't win the conference has a fighting chance at a NIT at-large bid...
@Duke 80, Florida St 65
Indiana 74, @Illinois 47
@Utah 81, Arizona St 46
SMU 69, @Memphis 62
Das Bubble:
@Seton Hall 70, Providence 52 - Provi is in legitimate bubble trouble now
@UConn 81, South Florida 51
@Arkansas-Little Rock 72, Texas-Arlington 60
@California 75, UCLA 63
Gonzaga 72, @San Diego 60
@BYU 99, Portland 81
@St Mary's 75, Santa Clara 50
Catastrophic loss of the day:
@Stanford 84, USC 64 - USC now bleeding several seed lines in the past few weeks
UC-Riverside 77, @Hawaii 71 - I only mention this because a few of you were getting cute and listing Hawaii on your bubbles. Stop it
NITWatch!:
Hofstra 70, UNC-Wilmington 69 - the two are tied for the CAA lead with one to play...and whoever isn't the 1 seed will be in good shape for an at-large bid from the NIT
Penn St beats Nebraska, but both appear to be beyond the reaches of the NIT now...William & Mary won as well, and will be in contention for a NIT bid, but being 3rd in conference may shut them out...Middle Tennessee had an outside shot but lost at home to WKU...Towson over James Madison, but they're battling for 4th in the CAA pecking order and the NIT won't go that deep...South Dakota St and IPFW both won. Whoever doesn't win the conference has a fighting chance at a NIT at-large bid...
2/24 recap
The race for the 1 line:
@Xavier 90, Villanova 83 - the plot thickens. Will there be room for 4 teams from 2 conferences on the 1 line? The B1G is helping because Indiana leads there. However, I just have the feeling the ACC champion will make a legit run, and one of Xavier and Villanova will fall by the boards. This makes 'Nova holding on to their lead so important. For today, X is your final 1 seed
@Oklahoma 71, Oklahoma St 49 - the Xavier win also applies pressure here, because OU isn't likely to have a piece of the Big 12 crown at this point. The importance of the conference tournament can't be understated now
North Carolina 80, @NC State 68 - and the pressure rises on UNC, who doesn't have the same profile on paper as most other contenders
Wisconsin 67, @Iowa 59 - meanwhile, this is the end of Iowa's run at the 1 line for sure, they needed a double crown to have a chance. This also doubles as the signature win that has Wisconsin in great shape now. It's all about bad loss avoidance now
Lockbox activity:
@Colorado 75, Arizona 72 - Colorado was starting to get shaky, so a very important hold. Probably a home win over ASU away from the lockbox
Louisville 67, @Pittsburgh 60 - Pitt should still be fine, but a lost chance to improve the seed
@Oregon 76, Washington St 62
@Texas A&M 68, Mississippi St 66
Notre Dame 69, @Wake Forest 58
@South Carolina 84, Tennessee 58
Wichita St 76, @Loyola(Chi) 54
On the bubble:
@Michigan 72, Northwestern 63
George Washington 73, @Richmond 61 - road wins are never trivial
@St Bonaventure 80, Duquesne 76
St Joseph's 74, @UMass 57
@George Mason 76, VCU 69 - oh no, no no no. Ok a road loss, but not to the likes of Mason
San Diego St 73, @Wyoming 61 - only lost once in the Mountain West so far. That's really good, no matter the level of the conference. There's still a chance
@Oregon St 82, Washington 81 - probably endgame for Washington
Get off the bubble:
@Auburn 84, Georgia 81
Marquette 66, @Creighton 61 - the hopes were dim here anyways
NITWatch: Illinois St blows out Southern Illinois and the impending ISU/Evansville matchup in the MVC semis could be for a NIT spot...Northern Iowa won again but has too much ground to make up...Fresno and Nevada win in the MWC but still probably trail Boise...UC-Irvine blows out the Beach and are legitimate at-large contenders for the NIT
@Xavier 90, Villanova 83 - the plot thickens. Will there be room for 4 teams from 2 conferences on the 1 line? The B1G is helping because Indiana leads there. However, I just have the feeling the ACC champion will make a legit run, and one of Xavier and Villanova will fall by the boards. This makes 'Nova holding on to their lead so important. For today, X is your final 1 seed
@Oklahoma 71, Oklahoma St 49 - the Xavier win also applies pressure here, because OU isn't likely to have a piece of the Big 12 crown at this point. The importance of the conference tournament can't be understated now
North Carolina 80, @NC State 68 - and the pressure rises on UNC, who doesn't have the same profile on paper as most other contenders
Wisconsin 67, @Iowa 59 - meanwhile, this is the end of Iowa's run at the 1 line for sure, they needed a double crown to have a chance. This also doubles as the signature win that has Wisconsin in great shape now. It's all about bad loss avoidance now
Lockbox activity:
@Colorado 75, Arizona 72 - Colorado was starting to get shaky, so a very important hold. Probably a home win over ASU away from the lockbox
Louisville 67, @Pittsburgh 60 - Pitt should still be fine, but a lost chance to improve the seed
@Oregon 76, Washington St 62
@Texas A&M 68, Mississippi St 66
Notre Dame 69, @Wake Forest 58
@South Carolina 84, Tennessee 58
Wichita St 76, @Loyola(Chi) 54
On the bubble:
@Michigan 72, Northwestern 63
George Washington 73, @Richmond 61 - road wins are never trivial
@St Bonaventure 80, Duquesne 76
St Joseph's 74, @UMass 57
@George Mason 76, VCU 69 - oh no, no no no. Ok a road loss, but not to the likes of Mason
San Diego St 73, @Wyoming 61 - only lost once in the Mountain West so far. That's really good, no matter the level of the conference. There's still a chance
@Oregon St 82, Washington 81 - probably endgame for Washington
Get off the bubble:
@Auburn 84, Georgia 81
Marquette 66, @Creighton 61 - the hopes were dim here anyways
NITWatch: Illinois St blows out Southern Illinois and the impending ISU/Evansville matchup in the MVC semis could be for a NIT spot...Northern Iowa won again but has too much ground to make up...Fresno and Nevada win in the MWC but still probably trail Boise...UC-Irvine blows out the Beach and are legitimate at-large contenders for the NIT
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
2/24 S-CURVE
Currently projected as AQs: VCU (A-10), Temple (AAC), St Mary's (WCC)
The 1 line: Kansas (23-4), Oklahoma (21-5), Villanova (24-3), Xavier (24-3)
The 2 line: Virginia (21-6), Iowa (20-6), Michigan St (22-5), Miami (22-5)
The 3 line: North Carolina (22-5), Oregon (20-6), West Virginia (21-7), Maryland (22-5)
The 4 line: Duke (20-7), Kentucky (21-7), Iowa St (19-9), Purdue (21-7)
The 5 line: Arizona (22-5), Baylor (19-8), Indiana (22-6), Utah (20-7)
The 6 line: Dayton (22-5), Texas A&M (20-7), Notre Dame (18-8), Texas (18-10)
The 7 line: USC (19-8), California (19-8), COlorado (18-9), Pittsburgh (18-7)
The 8 line: South Carolina (21-5), Providence (19-8), Seton Hall (19-7), St Joseph's (22-5)
The 9 line: Syracuse (18-10), Wichita St (20-7), Cincinnati (20-8), UConn (19-8)
The 10 line: Monmouth (23-6), Texas Tech (18-9), Wisconsin (17-10), Valparaiso (22-5)
The 11 line: George Washington (20-7), Butler (18-9), VCU (20-7), St Mary's (21-5), Michigan (18-9)
The 12 line: Florida (17-10), Tulsa (19-9), Temple (17-10), San Diego St (18-7), Chattanooga (22-5)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3), Akron (20-7), UNC-Wilmington (19-6), IPFW (20-7)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-3), Yale (17-6), UAB (21-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (16-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-7)
The 16 line: Montana (14-8), North Florida (17-10), Bucknell (14-12), Wagner (17-9), Hampton (15-9), Texas Southern (14-12)
Next 4 in:
UConn
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
George Washington
Last 4 in:
Butler
Michigan
Florida
Tulsa
Last 4 out:
Gonzaga (20-7)
St Bonaventure (18-7)
Vanderbilt (17-11)
Oregon St (14-10)
Next 4 out:
Alabama (16-11)
Washington (16-11)
UCLA (16-12)
Florida St (16-11)
Conference leaders with legitimate at-large chances (outside the Big 6): Wichita St, Monmouth, Valparaiso, VCU, St Mary's, Temple
Conference leaders who seem to have run out of time/room: San Diego St, Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock, Akron
Those still with viable at-large paths in my view: UCLA, Creighton, Ohio St, Georgia
Those who have "lost the draft" of the bubble, probably for good: Kansas St, Georgetown, Stanford, Clemson, Georgia Tech, LSU, Davidson, BYU
The 1 line: Kansas (23-4), Oklahoma (21-5), Villanova (24-3), Xavier (24-3)
The 2 line: Virginia (21-6), Iowa (20-6), Michigan St (22-5), Miami (22-5)
The 3 line: North Carolina (22-5), Oregon (20-6), West Virginia (21-7), Maryland (22-5)
The 4 line: Duke (20-7), Kentucky (21-7), Iowa St (19-9), Purdue (21-7)
The 5 line: Arizona (22-5), Baylor (19-8), Indiana (22-6), Utah (20-7)
The 6 line: Dayton (22-5), Texas A&M (20-7), Notre Dame (18-8), Texas (18-10)
The 7 line: USC (19-8), California (19-8), COlorado (18-9), Pittsburgh (18-7)
The 8 line: South Carolina (21-5), Providence (19-8), Seton Hall (19-7), St Joseph's (22-5)
The 9 line: Syracuse (18-10), Wichita St (20-7), Cincinnati (20-8), UConn (19-8)
The 10 line: Monmouth (23-6), Texas Tech (18-9), Wisconsin (17-10), Valparaiso (22-5)
The 11 line: George Washington (20-7), Butler (18-9), VCU (20-7), St Mary's (21-5), Michigan (18-9)
The 12 line: Florida (17-10), Tulsa (19-9), Temple (17-10), San Diego St (18-7), Chattanooga (22-5)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3), Akron (20-7), UNC-Wilmington (19-6), IPFW (20-7)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-3), Yale (17-6), UAB (21-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (16-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-7)
The 16 line: Montana (14-8), North Florida (17-10), Bucknell (14-12), Wagner (17-9), Hampton (15-9), Texas Southern (14-12)
Next 4 in:
UConn
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
George Washington
Last 4 in:
Butler
Michigan
Florida
Tulsa
Last 4 out:
Gonzaga (20-7)
St Bonaventure (18-7)
Vanderbilt (17-11)
Oregon St (14-10)
Next 4 out:
Alabama (16-11)
Washington (16-11)
UCLA (16-12)
Florida St (16-11)
Conference leaders with legitimate at-large chances (outside the Big 6): Wichita St, Monmouth, Valparaiso, VCU, St Mary's, Temple
Conference leaders who seem to have run out of time/room: San Diego St, Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock, Akron
Those still with viable at-large paths in my view: UCLA, Creighton, Ohio St, Georgia
Those who have "lost the draft" of the bubble, probably for good: Kansas St, Georgetown, Stanford, Clemson, Georgia Tech, LSU, Davidson, BYU
2/23 recap
Kansas 66, @Baylor 60 - Kansas consolidating its position on the 1 line
Michigan St 81, @Ohio St 62 - well, okay maybe OSU is dead in fact
@Kentucky 78, Alabama 53
Vanderbilt 87, @Florida 74 - well, this makes things more confusing in the SEC
@Tulsa 74, Temple 55 - I'm not exactly sure what order these AAC teams should be in
Dayton 52, @St Louis 49 (OT) - yeesh
@Texas Tech 83, TCU 79
Catastrophic losses of the day:
@Arkansas 85, LSU 65 - no words
@Georgia Tech 75, Clemson 73 - no words, again
NITWatch:
Davidson beats URI at home and is probably a lock here...Akron lost. Kent St with a chance to tie them for the lead...and they lose at Buffalo. Akron leads almost half the damn conference by 1 game with 3 to play...Ole Miss wins at home over Mizzou, but their NIT hopes might rely on how many SEC teams make the NCAAs...VaTech won again and RPI be damned, I think they'll get in...Evansville won...Boise St won, and with New Mexico losing, reclaim the #2 spot in the Mountain West pecking order
Michigan St 81, @Ohio St 62 - well, okay maybe OSU is dead in fact
@Kentucky 78, Alabama 53
Vanderbilt 87, @Florida 74 - well, this makes things more confusing in the SEC
@Tulsa 74, Temple 55 - I'm not exactly sure what order these AAC teams should be in
Dayton 52, @St Louis 49 (OT) - yeesh
@Texas Tech 83, TCU 79
Catastrophic losses of the day:
@Arkansas 85, LSU 65 - no words
@Georgia Tech 75, Clemson 73 - no words, again
NITWatch:
Davidson beats URI at home and is probably a lock here...Akron lost. Kent St with a chance to tie them for the lead...and they lose at Buffalo. Akron leads almost half the damn conference by 1 game with 3 to play...Ole Miss wins at home over Mizzou, but their NIT hopes might rely on how many SEC teams make the NCAAs...VaTech won again and RPI be damned, I think they'll get in...Evansville won...Boise St won, and with New Mexico losing, reclaim the #2 spot in the Mountain West pecking order
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Bubble Watch: special mid-major edition
Let's look at the mid-major candidates on the bubble. I've got 15 teams that, in my view, warrant a look. For the purposes of this discussion, the following conferences do not count: The Big 6, AAC and A-10, MWC, WCC, and MVC.
Let's compare them to each other. Why to each other? Because not everyone's making it as an at-large, so we need to decide which ones have the best chance.
Akron (20-6) (10-4) RPI 39 SoS 137 avg win 183
Vital signs: 9-6 R/N, non-con SoS 237, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 2-2 vs. Top 100
Princeton (17-5) (8-1) RPI 41 SoS 135 avg win 234
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 100, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 1-5 vs. Top 100
Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3) (14-2) RPI 42 SoS 219 avg win 207
Vital signs: 13-3 R/N, non-con SoS 244, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 2-1 vs. Top 100
Monmouth (23-6) (15-3) RPI 46 SoS 154 avg win 194
Vital signs: 15-5 R/N, non-con SoS 56, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100
South Dakota St (19-7) (10-4) RPI 47 SoS 143 avg win 177
Vital signs: 11-7 R/N, non-con SoS 151, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100
Stony Brook (21-5) (14-1) RPI 51 SoS 199 avg win 225
Vital signs: 11-5 R/N, non-con SoS 60, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 3-3 vs. Top 100
Yale (17-6) (9-1) RPI 54 SoS 155 avg win 235
Vital signs: 8-6 R/N, non-con SoS 152, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 1-5 vs. Top 100
Valparaiso (22-5) (14-2) RPI 58 SoS 187 avg win 201
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 44, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100
UNC-Wilmington (19-6) (13-3) RPI 61 SoS 161 avg win 177
Vital signs: 10-5 R/N, non-con SoS 295, 0-0 vs. Top 50, 4-2 vs. Top 100
Chattanooga (22-5) (13-3) RPI 62 SoS 198 avg win 197
Vital signs: 12-4 R/N, non-con SoS 165, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 2-1 vs. Top 100
IPFW (20-7) (11-3) RPI 64 SoS 148 avg win 201
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 258, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 1-4 vs. Top 100
Hofstra (19-8) (12-4) RPI 67 SoS 124 avg win 178
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 157, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100
UC-Irvine (18-8) (9-3) RPI 73 SoS 130 avg win 218
Vital signs: 11-6 R/N, non-con SoS 72, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 2-8 vs. Top 100
Hawaii (20-3) (11-1) RPI 76 SoS 231 avg win 215
Vital signs: 6-1 R/N, non-con SoS 268, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
William & Mary (16-9) (10-6) RPI 77 SoS 97 avg win 164
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 58, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
So what metrics matter the most for mid-majors?
1) non-con SoS: The committee wants to see mid-majors control their own destiny and schedule up to impress the committee. Among those who helped themselves:
- Monmouth, Valparaiso, William & Mary, Stony Brook
Those who practically disqualify themselves, or come close:
- UNC-Wilmington, Hawaii, IPFW, Akron, Arkansas-Little Rock
2) road/neutral record: The committee wants to see road dominance. Good is not good enough, you have to be great in this metric. The studs:
- Monmouth, Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock, Valparaiso, Hawaii, Stony Brook
Those who are in trouble:
- William & Mary, Yale, Akron, Princeton
3) road games: Just going on the road a bunch in itself is a key metric. Those who loaded up:
- Monmouth, South Dakota St, UC-Irvine, IPFW, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, UALR
Those who are in trouble:
- Hawaii, William & Mary, Princeton
4) top 100 wins: Gotta have some wins. Quantity matters; these teams don't have many chances:
- Monmouth, UNC-Wilmington, Hofstra, Hawaii (although Monmouth dwarfs everyone here)
Those in trouble:
- IPFW, Yale, Princeton
5) signature win: Who has wins over probable tournament teams?
- Monmouth, Chattanooga
Those with maybes:
- Hofstra (St Bonaventure), Valparaiso (Oregon St), UALR (Tulsa and SDSU)
So what can we learn from the numbers? How many of these 15 teams are in play?
1) The two Ivy teams (Princeton, Yale): how did they get the computer numbers they have? They're not viable
2) The MAC had a really strong year. If Akron had scheduled up, they'd have a legitimate chance. Instead, they wasted this year. They're out.
3) The CAA had a really strong year. However, the one team without at-large credentials in UNC-Wilimington rose to the top, stopping Hofstra from really having a fighting chance. W&M have a couple bad negative as well. It's a shame JMU and Northeastern couldn't help out. The CAA has 3 teams, all not in play.
4) The Summit had a strong year, but IPFW never planned accordingly. South Dakota St kind of did, but not winning the conference will be a big issue. They're both out.
5) Hawaii is in an interesting position - they virtually never went on the road in the non-con. Now, there's a practical reason for that. But for the committee, such considerations don't matter. They're out for refusing to go on the road. Irvine is automatically out because of the same reason as South Dakota St.
We have 5 teams left: Monmouth, Chattanooga, UALR, Valparaiso, Stony Brook.
- No one doubts Monmouth's place here.
- Chattanooga doesn't really have a black mark, and has a signature win and solid road/neutral marks. The SoS is merely middling, though. Why is it middling? They played the Emerald Coast Classic, which gave them shots at Illinois (success) and Iowa St (failure). But they also absorbed games against Alabama St and Jax St that killed the SoS. They'd have been better off skipping that tourney and taking a buy game against an Illinois-like team. Such is life as a mid-major - they schedule up to give themselves chances, then it turns out that the chances they took were unnecessary and it ends up hurting them. I can definitely see the committee look at this and put them in on the back end, but I'm not betting on it.
- UALR did good winning at Tulsa and SDSU. The problem is schedule depth. Even the road games (Idaho, Central Arkansas, etc) end up hurting them. They only played 2 home games against D-1 teams, yet managed to be 244 in the non-con SoS. That's tough to do. I think they lose the head-to-head battle with Chattanooga because of this.
- Valpo's SoS is better than UALR or Chattanooga. Their signature win (@Oregon St) trails both Chattanooga and UALR, I think. They also trail in the road/neutral metric. Does the SoS considerations erase the margin between the teams? I think so. The difference is Valpo scheduled IPFW, Iona, Belmont x2, and @URI, helping themselves. They were much better in scheduling a depth to their schedule, much better than Chattanooga or UALR
- Stony Brook. I couldn't disqualify them on any metric. However, their top 50 win is Princeton, and the other Top 100 wins are Albany and Hofstra. So their metrics have a bit of fool's gold in them. They're clearly 5th here. They deserve to be ahead of some of these other teams, but the committee traditionally likes to seed these teams based on conference RPI, and the A-East is going to bury the Brook.
Conclusion:
- Monmouth is a legit bunch.
- Valparaiso/Chattanooga/UALR is a tightly knotted group right on the bubble
- Stony Brook is a step behind and therefore out
- everyone else has a fatal flaw
Let's compare them to each other. Why to each other? Because not everyone's making it as an at-large, so we need to decide which ones have the best chance.
Akron (20-6) (10-4) RPI 39 SoS 137 avg win 183
Vital signs: 9-6 R/N, non-con SoS 237, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 2-2 vs. Top 100
Princeton (17-5) (8-1) RPI 41 SoS 135 avg win 234
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 100, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 1-5 vs. Top 100
Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3) (14-2) RPI 42 SoS 219 avg win 207
Vital signs: 13-3 R/N, non-con SoS 244, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 2-1 vs. Top 100
Monmouth (23-6) (15-3) RPI 46 SoS 154 avg win 194
Vital signs: 15-5 R/N, non-con SoS 56, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100
South Dakota St (19-7) (10-4) RPI 47 SoS 143 avg win 177
Vital signs: 11-7 R/N, non-con SoS 151, 0-1 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100
Stony Brook (21-5) (14-1) RPI 51 SoS 199 avg win 225
Vital signs: 11-5 R/N, non-con SoS 60, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 3-3 vs. Top 100
Yale (17-6) (9-1) RPI 54 SoS 155 avg win 235
Vital signs: 8-6 R/N, non-con SoS 152, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 1-5 vs. Top 100
Valparaiso (22-5) (14-2) RPI 58 SoS 187 avg win 201
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 44, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100
UNC-Wilmington (19-6) (13-3) RPI 61 SoS 161 avg win 177
Vital signs: 10-5 R/N, non-con SoS 295, 0-0 vs. Top 50, 4-2 vs. Top 100
Chattanooga (22-5) (13-3) RPI 62 SoS 198 avg win 197
Vital signs: 12-4 R/N, non-con SoS 165, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 2-1 vs. Top 100
IPFW (20-7) (11-3) RPI 64 SoS 148 avg win 201
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 258, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 1-4 vs. Top 100
Hofstra (19-8) (12-4) RPI 67 SoS 124 avg win 178
Vital signs: 10-6 R/N, non-con SoS 157, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100
UC-Irvine (18-8) (9-3) RPI 73 SoS 130 avg win 218
Vital signs: 11-6 R/N, non-con SoS 72, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 2-8 vs. Top 100
Hawaii (20-3) (11-1) RPI 76 SoS 231 avg win 215
Vital signs: 6-1 R/N, non-con SoS 268, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
William & Mary (16-9) (10-6) RPI 77 SoS 97 avg win 164
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 58, 0-2 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
So what metrics matter the most for mid-majors?
1) non-con SoS: The committee wants to see mid-majors control their own destiny and schedule up to impress the committee. Among those who helped themselves:
- Monmouth, Valparaiso, William & Mary, Stony Brook
Those who practically disqualify themselves, or come close:
- UNC-Wilmington, Hawaii, IPFW, Akron, Arkansas-Little Rock
2) road/neutral record: The committee wants to see road dominance. Good is not good enough, you have to be great in this metric. The studs:
- Monmouth, Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock, Valparaiso, Hawaii, Stony Brook
Those who are in trouble:
- William & Mary, Yale, Akron, Princeton
3) road games: Just going on the road a bunch in itself is a key metric. Those who loaded up:
- Monmouth, South Dakota St, UC-Irvine, IPFW, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, UALR
Those who are in trouble:
- Hawaii, William & Mary, Princeton
4) top 100 wins: Gotta have some wins. Quantity matters; these teams don't have many chances:
- Monmouth, UNC-Wilmington, Hofstra, Hawaii (although Monmouth dwarfs everyone here)
Those in trouble:
- IPFW, Yale, Princeton
5) signature win: Who has wins over probable tournament teams?
- Monmouth, Chattanooga
Those with maybes:
- Hofstra (St Bonaventure), Valparaiso (Oregon St), UALR (Tulsa and SDSU)
So what can we learn from the numbers? How many of these 15 teams are in play?
1) The two Ivy teams (Princeton, Yale): how did they get the computer numbers they have? They're not viable
2) The MAC had a really strong year. If Akron had scheduled up, they'd have a legitimate chance. Instead, they wasted this year. They're out.
3) The CAA had a really strong year. However, the one team without at-large credentials in UNC-Wilimington rose to the top, stopping Hofstra from really having a fighting chance. W&M have a couple bad negative as well. It's a shame JMU and Northeastern couldn't help out. The CAA has 3 teams, all not in play.
4) The Summit had a strong year, but IPFW never planned accordingly. South Dakota St kind of did, but not winning the conference will be a big issue. They're both out.
5) Hawaii is in an interesting position - they virtually never went on the road in the non-con. Now, there's a practical reason for that. But for the committee, such considerations don't matter. They're out for refusing to go on the road. Irvine is automatically out because of the same reason as South Dakota St.
We have 5 teams left: Monmouth, Chattanooga, UALR, Valparaiso, Stony Brook.
- No one doubts Monmouth's place here.
- Chattanooga doesn't really have a black mark, and has a signature win and solid road/neutral marks. The SoS is merely middling, though. Why is it middling? They played the Emerald Coast Classic, which gave them shots at Illinois (success) and Iowa St (failure). But they also absorbed games against Alabama St and Jax St that killed the SoS. They'd have been better off skipping that tourney and taking a buy game against an Illinois-like team. Such is life as a mid-major - they schedule up to give themselves chances, then it turns out that the chances they took were unnecessary and it ends up hurting them. I can definitely see the committee look at this and put them in on the back end, but I'm not betting on it.
- UALR did good winning at Tulsa and SDSU. The problem is schedule depth. Even the road games (Idaho, Central Arkansas, etc) end up hurting them. They only played 2 home games against D-1 teams, yet managed to be 244 in the non-con SoS. That's tough to do. I think they lose the head-to-head battle with Chattanooga because of this.
- Valpo's SoS is better than UALR or Chattanooga. Their signature win (@Oregon St) trails both Chattanooga and UALR, I think. They also trail in the road/neutral metric. Does the SoS considerations erase the margin between the teams? I think so. The difference is Valpo scheduled IPFW, Iona, Belmont x2, and @URI, helping themselves. They were much better in scheduling a depth to their schedule, much better than Chattanooga or UALR
- Stony Brook. I couldn't disqualify them on any metric. However, their top 50 win is Princeton, and the other Top 100 wins are Albany and Hofstra. So their metrics have a bit of fool's gold in them. They're clearly 5th here. They deserve to be ahead of some of these other teams, but the committee traditionally likes to seed these teams based on conference RPI, and the A-East is going to bury the Brook.
Conclusion:
- Monmouth is a legit bunch.
- Valparaiso/Chattanooga/UALR is a tightly knotted group right on the bubble
- Stony Brook is a step behind and therefore out
- everyone else has a fatal flaw
2/22 recap
@Miami 64, Virginia 61 - at this point, I'm not sure any team wants to the be the 4th 1 seed and get shipped out west. That spot goes back to Xavier for now
@West Virginia 97, Iowa St 87 - seeding ISU is going to be impossible, just impossible
Texas 71, @Kansas St 70
NITWatch: Iona beats Siena, has a near lock on 2nd in the MAAC, which probably locks the MAAC out of a NIT bid
@West Virginia 97, Iowa St 87 - seeding ISU is going to be impossible, just impossible
Texas 71, @Kansas St 70
NITWatch: Iona beats Siena, has a near lock on 2nd in the MAAC, which probably locks the MAAC out of a NIT bid
Monday, February 22, 2016
Historic performance
This is highly self-serving, but I wanted all this info in one place and I need to import it somewhere. Bear with me for a post.
2015:
67 of 68 teams correct
35 seeded correctly
64 seeded within 1 line
T-35 of 136 on the Bracket Matrix
2014:
67 of 68 teams correct
34 seeded correctly (not a good number)
60 seeded within 1 line
T-73 of 121 on the Bracket Matrix
These years were pre-blog and therefore pre-Bracket Matrix:
2013: (this was the year people struggled with seed lines and the year Oregon was a 12 when they should've been about a 6)
67 of 68 teams correct
39 seeded correctly
58 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-11 of 121 on the Bracket Matrix
2012:
67 of 68 teams correct (this is the year the committee took NC State over Miami on the bubble. I still maintain the committee was wrong, dead wrong in what they did and I refuse to accept this 67 of 68. Also of note: I called Iona in and Drexel out when almost no one saw it)
38 seeded correctly
64 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-8 of 115 on the Bracket Matrix (don't worry about these great performances, it evens out...)
2011:
64 of 68 teams correct (oh no)
33 seeded correctly
51 seeded within 1 line (ahahahahahahahaha)
hypothetical T-54 of 89 on the Bracket Matrix (how did this beat 30 people?????)
2010: (field shrinks to 65 from this year on back)
64 of 65 teams correct
27 seeded correctly
51 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-63 out of 83 on the Bracket Matrix (seeding was brutal this year)
2009:
63 of 65 teams correct
29 seeded correctly
49 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-47 out of 61 on the Bracket Matrix
...and message board archives only go so far back. :(
2015:
67 of 68 teams correct
35 seeded correctly
64 seeded within 1 line
T-35 of 136 on the Bracket Matrix
2014:
67 of 68 teams correct
34 seeded correctly (not a good number)
60 seeded within 1 line
T-73 of 121 on the Bracket Matrix
These years were pre-blog and therefore pre-Bracket Matrix:
2013: (this was the year people struggled with seed lines and the year Oregon was a 12 when they should've been about a 6)
67 of 68 teams correct
39 seeded correctly
58 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-11 of 121 on the Bracket Matrix
2012:
67 of 68 teams correct (this is the year the committee took NC State over Miami on the bubble. I still maintain the committee was wrong, dead wrong in what they did and I refuse to accept this 67 of 68. Also of note: I called Iona in and Drexel out when almost no one saw it)
38 seeded correctly
64 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-8 of 115 on the Bracket Matrix (don't worry about these great performances, it evens out...)
2011:
64 of 68 teams correct (oh no)
33 seeded correctly
51 seeded within 1 line (ahahahahahahahaha)
hypothetical T-54 of 89 on the Bracket Matrix (how did this beat 30 people?????)
2010: (field shrinks to 65 from this year on back)
64 of 65 teams correct
27 seeded correctly
51 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-63 out of 83 on the Bracket Matrix (seeding was brutal this year)
2009:
63 of 65 teams correct
29 seeded correctly
49 seeded within 1 line
hypothetical T-47 out of 61 on the Bracket Matrix
...and message board archives only go so far back. :(
2/22 BRACKET
MIDWEST 30
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (22-4) vs. 16) Montana (14-8)
8) Seton Hall (19-7) vs. 9) Cincinnati (20-8)
@Providence
4) Duke (20-7) vs. 13) Akron (20-6)
5) Indiana (22-6) vs. 12) George Washington (20-7)/Butler (18-9)
@Brooklyn
3) Maryland (22-5) vs. 14) Stony Brook (21-5)
6) Dayton (21-5) vs. 11) Valparaiso (22-5)
@St Louis
2) Xavier (24-3) vs. 15) Winthrop (17-7)
7) California (19-8) vs. 10) Wisconsin (17-10)
WEST 34
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (21-5) vs. 16) Bucknell (14-12)/Wagner (17-9)
8) South Carolina (21-5) vs. 9) UConn (19-7)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (19-8) vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington (19-6)
5) Arizona (22-5) vs. 12) San Diego St (18-7)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (20-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (20-3)
6) Texas (17-10) vs. 11) VCU (20-7)
@St Louis
2) Michigan St (22-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (16-5)
7) USC (19-8) vs. 10) Temple (17-9)
EAST 39
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (24-3) vs. 16) North Florida (17-10)
8) St Joseph's (22-5) vs. 9) Syracuse (18-10)
@Spokane
4) Purdue (21-7) vs. 13) IPFW (20-7)
5) Baylor (19-7) vs. 12) St Mary's (21-5)
@Providence
3) West Virginia (20-7) vs. 14) Yale (17-6)
6) Notre Dame (18-8) vs. 11) Florida (17-10)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (22-5) vs. 15) Belmont (19-9)
7) Colorado (18-9) vs. 10) Monmouth (22-6)
SOUTH 33
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (21-5) vs. 16) Hampton (14-9)/Texas Southern (13-12)
8) Providence (19-8) vs. 9) Wichita St (20-7)
@Denver
4) Kentucky (20-7) vs. 13) Chattanooga (22-5)
5) Utah (20-7) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (21-5) vs. 14) UAB (21-5)
6) Texas A&M (20-7) vs. 11) Michigan (18-9)/Gonzaga (20-7)
@Des Moines
2) Iowa (20-6) vs. 15) New Mexico St (18-9)
7) Pittsburgh (18-7) vs. 10) Texas Tech (17-9)
NIT
1) St Bonaventure vs. 8) James Madison
4) Ohio St vs. 5) Georgia Tech
3) Florida St vs. 6) Princeton
2) Vanderbilt vs. 7) Evansville
1) Alabama vs. 8) Ohio
4) Davidson vs. 5) Hofstra
3) Georgia vs. 6) Georgetown
2) Clemson vs. 7) William & Mary
1) Tulsa vs. 8) New Mexico
4) Kansas St vs. 5) Stanford
3) Creighton vs. 6) Ole Miss
2) Washington vs. 7) Houston
1) Oregon St vs. 8) Boise St
4) LSU vs. 5) South Dakota St
3) BYU vs. 6) UC-Irvine
2) UCLA vs. 7) Fresno St
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (22-4) vs. 16) Montana (14-8)
8) Seton Hall (19-7) vs. 9) Cincinnati (20-8)
@Providence
4) Duke (20-7) vs. 13) Akron (20-6)
5) Indiana (22-6) vs. 12) George Washington (20-7)/Butler (18-9)
@Brooklyn
3) Maryland (22-5) vs. 14) Stony Brook (21-5)
6) Dayton (21-5) vs. 11) Valparaiso (22-5)
@St Louis
2) Xavier (24-3) vs. 15) Winthrop (17-7)
7) California (19-8) vs. 10) Wisconsin (17-10)
WEST 34
@Raleigh
1) Virginia (21-5) vs. 16) Bucknell (14-12)/Wagner (17-9)
8) South Carolina (21-5) vs. 9) UConn (19-7)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (19-8) vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington (19-6)
5) Arizona (22-5) vs. 12) San Diego St (18-7)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (20-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (20-3)
6) Texas (17-10) vs. 11) VCU (20-7)
@St Louis
2) Michigan St (22-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (16-5)
7) USC (19-8) vs. 10) Temple (17-9)
EAST 39
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (24-3) vs. 16) North Florida (17-10)
8) St Joseph's (22-5) vs. 9) Syracuse (18-10)
@Spokane
4) Purdue (21-7) vs. 13) IPFW (20-7)
5) Baylor (19-7) vs. 12) St Mary's (21-5)
@Providence
3) West Virginia (20-7) vs. 14) Yale (17-6)
6) Notre Dame (18-8) vs. 11) Florida (17-10)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (22-5) vs. 15) Belmont (19-9)
7) Colorado (18-9) vs. 10) Monmouth (22-6)
SOUTH 33
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (21-5) vs. 16) Hampton (14-9)/Texas Southern (13-12)
8) Providence (19-8) vs. 9) Wichita St (20-7)
@Denver
4) Kentucky (20-7) vs. 13) Chattanooga (22-5)
5) Utah (20-7) vs. 12) Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (21-5) vs. 14) UAB (21-5)
6) Texas A&M (20-7) vs. 11) Michigan (18-9)/Gonzaga (20-7)
@Des Moines
2) Iowa (20-6) vs. 15) New Mexico St (18-9)
7) Pittsburgh (18-7) vs. 10) Texas Tech (17-9)
NIT
1) St Bonaventure vs. 8) James Madison
4) Ohio St vs. 5) Georgia Tech
3) Florida St vs. 6) Princeton
2) Vanderbilt vs. 7) Evansville
1) Alabama vs. 8) Ohio
4) Davidson vs. 5) Hofstra
3) Georgia vs. 6) Georgetown
2) Clemson vs. 7) William & Mary
1) Tulsa vs. 8) New Mexico
4) Kansas St vs. 5) Stanford
3) Creighton vs. 6) Ole Miss
2) Washington vs. 7) Houston
1) Oregon St vs. 8) Boise St
4) LSU vs. 5) South Dakota St
3) BYU vs. 6) UC-Irvine
2) UCLA vs. 7) Fresno St
2/22 S-CURVE
AQ shenanigans:
WCC: St Mary's is in at the AQ
AAC: Temple still in as the AQ
A-10: VCU is now in as the AQ
The 1 line: Kansas (22-4), Oklahoma (21-5), Villanova (24-3), Virginia (21-5)
The 2 line: Xavier (24-3), Iowa (20-6), Michigan St (22-5), North Carolina (22-5)
The 3 line: Oregon (20-6), Miami (21-5), Maryland (22-5), West Virginia (20-7)
The 4 line: Duke (20-7), Iowa St (19-8), Kentucky (20-7), Purdue (21-7)
The 5 line: Arizona (22-5), Baylor (19-7), Indiana (22-6), Utah (20-7)
The 6 line: Dayton (21-5), Texas A&M (20-7), Notre Dame (18-8), Texas (17-10)
The 7 line: USC (19-8), California (19-8), Colorado (18-9), Pittsburgh (18-7)
The 8 line: South Carolina (21-5), Providence (19-8), Seton Hall (19-7), St Joseph's (22-5)
The 9 line: Syracuse (18-10), Wichita St (20-7), Cincinnati (20-8), UConn (19-7)
The 10 line: Monmouth (22-6), Texas Tech (17-9), Wisconsin (17-10), Temple (17-9)
The 11 line: Florida (17-10), Valparaiso (22-5), George Washington (20-7), Butler (18-9)
The 12 line: VCU (20-7), St Mary's (21-5), Michigan (18-9), Gonzaga (20-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3), San Diego St (18-7)
The 13 line: Akron (20-6), Chattanooga (22-5), UNC-Wilmington (19-6), IPFW (20-7)
The 14 line: Yale (17-6), Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-3), UAB (21-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (16-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-7)
The 16 line: Montana (14-8), North Florida (17-10), Bucknell (14-12), Wagner (17-9), Hampton (14-9), Texas Southern (13-12)
Next 4 in:
UConn
Monmouth***
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
Temple***
Florida
Last 4 in:
Valparaiso***
George Washington
Butler
VCU***
St Mary's***
Gonzaga
Last 4 out:
St Bonaventure (18-7)
Tulsa (18-9)
Oregon St (14-10)
Alabama (16-10)
Next 4 out:
Arkansas-Little Rock***
San Diego St***
Washington (16-11)
Vanderbilt (16-11)
Akron***
Clemson (16-11)
Chattanooga***
UCLA (16-12)
NIT
The 1 line: St Bonaventure (18-7), Tulsa (18-9), Oregon St (14-10), Alabama (16-10)
The 2 line: Washington (16-11), Vanderbilt (16-11), Clemson (16-11), UCLA (16-12)
The 3 line: Florida St (16-11), Ohio St (18-10), Georgia (14-11), Creighton (17-10)
The 4 line: LSU (16-11), BYU (20-8), Davidson (15-9), Kansas St (15-12)
The 5 line: Princeton (17-5), South Dakota St (19-7), Hofstra (19-8), Ole Miss (17-10)
The 6 line: Stanford (12-12), Georgia Tech (16-12), UC-Irvine (18-8), Fresno St (16-9)
The 7 line: Georgetown (14-14), Evansville (21-7), Houston (19-8), Ohio (17-8)
The 8 line: Boise St (15-10), William & Mary (16-9), James Madison (19-9), New Mexico (16-11)
Last 4 out:
Arizona St (14-13), Southern Illinois (21-8), Kent St (17-9), Rhode Island (16-12)
WCC: St Mary's is in at the AQ
AAC: Temple still in as the AQ
A-10: VCU is now in as the AQ
The 1 line: Kansas (22-4), Oklahoma (21-5), Villanova (24-3), Virginia (21-5)
The 2 line: Xavier (24-3), Iowa (20-6), Michigan St (22-5), North Carolina (22-5)
The 3 line: Oregon (20-6), Miami (21-5), Maryland (22-5), West Virginia (20-7)
The 4 line: Duke (20-7), Iowa St (19-8), Kentucky (20-7), Purdue (21-7)
The 5 line: Arizona (22-5), Baylor (19-7), Indiana (22-6), Utah (20-7)
The 6 line: Dayton (21-5), Texas A&M (20-7), Notre Dame (18-8), Texas (17-10)
The 7 line: USC (19-8), California (19-8), Colorado (18-9), Pittsburgh (18-7)
The 8 line: South Carolina (21-5), Providence (19-8), Seton Hall (19-7), St Joseph's (22-5)
The 9 line: Syracuse (18-10), Wichita St (20-7), Cincinnati (20-8), UConn (19-7)
The 10 line: Monmouth (22-6), Texas Tech (17-9), Wisconsin (17-10), Temple (17-9)
The 11 line: Florida (17-10), Valparaiso (22-5), George Washington (20-7), Butler (18-9)
The 12 line: VCU (20-7), St Mary's (21-5), Michigan (18-9), Gonzaga (20-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (22-3), San Diego St (18-7)
The 13 line: Akron (20-6), Chattanooga (22-5), UNC-Wilmington (19-6), IPFW (20-7)
The 14 line: Yale (17-6), Stony Brook (21-5), Hawaii (20-3), UAB (21-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (19-9), Stephen F Austin (16-5), New Mexico St (18-9), Winthrop (17-7)
The 16 line: Montana (14-8), North Florida (17-10), Bucknell (14-12), Wagner (17-9), Hampton (14-9), Texas Southern (13-12)
Next 4 in:
UConn
Monmouth***
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
Temple***
Florida
Last 4 in:
Valparaiso***
George Washington
Butler
VCU***
St Mary's***
Gonzaga
Last 4 out:
St Bonaventure (18-7)
Tulsa (18-9)
Oregon St (14-10)
Alabama (16-10)
Next 4 out:
Arkansas-Little Rock***
San Diego St***
Washington (16-11)
Vanderbilt (16-11)
Akron***
Clemson (16-11)
Chattanooga***
UCLA (16-12)
NIT
The 1 line: St Bonaventure (18-7), Tulsa (18-9), Oregon St (14-10), Alabama (16-10)
The 2 line: Washington (16-11), Vanderbilt (16-11), Clemson (16-11), UCLA (16-12)
The 3 line: Florida St (16-11), Ohio St (18-10), Georgia (14-11), Creighton (17-10)
The 4 line: LSU (16-11), BYU (20-8), Davidson (15-9), Kansas St (15-12)
The 5 line: Princeton (17-5), South Dakota St (19-7), Hofstra (19-8), Ole Miss (17-10)
The 6 line: Stanford (12-12), Georgia Tech (16-12), UC-Irvine (18-8), Fresno St (16-9)
The 7 line: Georgetown (14-14), Evansville (21-7), Houston (19-8), Ohio (17-8)
The 8 line: Boise St (15-10), William & Mary (16-9), James Madison (19-9), New Mexico (16-11)
Last 4 out:
Arizona St (14-13), Southern Illinois (21-8), Kent St (17-9), Rhode Island (16-12)
Sunday, February 21, 2016
2/21 recap
Boy, what a boring day.
@Maryland 86, Michigan 82 - no harm to Michigan, but they need some bit of progress at this point
Utah 80, @USC 69 - well, time to reshuffle the Pac a bit, I was higher on USC than most but this rather obviously bumps Utah up a notch
Service holds:
@SMU 74, East Carolina 63
Seton Hall 62, St John's 61
@George Washington 90, LaSalle 50
Tulsa 75, @Central Florida 67
Monmouth 82, @St Peter's 75 (OT)
@Valparaiso 90, Detroit 74
San Diego St 78, @San Jose St 56
Wichita St 84, @Indiana St 51
Temple 69, @Houston 66
@Wisconsin 69, Illinois 60
California 80, @Washington St 62
@Maryland 86, Michigan 82 - no harm to Michigan, but they need some bit of progress at this point
Utah 80, @USC 69 - well, time to reshuffle the Pac a bit, I was higher on USC than most but this rather obviously bumps Utah up a notch
Service holds:
@SMU 74, East Carolina 63
Seton Hall 62, St John's 61
@George Washington 90, LaSalle 50
Tulsa 75, @Central Florida 67
Monmouth 82, @St Peter's 75 (OT)
@Valparaiso 90, Detroit 74
San Diego St 78, @San Jose St 56
Wichita St 84, @Indiana St 51
Temple 69, @Houston 66
@Wisconsin 69, Illinois 60
California 80, @Washington St 62
2/20 recap
A-10:
St Bonaventure 79, @Dayton 72 - a signature road win! All the A-10 bubble teams are kind of getting jumbled up right now; tough to tell who's really ahead of who. But for now, Bonaventure has a signature road win, and Dayton has bled out of the top 4 lines
@Davidson 99, St Joseph's 93 - the first road loss all year, so it's much much easier to be forgiving of St Joe's for this one
ACC:
@North Carolina 96, Miami 71 - very important for UNC to reestablish itself as a 3 seed at worst
@Louisville 71, Duke 64
@Georgia Tech 63, Notre Dame 62 - at this point, it only hurts seeding for UND, but it is probably worth a seed line
Pittsburgh 66, @Syracuse 52 - people shouldn't be assuming Syracuse is home free
@Virginia Tech 83, Florida St 73 - just an absolutely catastrophic loss
@NC State 77, Clemso 74 - and speaking of castastrophic losses, this might be it for Clemson
AAC:
@Cincinnati 65, UConn 60 - this just draws both nearer to the cutline. More confusion
Big 12:
Kansas 72, @Kansas St 63
Oklahoma 76, @West Virginia 62 - feel better about keeping Oklahoma on the 1 line now. Kansas/Oklahoma/Villanova seems like an obvious order to me again
@Iowa St 92, TCU 83
Baylor 78, @Texas 64
Texas Tech 71, @Oklahoma St 61 - most important bubble win of the day, maybe
Big East:
@Villanova 77, Butler 67
Xavier 88, @Georgetown 70 - GU is dead
B1G:
@Indiana 77, Purdue 73 - status quo for both teams
Ohio St 65, @Nebraska 62 (OT) - OSU...not dead yet!
Pac-12:
@Oregon 91, Oregon St 81
@Washington 64, Stanford 53 - the bare minimum UW needed to stay alive
@UCLA 77, Colorado 53 - I'd prefer it if Colorado avoided these kinds of games so that they can stay a step ahead of the bubble
SEC:
@Texas A&M 79, Kentucky 77 (OT)
@South Carolina 73, Florida 69 (OT) - is Florida in trouble now? My answer: maybe
@Vanderbilt 80, Georgia 67 - a loser leaves town bubble game! Go away, Georgia
Mississippi St 67, @Alabama 61 - what a horrible loss
@Tennessee 81, LSU 65 - what
SoCon:
UNC-Greensboro 79, @Chattanooga 64 - regrettably, we've reached endgame on Chattanooga. UNC-G is .500 in conference, can't do this at home
Sun Belt:
Arkansas-Little Rock 76, @Georgia Southern 61
WCC:
St Mary's 63, @Gonzaga 58
@BYU 91, San Diego 33 - wat
NITWatch: Marquette wins on the road and is on track...Evansville over SIU and UNI beat Illinois St at home, there's room for probably 1, maybe 2 of these teams in the NIT at best...Mountain West is a mess. New Mexico lost to Air Force and UNLV beat Nevada. Fresno won at least; who knows what the pecking order is here...Ole Miss wins on the road and might get there...
miscellany:
- Hawaii on the road beats UC Irvine, they should win the Big West, and UCI might be on the wrong side of the NIT bubble now
- UNC-Wilmington wins again and frankly should end the CAA race soon. Meanwhile, William & Mary loses at home to terrible Drexel. What?!
- IvyWatch: Princeton, Columbia, Yale all hold serve
- Belmont beat Tennessee Tech and should put away the OVC from here
- Stephen F Austin is going to run the table in the Southland and no one should care because that conference was absolute garbage this year
- IPFW and South Dakota St hold serve in the Summit
St Bonaventure 79, @Dayton 72 - a signature road win! All the A-10 bubble teams are kind of getting jumbled up right now; tough to tell who's really ahead of who. But for now, Bonaventure has a signature road win, and Dayton has bled out of the top 4 lines
@Davidson 99, St Joseph's 93 - the first road loss all year, so it's much much easier to be forgiving of St Joe's for this one
ACC:
@North Carolina 96, Miami 71 - very important for UNC to reestablish itself as a 3 seed at worst
@Louisville 71, Duke 64
@Georgia Tech 63, Notre Dame 62 - at this point, it only hurts seeding for UND, but it is probably worth a seed line
Pittsburgh 66, @Syracuse 52 - people shouldn't be assuming Syracuse is home free
@Virginia Tech 83, Florida St 73 - just an absolutely catastrophic loss
@NC State 77, Clemso 74 - and speaking of castastrophic losses, this might be it for Clemson
AAC:
@Cincinnati 65, UConn 60 - this just draws both nearer to the cutline. More confusion
Big 12:
Kansas 72, @Kansas St 63
Oklahoma 76, @West Virginia 62 - feel better about keeping Oklahoma on the 1 line now. Kansas/Oklahoma/Villanova seems like an obvious order to me again
@Iowa St 92, TCU 83
Baylor 78, @Texas 64
Texas Tech 71, @Oklahoma St 61 - most important bubble win of the day, maybe
Big East:
@Villanova 77, Butler 67
Xavier 88, @Georgetown 70 - GU is dead
B1G:
@Indiana 77, Purdue 73 - status quo for both teams
Ohio St 65, @Nebraska 62 (OT) - OSU...not dead yet!
Pac-12:
@Oregon 91, Oregon St 81
@Washington 64, Stanford 53 - the bare minimum UW needed to stay alive
@UCLA 77, Colorado 53 - I'd prefer it if Colorado avoided these kinds of games so that they can stay a step ahead of the bubble
SEC:
@Texas A&M 79, Kentucky 77 (OT)
@South Carolina 73, Florida 69 (OT) - is Florida in trouble now? My answer: maybe
@Vanderbilt 80, Georgia 67 - a loser leaves town bubble game! Go away, Georgia
Mississippi St 67, @Alabama 61 - what a horrible loss
@Tennessee 81, LSU 65 - what
SoCon:
UNC-Greensboro 79, @Chattanooga 64 - regrettably, we've reached endgame on Chattanooga. UNC-G is .500 in conference, can't do this at home
Sun Belt:
Arkansas-Little Rock 76, @Georgia Southern 61
WCC:
St Mary's 63, @Gonzaga 58
@BYU 91, San Diego 33 - wat
NITWatch: Marquette wins on the road and is on track...Evansville over SIU and UNI beat Illinois St at home, there's room for probably 1, maybe 2 of these teams in the NIT at best...Mountain West is a mess. New Mexico lost to Air Force and UNLV beat Nevada. Fresno won at least; who knows what the pecking order is here...Ole Miss wins on the road and might get there...
miscellany:
- Hawaii on the road beats UC Irvine, they should win the Big West, and UCI might be on the wrong side of the NIT bubble now
- UNC-Wilmington wins again and frankly should end the CAA race soon. Meanwhile, William & Mary loses at home to terrible Drexel. What?!
- IvyWatch: Princeton, Columbia, Yale all hold serve
- Belmont beat Tennessee Tech and should put away the OVC from here
- Stephen F Austin is going to run the table in the Southland and no one should care because that conference was absolute garbage this year
- IPFW and South Dakota St hold serve in the Summit
Friday, February 19, 2016
2/19 recap
Iona 83, @Monmouth 67 - oh no. what now? Because I'm not sure what's next. This is worse than any road loss they have on the board, because of the home/road dynamics with their resume
@Kent St 85, Akron 76 - more interesting is the MAC race opening up, as Akron's at-large hopes were already by the boards
@VCU 87, Richmond 74
@Valparaiso 86, Oakland 84
IvyWatch: Princeton holds over Yale at home, keeping the race within reach. Yale 8-1, Princeton 7-1, Columbia 7-2. Game on
@Kent St 85, Akron 76 - more interesting is the MAC race opening up, as Akron's at-large hopes were already by the boards
@VCU 87, Richmond 74
@Valparaiso 86, Oakland 84
IvyWatch: Princeton holds over Yale at home, keeping the race within reach. Yale 8-1, Princeton 7-1, Columbia 7-2. Game on
2/19 S-CURVE
Short version. Bubble watch is coming very soon. Be excitebike.
AQ shenanigans:
SEC: Kentucky now leads alone, and this puts LSU back in the at-large pool
A-10: St Joe's is tied with Dayton and has a win over them. St Joe's to the AQ side of things
AAC: Temple still leads, and now it's outright without SMU in the way
Summit: IPFW now leads South Dakota St, and it could lead to an interesting NIT scenario where South Dakota St can get an at-large bid at the same time IPFW gets the autobid
ACC: This impacts seeding, not selection, but anyone realize Miami's tied for the lead now?
The 1 line: Kansas (21-4), Villanova (23-3), Virginia (21-5), Oklahoma (20-5)
The 2 line: Xavier (23-3), Iowa (20-6), Michigan St (21-5), Oregon (19-6)
The 3 line: Miami (21-4), Duke (20-6), North Carolina (21-5), West Virginia (20-6)
The 4 line: Maryland (21-5), Kentucky (20-6), Purdue (21-6), Dayton (21-4)
The 5 line: Iowa St (18-8), Arizona (22-5), USC (19-7), Notre Dame (18-7)
The 6 line: Texas (17-9), Indiana (21-6), Baylor (18-7), Utah (19-7)
The 7 line: Texas A&M (19-7), California (18-8), Colorado (18-8), Syracuse (18-9)
The 8 line: Pittsburgh (17-7), St Joseph's (22-4), Providence (19-8), Monmouth (22-5)
The 9 line: South Carolina (20-5), Seton Hall (18-7), UConn (19-7), Wichita St (19-7)
The 10 line: Florida (17-9), Michigan (18-8), Butler (18-8), Wisconsin (16-10)
The 11 line: Alabama (16-9), Temple (16-9), Gonzaga (20-6), Valparaiso (20-5)
The 12 line: Texas Tech (16-9), George Washington (19-7), VCU (19-7), Oregon St (14-9), Chattanooga (22-4), San Diego St (17-7)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little ROck (21-3), Akron (20-5), UNC-Wilmington (18-6), Yale (16-5)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (20-5), IPFW (19-7), Hawaii (19-3), UAB (20-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (18-9), New Mexico St (17-9), Stephen F Austin (15-5), Montana (13-8)
The 16 line: UNC-Asheville (16-9), North Florida (16-10), Bucknell (13-12), Wagner (16-9), Hampton (13-9), Texas Southern (12-12)
Next 4 in:
Michigan
Butler
Wisconsin
Alabama
Temple***
Gonzaga***
Valparaiso***
Last 4 in:
Texas Tech
George Washington
VCU
Oregon St
Last 4 out:
Cincinnati (19-8)
Flroida St (16-10)
St Bonaventure (17-7)
Tulsa (17-9)
Next 4 out:
St Mary's (20-4)
Clemson (16-10)
Washington (15-11)
Chattanooga***
San Diego St***
Arkansas-Little Rock***
LSU (16-10)
AQ shenanigans:
SEC: Kentucky now leads alone, and this puts LSU back in the at-large pool
A-10: St Joe's is tied with Dayton and has a win over them. St Joe's to the AQ side of things
AAC: Temple still leads, and now it's outright without SMU in the way
Summit: IPFW now leads South Dakota St, and it could lead to an interesting NIT scenario where South Dakota St can get an at-large bid at the same time IPFW gets the autobid
ACC: This impacts seeding, not selection, but anyone realize Miami's tied for the lead now?
The 1 line: Kansas (21-4), Villanova (23-3), Virginia (21-5), Oklahoma (20-5)
The 2 line: Xavier (23-3), Iowa (20-6), Michigan St (21-5), Oregon (19-6)
The 3 line: Miami (21-4), Duke (20-6), North Carolina (21-5), West Virginia (20-6)
The 4 line: Maryland (21-5), Kentucky (20-6), Purdue (21-6), Dayton (21-4)
The 5 line: Iowa St (18-8), Arizona (22-5), USC (19-7), Notre Dame (18-7)
The 6 line: Texas (17-9), Indiana (21-6), Baylor (18-7), Utah (19-7)
The 7 line: Texas A&M (19-7), California (18-8), Colorado (18-8), Syracuse (18-9)
The 8 line: Pittsburgh (17-7), St Joseph's (22-4), Providence (19-8), Monmouth (22-5)
The 9 line: South Carolina (20-5), Seton Hall (18-7), UConn (19-7), Wichita St (19-7)
The 10 line: Florida (17-9), Michigan (18-8), Butler (18-8), Wisconsin (16-10)
The 11 line: Alabama (16-9), Temple (16-9), Gonzaga (20-6), Valparaiso (20-5)
The 12 line: Texas Tech (16-9), George Washington (19-7), VCU (19-7), Oregon St (14-9), Chattanooga (22-4), San Diego St (17-7)
The 13 line: Arkansas-Little ROck (21-3), Akron (20-5), UNC-Wilmington (18-6), Yale (16-5)
The 14 line: Stony Brook (20-5), IPFW (19-7), Hawaii (19-3), UAB (20-5)
The 15 line: Belmont (18-9), New Mexico St (17-9), Stephen F Austin (15-5), Montana (13-8)
The 16 line: UNC-Asheville (16-9), North Florida (16-10), Bucknell (13-12), Wagner (16-9), Hampton (13-9), Texas Southern (12-12)
Next 4 in:
Michigan
Butler
Wisconsin
Alabama
Temple***
Gonzaga***
Valparaiso***
Last 4 in:
Texas Tech
George Washington
VCU
Oregon St
Last 4 out:
Cincinnati (19-8)
Flroida St (16-10)
St Bonaventure (17-7)
Tulsa (17-9)
Next 4 out:
St Mary's (20-4)
Clemson (16-10)
Washington (15-11)
Chattanooga***
San Diego St***
Arkansas-Little Rock***
LSU (16-10)
2/18 recap
B1G:
@Minnesota 68, Maryland 63 - what in the wide world of sport is Maryland doing losing in this spot?
@Michigan St 69, Wisconsin 57 - all of a sudden, is it Michigan St with the best resume in the conference? This might override the H2H results with Iowa
SEC:
@Kentucky 80, Tennessee 70 - UK, quietly handling their business and climbing the seed lines
Pac-12:
Utah 75, @UCLA 73 - welcome Utah to the lockbox, and this is just about endgame for UCLA
Stanford 72, @Washington St 56 - as absurd as it sounds...Stanford isn't dead yet. A mandatory one coming up at Washington, but still
California 78, @Washington 75 - Cal's almost ready for the lockbox, and Washington is almost ready to come off the bubble. The Pac-12 is separating very nicely, with the Utah/Cal/Colorado tier mostly separating into the field and the UCLA/Washington/ASU/Stanford tier going the other way
AAC:
@UConn 68, SMU 62 - a signature win, and now I feel very comfortable calling them the #1 AAC team and safe (relatively, at least) for now
@Tulsa 70, Cincinnati 68 (OT) - they've mostly been ignored in bubble talk, but Cincy is in all sorts of trouble now
MVC:
@Wichita St 99, Missouri St 68
WCC:
@Gonzaga 90, Pacific 68
St Mary's 74, @Portland 72 - it doesn't matter how bad Portland win, every single road win by St Mary's is significant
BYU 69, @San Diego 67
mid-majors:
@Chattanooga 85, VMI 59
Arkansas-Little Rock 57, @Georgia St 49 - road wins are never trivial
CAAWatch!: Hofstra beats Towson at home...Northeastern in a 3OT game on the road at JMU...and the biggie, William & Mary holds at home over UNC-Wilmington. UNC-W is +1 on Hofstra and +2 on W&M with 3 to play, and it's also going to be down to those 3 on the NIT at-large bubble
SummitWatch!: IPFW beats South Dakota St at home. They lead them by 1 with 3 to play, and South Dakota St does have a NIT at-large bid worthy resume if it comes to it
@Minnesota 68, Maryland 63 - what in the wide world of sport is Maryland doing losing in this spot?
@Michigan St 69, Wisconsin 57 - all of a sudden, is it Michigan St with the best resume in the conference? This might override the H2H results with Iowa
SEC:
@Kentucky 80, Tennessee 70 - UK, quietly handling their business and climbing the seed lines
Pac-12:
Utah 75, @UCLA 73 - welcome Utah to the lockbox, and this is just about endgame for UCLA
Stanford 72, @Washington St 56 - as absurd as it sounds...Stanford isn't dead yet. A mandatory one coming up at Washington, but still
California 78, @Washington 75 - Cal's almost ready for the lockbox, and Washington is almost ready to come off the bubble. The Pac-12 is separating very nicely, with the Utah/Cal/Colorado tier mostly separating into the field and the UCLA/Washington/ASU/Stanford tier going the other way
AAC:
@UConn 68, SMU 62 - a signature win, and now I feel very comfortable calling them the #1 AAC team and safe (relatively, at least) for now
@Tulsa 70, Cincinnati 68 (OT) - they've mostly been ignored in bubble talk, but Cincy is in all sorts of trouble now
MVC:
@Wichita St 99, Missouri St 68
WCC:
@Gonzaga 90, Pacific 68
St Mary's 74, @Portland 72 - it doesn't matter how bad Portland win, every single road win by St Mary's is significant
BYU 69, @San Diego 67
mid-majors:
@Chattanooga 85, VMI 59
Arkansas-Little Rock 57, @Georgia St 49 - road wins are never trivial
CAAWatch!: Hofstra beats Towson at home...Northeastern in a 3OT game on the road at JMU...and the biggie, William & Mary holds at home over UNC-Wilmington. UNC-W is +1 on Hofstra and +2 on W&M with 3 to play, and it's also going to be down to those 3 on the NIT at-large bubble
SummitWatch!: IPFW beats South Dakota St at home. They lead them by 1 with 3 to play, and South Dakota St does have a NIT at-large bid worthy resume if it comes to it
Thursday, February 18, 2016
2/17 recap
non-con:
Villanova 83, @Temple 67 - no real harm to Temple
Big 12:
@Texas Tech 65, Oklahoma 63 - allow me a minor rant. This entire season, I've been against TTU's resume as a whole. I watched while the rest of the country, like idiots, projected TTU in their brackets in January and February. I called them morons, they were obviously wrong, all the evidence said they weren't a tournament team, yet they were sheep. I was going to be vindicated in March by being right and everyone else being wrong. But now instead TTU is finally picking up resume-building wins, and they might be legitimately in the tourney now. And all those morons are going to be right, but for the wrong reasons. Whatever
B1G:
@Penn St 79, Iowa 75 - it was a good thought, but I think we're permanently done with the Iowa and the 1 seed discussion
@Indiana 80, Nebraska 64
ACC:
Duke 74, @North Carolina 73 - I don't see how UNC can get a 1 seed without a very big run at this point
@Miami 65, Virginia Tech 49
@Louisville 72, Syracuse 58
@Clemson 65, Boston College 54
Georgia Tech 86, @Florida St 80 - this is a nominee for Catastrophic Loss of the Entire Damned Season right here
Big East:
@Xavier 85, Providence 74 - no one seems to be on the bandwagon for X on the 1 line. Curious. It's likely they could get passed by even if they win out, because the committee has shown an irrational liking towards conference championships and X is blocked by Nova
Seton Hall 72, @Georgetown 64 - road wins are never trivial, remember
Pac-12:
@Arizona 99, Arizona St 61
@USC 79, Colorado 72 - this is likely just to impact seeding for both at this point
SEC:
Alabama 76, @LSU 69 - this is actually turning into a legitimate run by Bama to the bubble. LSU, well, who the hell knows at this point. I don't
A-10:
@St Joseph's 79, Dayton 70 - Dayton's grip on a protected seed might be gone; St Joe's is now well inside the tourney cutline
George Washington 81, @Duquesne 74 - road wins are never trivial
@LaSalle 71, St Bonaventure 64 - this is why road wins are never trivial. Catastrophic loss here
NITWatch: Illinois St, Evansville, and Southern Illinois win in the MVC. ISU has the in-conference record advantage at 11-4, UE has the best profile, SIU has the best W-L. You tell me what the NIT will do...meanwhile, UNI lost...Fresno and Nevada won on the road, both on the fringes of the NIT bubble...Houston won...and in the biggest NIT bubble game, New Mexico holds at home over Boise...Irvine won...
Villanova 83, @Temple 67 - no real harm to Temple
Big 12:
@Texas Tech 65, Oklahoma 63 - allow me a minor rant. This entire season, I've been against TTU's resume as a whole. I watched while the rest of the country, like idiots, projected TTU in their brackets in January and February. I called them morons, they were obviously wrong, all the evidence said they weren't a tournament team, yet they were sheep. I was going to be vindicated in March by being right and everyone else being wrong. But now instead TTU is finally picking up resume-building wins, and they might be legitimately in the tourney now. And all those morons are going to be right, but for the wrong reasons. Whatever
B1G:
@Penn St 79, Iowa 75 - it was a good thought, but I think we're permanently done with the Iowa and the 1 seed discussion
@Indiana 80, Nebraska 64
ACC:
Duke 74, @North Carolina 73 - I don't see how UNC can get a 1 seed without a very big run at this point
@Miami 65, Virginia Tech 49
@Louisville 72, Syracuse 58
@Clemson 65, Boston College 54
Georgia Tech 86, @Florida St 80 - this is a nominee for Catastrophic Loss of the Entire Damned Season right here
Big East:
@Xavier 85, Providence 74 - no one seems to be on the bandwagon for X on the 1 line. Curious. It's likely they could get passed by even if they win out, because the committee has shown an irrational liking towards conference championships and X is blocked by Nova
Seton Hall 72, @Georgetown 64 - road wins are never trivial, remember
Pac-12:
@Arizona 99, Arizona St 61
@USC 79, Colorado 72 - this is likely just to impact seeding for both at this point
SEC:
Alabama 76, @LSU 69 - this is actually turning into a legitimate run by Bama to the bubble. LSU, well, who the hell knows at this point. I don't
A-10:
@St Joseph's 79, Dayton 70 - Dayton's grip on a protected seed might be gone; St Joe's is now well inside the tourney cutline
George Washington 81, @Duquesne 74 - road wins are never trivial
@LaSalle 71, St Bonaventure 64 - this is why road wins are never trivial. Catastrophic loss here
NITWatch: Illinois St, Evansville, and Southern Illinois win in the MVC. ISU has the in-conference record advantage at 11-4, UE has the best profile, SIU has the best W-L. You tell me what the NIT will do...meanwhile, UNI lost...Fresno and Nevada won on the road, both on the fringes of the NIT bubble...Houston won...and in the biggest NIT bubble game, New Mexico holds at home over Boise...Irvine won...
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
2/16 recap
Big 12:
@Texas 85, West Virginia 78 - a modest blow to WVU's seed line, a modest boon to Texas'
@Baylor 100, Iowa St 91 (OT) - same story, different teams. Everyone behind Kansas and Oklahoma are starting to collect together around the 3-5 lines. A perfect storm is brewing in the conference where everyone beats each other and gives each other quality wins. For people who think the Big 12 is overrated, this is your hell. You're there. Sorry, they're all going to be high seeds
B1G:
@Purdue 71, Northwestern 61
@Ohio St 76, Michigan 66 - Michigan seems to be intent on doing the bare minimum to stay in the tournament field. Meanwhile. Ohio St: not dead yet!
Big East:
@Butler 88, Creighton 75 - an important service hold for Butler, and an important opportunity by the boards for Creighton
ACC:
@Pittsburgh 101, Wake Forest 96 (2OT) - well that was almost not very good
SEC:
@Missouri 72, South Carolina 67 - See, THIS is why no one wants to give you any credit, South Carolina. Because you can go do something stupid like this that costs you two seed lines
Florida 57, @Georgia 53 - road wins are never trivial. Georgia's just about out of time here
@Texas A&M 71, Ole Miss 56
@Mississippi St 75, Vanderbilt 54 - your catastrophic bubble loss of the day
A-10:
@VCU 83, Rhode Island 67
MAC:
@Akron 80, Buffalo 70
Horizon:
Valparaiso 66, @Cleveland St 43
NITWatch: Davidson handles Richmond at home...Kansas St over TCU, and yes, shut the hell up. This is the section where K-State belongs. Not above with the legit bubble teams. If you disagree, you're wrong and I'll fight you
@Texas 85, West Virginia 78 - a modest blow to WVU's seed line, a modest boon to Texas'
@Baylor 100, Iowa St 91 (OT) - same story, different teams. Everyone behind Kansas and Oklahoma are starting to collect together around the 3-5 lines. A perfect storm is brewing in the conference where everyone beats each other and gives each other quality wins. For people who think the Big 12 is overrated, this is your hell. You're there. Sorry, they're all going to be high seeds
B1G:
@Purdue 71, Northwestern 61
@Ohio St 76, Michigan 66 - Michigan seems to be intent on doing the bare minimum to stay in the tournament field. Meanwhile. Ohio St: not dead yet!
Big East:
@Butler 88, Creighton 75 - an important service hold for Butler, and an important opportunity by the boards for Creighton
ACC:
@Pittsburgh 101, Wake Forest 96 (2OT) - well that was almost not very good
SEC:
@Missouri 72, South Carolina 67 - See, THIS is why no one wants to give you any credit, South Carolina. Because you can go do something stupid like this that costs you two seed lines
Florida 57, @Georgia 53 - road wins are never trivial. Georgia's just about out of time here
@Texas A&M 71, Ole Miss 56
@Mississippi St 75, Vanderbilt 54 - your catastrophic bubble loss of the day
A-10:
@VCU 83, Rhode Island 67
MAC:
@Akron 80, Buffalo 70
Horizon:
Valparaiso 66, @Cleveland St 43
NITWatch: Davidson handles Richmond at home...Kansas St over TCU, and yes, shut the hell up. This is the section where K-State belongs. Not above with the legit bubble teams. If you disagree, you're wrong and I'll fight you
Monday, February 15, 2016
2/15 recap
A very boring night. Service holds for everyone in action
@Kansas 94, Oklahoma St 67
@Virginia 73, NC State 53
@Monmouth 79, Manhattan 70
@Wichita St 71, New Mexico St 41
@Kansas 94, Oklahoma St 67
@Virginia 73, NC State 53
@Monmouth 79, Manhattan 70
@Wichita St 71, New Mexico St 41
Some absolutely silly NIT/Vegas/CIT/CBI projections
DISCLAIMER: Always remember these are loose projections at best. We don't know who will turn down a bid to Vegas/CBI/CIT. The purpose of these is to show the types of teams in play for each tournament, not to make concrete predictions for any individual team.
Let's start with the moderately silly NIT projections:
The 1 line: Oregon St (14-9), Alabama (15-9), George Washington (18-7), Washington (15-10)
The 2 line: Texas Tech (15-9), Clemson (15-10), St Mary's (19-4), Tulsa (16-9)
The 3 line: Vanderbilt (15-10), UCLA (14-11), Creighton (17-9), Georgia (14-9)
The 4 line: Ohio St (16-10), Kansas St (14-11), BYU (18-8), Arizona St (14-12)
The 5 line: Davidson (13-9), Stanford (11-11), William & Mary (15-8), Ole Miss (16-9)
The 6 line: Virginia Tech (13-12), Nebraska (14-12), Boise St (15-9), Marquette (16-10)
The 7 line: Princeton (15-5), Northern Iowa (15-11), IPFW (18-7), Ohio (15-8)
The 8 line: UC-Irvine (17-7), Hofstra (17-8), Illinois St (15-11), Middle Tennessee (16-7)
History suggests the bottom 10 or so teams will get lopped off for automatic qualifiers. Naturally, that's where I put all the at-large mid major teams, to simulate the eventual screwing they'll get from the NIT committee. I don't think there's anything revolutionary about these, with the possible exception of sneaking VaTech and Nebraska in there on the 6 line. Their RPIs are dreadful but they might do enough in conference to get a look. Pretty good chance they'll both fall out with many losses, though.
Next, the Vegas 16. Again, remember that Vegas begins their own postseason tournament this year. A 16 team bracket, every game at a neutral site in Vegas. This is very wild speculation about who will show up. Take these not with a grain of salt but an entire salt factory. My guess is we see upper and high majors take spots in these tournaments as a preference to the CBI where you pay to host. I think Vegas will get first pick of many of the best teams available, since the neutral site format along with the quick nature of the tournament (the entire thing will take place over about 5 days) will attract many teams who would otherwise pass on the CBI and CIT.
So for now, let's go with these 16 teams as the best available not in the NIT:
Northwestern (17-9) vs. Oakland (18-9)
Southern Illinois (20-7) vs. Memphis (14-11)
Georgia Tech (13-12) vs. James Madison (18-8)
North Carolina St (13-12) vs. Richmond (14-10)
Rhode Island (14-11) vs. Evansville (19-7)
Houston (18-7) vs. New Mexico (15-10)
Nevada (13-9) vs. Long Beach St (12-12)
Grand Canyon (20-4) vs. Pepperdine (15-10)
Let's do the CIT next. As always, take a grain of salt with these projections. I am not attempting to guess which teams would decline a bid at this point. My goal is to highlight the types of teams who are best available for the CIT, and to give fans an idea of the types of opponents they might face in the tournament. Again, I repeat: I AM MAKING NO ATTEMPTS TO GUESS WHICH TEAMS WOULD DECLINE A CBI/CIT BID. If I see concrete evidence a team would decline a bid, then I won't project them.
Siena (18-9) vs. Albany (20-7)
Iona (14-10) vs. Buffalo (13-11)
Wagner (15-9) vs. Duquesne (14-10)
NJIT (15-11) vs. Columbia (15-8)
Navy (17-9) vs. Marshall (13-12)
Winthrop (15-7) vs. Charleston (15-9)
East Tennessee St (14-10) vs. Towson (16-9)
South Carolina St (12-12) vs. Furman (15-11)
Green Bay (13-11) vs. Omaha (15-10)
Wright St (14-11) vs. Tennessee St (16-7)
Kent St (15-9) vs. Belmont (17-9)
Louisiana-Lafayette (12-9) vs. Louisiana Tech (17-6)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (16-6) vs. Texas-Arlington (16-7)
Southern (14-8) vs. Weber St (15-7)
UNLV (13-11) vs. North Dakota St (14-10)
Cal St-Bakersfield (15-7) vs. Fresno St (14-9)
And finally, the CBI. I took the liberty of projecting a few below .500 teams to simulate what will actually happen with the tournament. I am projecting that most or all mid-majors will lean to the CIT if given a choice between the CBI and CIT.
Mercer (16-9) vs. Central Florida (11-12)
Ball St (15-9) vs. Arkansas (12-13)
Boston (15-11) vs. Northeastern (13-13)
New Hampshire (13-10) vs. Penn St (12-13)
Indiana St (12-13) vs. Northern Illinois (13-8)
Toledo (15-9) vs. Tennessee (12-13)
UC Santa Barbara (10-12) vs. San Francisco (13-11)
Colorado St (12-11) vs. Oklahoma St (12-13)
Any finally, the list of best available not projected in a tournament. In practice, a majority, but not all, of these teams will eventually have a shot at a tourney as others turn down bids.
Georgia St (11-10), Milwaukee (14-10), Morehead St (13-11), Vermont (14-12)
Coastal Carolina (13-9), High Point (13-9), Eastern Washington (13-10), Incarnate Word (10-8)
Fordham (11-11), Elon (12-13), Denver (13-13), Utah St (10-11)
Lousiana-Monroe (11-12), Wofford (12-13), St Peter's (11-13), Fairfield (14-11)
Murray St (12-12), Army (14-11), Radford (12-12), FGCU (11-12)
Idaho (14-10), St Francis(PA) (12-12), Old Dominion (14-11), UTEP (14-11)
Let's start with the moderately silly NIT projections:
The 1 line: Oregon St (14-9), Alabama (15-9), George Washington (18-7), Washington (15-10)
The 2 line: Texas Tech (15-9), Clemson (15-10), St Mary's (19-4), Tulsa (16-9)
The 3 line: Vanderbilt (15-10), UCLA (14-11), Creighton (17-9), Georgia (14-9)
The 4 line: Ohio St (16-10), Kansas St (14-11), BYU (18-8), Arizona St (14-12)
The 5 line: Davidson (13-9), Stanford (11-11), William & Mary (15-8), Ole Miss (16-9)
The 6 line: Virginia Tech (13-12), Nebraska (14-12), Boise St (15-9), Marquette (16-10)
The 7 line: Princeton (15-5), Northern Iowa (15-11), IPFW (18-7), Ohio (15-8)
The 8 line: UC-Irvine (17-7), Hofstra (17-8), Illinois St (15-11), Middle Tennessee (16-7)
History suggests the bottom 10 or so teams will get lopped off for automatic qualifiers. Naturally, that's where I put all the at-large mid major teams, to simulate the eventual screwing they'll get from the NIT committee. I don't think there's anything revolutionary about these, with the possible exception of sneaking VaTech and Nebraska in there on the 6 line. Their RPIs are dreadful but they might do enough in conference to get a look. Pretty good chance they'll both fall out with many losses, though.
Next, the Vegas 16. Again, remember that Vegas begins their own postseason tournament this year. A 16 team bracket, every game at a neutral site in Vegas. This is very wild speculation about who will show up. Take these not with a grain of salt but an entire salt factory. My guess is we see upper and high majors take spots in these tournaments as a preference to the CBI where you pay to host. I think Vegas will get first pick of many of the best teams available, since the neutral site format along with the quick nature of the tournament (the entire thing will take place over about 5 days) will attract many teams who would otherwise pass on the CBI and CIT.
So for now, let's go with these 16 teams as the best available not in the NIT:
Northwestern (17-9) vs. Oakland (18-9)
Southern Illinois (20-7) vs. Memphis (14-11)
Georgia Tech (13-12) vs. James Madison (18-8)
North Carolina St (13-12) vs. Richmond (14-10)
Rhode Island (14-11) vs. Evansville (19-7)
Houston (18-7) vs. New Mexico (15-10)
Nevada (13-9) vs. Long Beach St (12-12)
Grand Canyon (20-4) vs. Pepperdine (15-10)
Let's do the CIT next. As always, take a grain of salt with these projections. I am not attempting to guess which teams would decline a bid at this point. My goal is to highlight the types of teams who are best available for the CIT, and to give fans an idea of the types of opponents they might face in the tournament. Again, I repeat: I AM MAKING NO ATTEMPTS TO GUESS WHICH TEAMS WOULD DECLINE A CBI/CIT BID. If I see concrete evidence a team would decline a bid, then I won't project them.
Siena (18-9) vs. Albany (20-7)
Iona (14-10) vs. Buffalo (13-11)
Wagner (15-9) vs. Duquesne (14-10)
NJIT (15-11) vs. Columbia (15-8)
Navy (17-9) vs. Marshall (13-12)
Winthrop (15-7) vs. Charleston (15-9)
East Tennessee St (14-10) vs. Towson (16-9)
South Carolina St (12-12) vs. Furman (15-11)
Green Bay (13-11) vs. Omaha (15-10)
Wright St (14-11) vs. Tennessee St (16-7)
Kent St (15-9) vs. Belmont (17-9)
Louisiana-Lafayette (12-9) vs. Louisiana Tech (17-6)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (16-6) vs. Texas-Arlington (16-7)
Southern (14-8) vs. Weber St (15-7)
UNLV (13-11) vs. North Dakota St (14-10)
Cal St-Bakersfield (15-7) vs. Fresno St (14-9)
And finally, the CBI. I took the liberty of projecting a few below .500 teams to simulate what will actually happen with the tournament. I am projecting that most or all mid-majors will lean to the CIT if given a choice between the CBI and CIT.
Mercer (16-9) vs. Central Florida (11-12)
Ball St (15-9) vs. Arkansas (12-13)
Boston (15-11) vs. Northeastern (13-13)
New Hampshire (13-10) vs. Penn St (12-13)
Indiana St (12-13) vs. Northern Illinois (13-8)
Toledo (15-9) vs. Tennessee (12-13)
UC Santa Barbara (10-12) vs. San Francisco (13-11)
Colorado St (12-11) vs. Oklahoma St (12-13)
Any finally, the list of best available not projected in a tournament. In practice, a majority, but not all, of these teams will eventually have a shot at a tourney as others turn down bids.
Georgia St (11-10), Milwaukee (14-10), Morehead St (13-11), Vermont (14-12)
Coastal Carolina (13-9), High Point (13-9), Eastern Washington (13-10), Incarnate Word (10-8)
Fordham (11-11), Elon (12-13), Denver (13-13), Utah St (10-11)
Lousiana-Monroe (11-12), Wofford (12-13), St Peter's (11-13), Fairfield (14-11)
Murray St (12-12), Army (14-11), Radford (12-12), FGCU (11-12)
Idaho (14-10), St Francis(PA) (12-12), Old Dominion (14-11), UTEP (14-11)
2/15 BRACKET
SOUTH
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (20-4) vs. 16) Hampton (13-9)/Texas Southern (11-12)
8) Syracuse (18-8) vs. 9) Seton Hall (17-7)
@Denver
4) Dayton (21-3) vs. 13) Arkansas-Litle Rock (20-3)
5) USC (18-7) vs. 12) Valparaiso (19-5)
@Brooklyn
3) Maryland (21-4) vs. 14) Stony Brook (20-4)
6) Baylor (17-7) vs. 11) Florida St (16-9)/St Bonaventure (17-6)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (21-4) vs. 15) Tennessee Tech (16-8)
7) Colorado (18-7) vs. 10) Florida (16-9)
WEST
@St Louis
1) Xavier (22-3) vs. 16) UNC-Asheville (15-9)
8) Michigan (18-7) vs. 9) St Joseph's (21-4)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (18-7) vs. 13) South Dakota St (18-6)
5) Arizona (21-5) vs. 12) San Diego St (17-7)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (20-4) vs. 14) UAB (20-5)
6) Texas (16-9) vs. 11) LSU (16-9)
@St Louis
2) Michigan St (21-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (14-5)
7) California (17-8) vs. 10) Wichita St (17-7)
EAST
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (22-3) vs. 16) Bucknell (12-12)/Fairleigh Dickinson (12-12)
8) Pittsburgh (16-7) vs. 9) Monmouth (21-5)
@Spokane
4) Purdue (20-6) vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington (18-5)
5) Notre Dame (18-7) vs. 12) Chattanooga (21-4)
@Providence
3) West Virginia (20-5) vs. 14) Yale (16-5)
6) Indiana (20-6) vs. 11) UConn (18-7)
@Raleigh
2) Virginia (20-5) vs. 15) Montana (13-8)
7) South Carolina (20-4) vs. 10) Temple (16-8)
MIDWEST
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (20-4) vs. 16) North Florida (15-10)
8) Providence (19-7) vs. 9) Wisconsin (16-9)
@Providence
4) Duke (19-6) vs. 13) Akron (19-5)
5) Kentucky (19-6) vs. 12) VCU (18-7)/Cincinnati (19-7)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (19-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (18-3)
6) Texas A&M (18-7) vs. 11) Gonzaga (19-6)
@Des Moines
2) Iowa (20-5) vs. 15) New Mexico St (16-8)
7) Utah (18-7) vs. 10) Butler (17-8)
@Des Moines
1) Kansas (20-4) vs. 16) Hampton (13-9)/Texas Southern (11-12)
8) Syracuse (18-8) vs. 9) Seton Hall (17-7)
@Denver
4) Dayton (21-3) vs. 13) Arkansas-Litle Rock (20-3)
5) USC (18-7) vs. 12) Valparaiso (19-5)
@Brooklyn
3) Maryland (21-4) vs. 14) Stony Brook (20-4)
6) Baylor (17-7) vs. 11) Florida St (16-9)/St Bonaventure (17-6)
@Raleigh
2) North Carolina (21-4) vs. 15) Tennessee Tech (16-8)
7) Colorado (18-7) vs. 10) Florida (16-9)
WEST
@St Louis
1) Xavier (22-3) vs. 16) UNC-Asheville (15-9)
8) Michigan (18-7) vs. 9) St Joseph's (21-4)
@Denver
4) Iowa St (18-7) vs. 13) South Dakota St (18-6)
5) Arizona (21-5) vs. 12) San Diego St (17-7)
@Oklahoma City
3) Miami (20-4) vs. 14) UAB (20-5)
6) Texas (16-9) vs. 11) LSU (16-9)
@St Louis
2) Michigan St (21-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (14-5)
7) California (17-8) vs. 10) Wichita St (17-7)
EAST
@Brooklyn
1) Villanova (22-3) vs. 16) Bucknell (12-12)/Fairleigh Dickinson (12-12)
8) Pittsburgh (16-7) vs. 9) Monmouth (21-5)
@Spokane
4) Purdue (20-6) vs. 13) UNC-Wilmington (18-5)
5) Notre Dame (18-7) vs. 12) Chattanooga (21-4)
@Providence
3) West Virginia (20-5) vs. 14) Yale (16-5)
6) Indiana (20-6) vs. 11) UConn (18-7)
@Raleigh
2) Virginia (20-5) vs. 15) Montana (13-8)
7) South Carolina (20-4) vs. 10) Temple (16-8)
MIDWEST
@Oklahoma City
1) Oklahoma (20-4) vs. 16) North Florida (15-10)
8) Providence (19-7) vs. 9) Wisconsin (16-9)
@Providence
4) Duke (19-6) vs. 13) Akron (19-5)
5) Kentucky (19-6) vs. 12) VCU (18-7)/Cincinnati (19-7)
@Spokane
3) Oregon (19-6) vs. 14) Hawaii (18-3)
6) Texas A&M (18-7) vs. 11) Gonzaga (19-6)
@Des Moines
2) Iowa (20-5) vs. 15) New Mexico St (16-8)
7) Utah (18-7) vs. 10) Butler (17-8)
The top 4 lines
I ran into a catastrophic scenario when bracketing today.
Remember there's a 4 in 4 rule? The top 4 teams from a conference must be placed in four separate regionals, if each of the teams are top 4 seeds. Among the top 16 overall seeds, the top 4 from each conference should be in different regionals to separate the best from playing each other too early.
Teams in my top 16, based on conference affiliation:
B1G 4 teams, ACC 4 teams, Big 12 4 teams. And Big East 2, A-10 1, Pac-12 1.
Therefore, right away, we know each of the four regionals MUST contain exactly one B1G team, one ACC team, and one Big 12 team. This causes a catastrophic domino effect:
1) First, place the 1 seeds in regionals. Kansas in the South, Oklahoma in the Midwest, Villanova in the East, and Xavier in the West. See the problem already? The East and West regionals must have 1 B1G team, 1 ACC team, and 1 Big 12 team, but both have taken a Big East team as their fourth team already. Therefore, Oregon, despite being the highest 3 seed, is already locked out of playing in the West regional.
2) The 2 seeds are placed in next, but because of the eastern imbalance, the West regional has the weakest 1 seed and weakest 2 seed (Michigan St in this scenario). At this point, the combinations are Kansas/UNC, Xavier/Michigan St, Villanova/Virginia, and Oklahoma/Iowa.
3) You can see the problems already. Oregon goes to the Midwest regional as the next highest seed, to join Oklahoma/Iowa. Once you do this, an ACC team is forced into the regional in the 4 line, which is Duke. This forces Miami to the west regional. That's right, even though Miami is higher than Duke in the rankings, they get shipped all the way across the country while Duke stays relatively close to home, just because of Oregon's presence. And once that happens, Iowa St is locked into the West regional, which locks West Virginia into the East regional. And because WVU has to go East, Maryland gets kicked out of its preferred East regional, which kicks Purdue out of the South regional they prefer. All of this is a nasty chain reaction that starts because Oregon got displaced because the Big East has two 1 seeds.
4) Another nasty side effect is that you can't adjust this bracket for balance. Since everyone is forced into a specific spot, you can't adjust for imbalanced regionals. Well, guess what happens:
- The West regional has the worst 1, 2, and 3 seeds, and the second worst 4 seed
- The Midwest regional has the second best 1 seed...and the best 2, 3, and 4 seeds
This is incredible imbalance, but there is no way to fix this without violating another rule.
5) There is exactly one fix: a procedural bump of Xavier to the 2 line and Iowa to the 1 line. That would be unprecedented, but this might be the one unique scenario where the committee might sell its soul to the devil.
6) Well, there might be a second fix: Oklahoma in the West regional.
The final regionals I came up with:
SOUTH 32
Kansas
UNC
Maryland
Dayton
WEST 39
Xavier
MSU
Miami
Iowa St
EAST 36
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Purdue
MIDWEST 29
Oklahoma
Iowa
Oregon
Duke
Remember there's a 4 in 4 rule? The top 4 teams from a conference must be placed in four separate regionals, if each of the teams are top 4 seeds. Among the top 16 overall seeds, the top 4 from each conference should be in different regionals to separate the best from playing each other too early.
Teams in my top 16, based on conference affiliation:
B1G 4 teams, ACC 4 teams, Big 12 4 teams. And Big East 2, A-10 1, Pac-12 1.
Therefore, right away, we know each of the four regionals MUST contain exactly one B1G team, one ACC team, and one Big 12 team. This causes a catastrophic domino effect:
1) First, place the 1 seeds in regionals. Kansas in the South, Oklahoma in the Midwest, Villanova in the East, and Xavier in the West. See the problem already? The East and West regionals must have 1 B1G team, 1 ACC team, and 1 Big 12 team, but both have taken a Big East team as their fourth team already. Therefore, Oregon, despite being the highest 3 seed, is already locked out of playing in the West regional.
2) The 2 seeds are placed in next, but because of the eastern imbalance, the West regional has the weakest 1 seed and weakest 2 seed (Michigan St in this scenario). At this point, the combinations are Kansas/UNC, Xavier/Michigan St, Villanova/Virginia, and Oklahoma/Iowa.
3) You can see the problems already. Oregon goes to the Midwest regional as the next highest seed, to join Oklahoma/Iowa. Once you do this, an ACC team is forced into the regional in the 4 line, which is Duke. This forces Miami to the west regional. That's right, even though Miami is higher than Duke in the rankings, they get shipped all the way across the country while Duke stays relatively close to home, just because of Oregon's presence. And once that happens, Iowa St is locked into the West regional, which locks West Virginia into the East regional. And because WVU has to go East, Maryland gets kicked out of its preferred East regional, which kicks Purdue out of the South regional they prefer. All of this is a nasty chain reaction that starts because Oregon got displaced because the Big East has two 1 seeds.
4) Another nasty side effect is that you can't adjust this bracket for balance. Since everyone is forced into a specific spot, you can't adjust for imbalanced regionals. Well, guess what happens:
- The West regional has the worst 1, 2, and 3 seeds, and the second worst 4 seed
- The Midwest regional has the second best 1 seed...and the best 2, 3, and 4 seeds
This is incredible imbalance, but there is no way to fix this without violating another rule.
5) There is exactly one fix: a procedural bump of Xavier to the 2 line and Iowa to the 1 line. That would be unprecedented, but this might be the one unique scenario where the committee might sell its soul to the devil.
6) Well, there might be a second fix: Oklahoma in the West regional.
The final regionals I came up with:
SOUTH 32
Kansas
UNC
Maryland
Dayton
WEST 39
Xavier
MSU
Miami
Iowa St
EAST 36
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Purdue
MIDWEST 29
Oklahoma
Iowa
Oregon
Duke
2/15 S-CURVE
AQ shenanigans:
SEC: LSU to the lead!
The 1 line: Kansas (20-4), Oklahoma (20-4), Villanova (22-3), Xavier (22-3)
The 2 line: Iowa (20-5), Virginia (20-5), North Carolina (21-4), Michigan St (21-5)
The 3 line: Oregon (19-6), Maryland (21-4), West Virginia (20-5), Miami (20-4)
The 4 line: Duke (19-6), Dayton (21-3), Iowa St (18-7), Purdue (20-6)
The 5 line: Kentucky (19-6), Arizona (21-5), USC (18-7), Notre Dame (18-7)
The 6 line: Texas (16-9), Indiana (20-6), Baylor (17-7), Texas A&M (18-7)
The 7 line: California (17-8), South Carolina (20-4), Utah (18-7), Colorado (18-7)
The 8 line: Pittsburgh (16-7), Syracuse (18-8), Providence (19-7), Michigan (18-7)
The 9 line: Seton Hall (17-7), Monmouth (21-5), St Joseph's (21-4), Wisconsin (16-9)
The 10 line: Wichita St (17-7), Florida (16-9), Butler (17-8), Temple (16-8)
The 11 line: UConn (18-7), Gonzaga (19-6), LSU (16-9), Cincinnati (19-7), St Bonaventure (17-6)
The 12 line: Valparaiso (19-5), VCU (18-7), Florida St (16-9), San Diego St (17-7), Chattanooga (21-4)
The 13 line: Akron (19-5), Arkansas-Litle Rock (20-3), South Dakota St (18-6), UNC-Wilmington (18-5)
The 14 line: Yale (16-5), Stony Brook (20-4), Hawaii (18-3), UAB (20-5)
The 15 line: Tennessee Tech (16-8), New Mexico St (16-8), Stephen F Austin (14-5), Montana (13-8)
The 16 line: UNC-Asheville (15-9), North Florida (15-10), Bucknell (12-12), Hampton (13-9), Fairleigh Dickinson (12-12), Texas Southern (11-12)
Next 4 in:
Wisconsin
Wichita St***
Florida
Butler
Temple***
UConn
Gonzaga***
LSU***
Last 4 in:
Cincinnati
St Bonaventure
Valparaiso***
VCU
Florida St
Last 4 out:
Oregon St (14-9)
Alabama (15-9)
George Washington (18-7)
Washington (15-10)
Next 4 out:
Texas Tech (15-9)
Clemson (15-10)
St Mary's (19-4)
San Diego St***
Tulsa (16-9)
The consideration board:
Chattanooga***
Vanderbilt (15-10)
UCLA (14-11)
Creighton (17-9)
Akron***
Georgia (14-9)
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Ohio St (16-10)
Kansas St (14-11)
BYU (18-8)
Arizona St (14-12)
SEC: LSU to the lead!
The 1 line: Kansas (20-4), Oklahoma (20-4), Villanova (22-3), Xavier (22-3)
The 2 line: Iowa (20-5), Virginia (20-5), North Carolina (21-4), Michigan St (21-5)
The 3 line: Oregon (19-6), Maryland (21-4), West Virginia (20-5), Miami (20-4)
The 4 line: Duke (19-6), Dayton (21-3), Iowa St (18-7), Purdue (20-6)
The 5 line: Kentucky (19-6), Arizona (21-5), USC (18-7), Notre Dame (18-7)
The 6 line: Texas (16-9), Indiana (20-6), Baylor (17-7), Texas A&M (18-7)
The 7 line: California (17-8), South Carolina (20-4), Utah (18-7), Colorado (18-7)
The 8 line: Pittsburgh (16-7), Syracuse (18-8), Providence (19-7), Michigan (18-7)
The 9 line: Seton Hall (17-7), Monmouth (21-5), St Joseph's (21-4), Wisconsin (16-9)
The 10 line: Wichita St (17-7), Florida (16-9), Butler (17-8), Temple (16-8)
The 11 line: UConn (18-7), Gonzaga (19-6), LSU (16-9), Cincinnati (19-7), St Bonaventure (17-6)
The 12 line: Valparaiso (19-5), VCU (18-7), Florida St (16-9), San Diego St (17-7), Chattanooga (21-4)
The 13 line: Akron (19-5), Arkansas-Litle Rock (20-3), South Dakota St (18-6), UNC-Wilmington (18-5)
The 14 line: Yale (16-5), Stony Brook (20-4), Hawaii (18-3), UAB (20-5)
The 15 line: Tennessee Tech (16-8), New Mexico St (16-8), Stephen F Austin (14-5), Montana (13-8)
The 16 line: UNC-Asheville (15-9), North Florida (15-10), Bucknell (12-12), Hampton (13-9), Fairleigh Dickinson (12-12), Texas Southern (11-12)
Next 4 in:
Wisconsin
Wichita St***
Florida
Butler
Temple***
UConn
Gonzaga***
LSU***
Last 4 in:
Cincinnati
St Bonaventure
Valparaiso***
VCU
Florida St
Last 4 out:
Oregon St (14-9)
Alabama (15-9)
George Washington (18-7)
Washington (15-10)
Next 4 out:
Texas Tech (15-9)
Clemson (15-10)
St Mary's (19-4)
San Diego St***
Tulsa (16-9)
The consideration board:
Chattanooga***
Vanderbilt (15-10)
UCLA (14-11)
Creighton (17-9)
Akron***
Georgia (14-9)
Arkansas-Little Rock***
Ohio St (16-10)
Kansas St (14-11)
BYU (18-8)
Arizona St (14-12)
Sunday, February 14, 2016
2/14 recap
B1G:
@Iowa 75, Minnesota 71
@Michigan St 88, Indiana 69 - status quo, etc etc
ACC:
@North Carolina 85, Pittsburgh 64 - status quo, etc etc
Miami 67, @Florida St 65 - a golden chance for a win of significance by the boards for FSU, they're in more trouble than most think
Syracuse 75, @Boston College 61
Pac-12:
@Arizona 86, USC 78 - big for Arizona's seed line. Been waiting for some substance to the profile
@Utah 88, Washington St 47
UCLA 78, @Arizona St 65 - a beyond critical road win for UCLA
AAC:
@Temple 77, South Florida 65
NITWatch:
Duquesne lost at home to UMass and practically disqualified themselves...Illinois St and Evansville win in the MVC, what a mess that conference is
@Iowa 75, Minnesota 71
@Michigan St 88, Indiana 69 - status quo, etc etc
ACC:
@North Carolina 85, Pittsburgh 64 - status quo, etc etc
Miami 67, @Florida St 65 - a golden chance for a win of significance by the boards for FSU, they're in more trouble than most think
Syracuse 75, @Boston College 61
Pac-12:
@Arizona 86, USC 78 - big for Arizona's seed line. Been waiting for some substance to the profile
@Utah 88, Washington St 47
UCLA 78, @Arizona St 65 - a beyond critical road win for UCLA
AAC:
@Temple 77, South Florida 65
NITWatch:
Duquesne lost at home to UMass and practically disqualified themselves...Illinois St and Evansville win in the MVC, what a mess that conference is
2/13 recap
non-con:
@SMU 69, Gonzaga 60 - this won't hurt Gonzaga, but it won't help, and they needed a bit of help
A-10:
@St Bonaventure 64, George Washington 57 - Bonaventure is legitimately in this bubble discussion now, and I think GW has just about absorbed all the damage it can afford to
@VCU 85, St Louis 52
@St Joseph's 88, LaSalle 62
NITWatch: Davidson lost at Mason and is in trouble here...Richmond over Fordham
ACC:
@Duke 63, Virginia 62 - a signature win and Duke can worry about working their way back to the 3 or 4 line. Raleigh might be a lost cause unless they can sweep UNC, though. Virginia? Crushing to their hopes at the one line
@Notre Dame 71, Louisville 66 - Notre Dame. Lockbox.
@Clemson 66, Georgia Tech 52
NITWatch: NC State keeping their slim hopes, a win over Wake
AAC:
@Cincinnati 75, East Carolina 60
@UConn 75, Tulsa 73 - tough ask for Tulsa, but given their situation, they needed to deliver on a tough ask to have a chance
NITWatch: Houston wins, Memphis loses and is about done here
Big 12:
Kansas 76, @Oklahoma 72 - the top line probably goes Kansas/Oklahoma/Villanova now. I just can't ignore head-to-head when I think these are the top 3 resume teams in the country
@West Virginia 73, TCU 42
@Iowa St 85, Texas 75 - actually really important for ISU, who was starting to test the waters to see how many losses you can absorb before being a 4 seed. No harm to Texas
Texas Tech 84, @Baylor 66 - a signature road win? Okay, we begin taking TTU seriously around here. As for Baylor, they are a clear 6th in the conference pecking order now
@Oklahoma St 58, Kansas St 55 (OT) - anyone who has K-State in a bracket now is a fraud
Big East:
@Villanova 73, St John's 63
Xavier 74, @Butler 57 - no harm to Butler, but I'd recommend getting one of these sooner or later
@Providence 75, Georgetown 72 - actually very important for Providence to stabilize, and GU is done here
Creighton 65, @Marquette 62 - Creighton: still relevant!
B1G:
Wisconsin 70, @Maryland 57 - see, Maryland, this is why you're a 2/3 seed. And 3 might be generous, but the teams on the 4 line aren't good enough to move up yet
@Michigan 61, Purdue 56 - Michigan should be fine
Ohio St 79, @Rutgers 69 - not dead yet...
NITWatch: Nebraska and Northwestern win
CUSA:
Just in case you were thinking about getting fancy with your projections, UAB lost at LaTech. Not relevant to the bubble this year
CAA:
William&Mary lost again, at Towson. That was a silly week of everyone thinking there was outside hope. UNC-Wilmington still leads everyone by 2 games
Horizon:
Wright St 61, @Valparaiso 59 - nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
MAC:
@Northern Illinois 80, Akron 79 - just as quickly as I give Akron hope, they go and do this
MVC:
Northern Iowa 53, @Wichita St 50 - wait, what? I'm not even sure how to analyze Wichita's resume. They're back in range of the bubble now
NITWatch: Southern Illinois is somehow 20-7 without doing anything relevant
MW:
@San Diego St 80, Air Force 61
NITWatch: Boise, New Mexico win...Nevada beats Fresno. These are your four teams in contention for maybe 1 at-large NIT spot
Pac-12:
@Stanford 76, Oregon 72 - just when I was ready to put Oregon on the 1 line, they get swept on the NorCal trip. Sigh. Stanford still not relevant yet
@Colorado 81, Washington 80 - Colorado approaching the lockbox, Washington probably on the wrong side of the bubble
@California 83, Oregon St 71 - big ask for OSU to get this, but they're still in trouble. Cal probably in the lockbox now. A clear set of tiers have emerged in the conference. Oregon///USC///Arizona and Cal and Utah and Colorado///Washington and Oregon St and UCLA on the bubble
SEC:
@LSU 76, Texas A&M 71 - A&M doing severe damage to their seed line. LSU? Legitimately on the bubble for the first time all year
Kentucky 89, @South Carolina 62 - the good news for USC is they did some earlier work that legitimized their place in the tourney field. This won't hurt too badly. And a boon for Kentucky's seed
Alabama 61, @Florida 55 - Alabama: not dead! Florida: in legitimate trouble
Vanderbilt 86, @Auburn 57
Georgia 66, @Mississippi St 57
NITWatch: Ole Miss wins, Tennessee loses
SoCon:
Chattanooga 76, @East Tennessee St 68 - actually a good road win but the damage is done
Summit:
@South Dakota St 85, South Dakota 68 - they still share the league lead with IPFW
Sun Belt:
Arkansas-Little Rock 68, @Louisiana-Lafayette 64 - actually a good road win but the damage is done
WCC:
BYU 96, @Santa Clara 62
@St Mary's 68, Loyola Marymount 62
@SMU 69, Gonzaga 60 - this won't hurt Gonzaga, but it won't help, and they needed a bit of help
A-10:
@St Bonaventure 64, George Washington 57 - Bonaventure is legitimately in this bubble discussion now, and I think GW has just about absorbed all the damage it can afford to
@VCU 85, St Louis 52
@St Joseph's 88, LaSalle 62
NITWatch: Davidson lost at Mason and is in trouble here...Richmond over Fordham
ACC:
@Duke 63, Virginia 62 - a signature win and Duke can worry about working their way back to the 3 or 4 line. Raleigh might be a lost cause unless they can sweep UNC, though. Virginia? Crushing to their hopes at the one line
@Notre Dame 71, Louisville 66 - Notre Dame. Lockbox.
@Clemson 66, Georgia Tech 52
NITWatch: NC State keeping their slim hopes, a win over Wake
AAC:
@Cincinnati 75, East Carolina 60
@UConn 75, Tulsa 73 - tough ask for Tulsa, but given their situation, they needed to deliver on a tough ask to have a chance
NITWatch: Houston wins, Memphis loses and is about done here
Big 12:
Kansas 76, @Oklahoma 72 - the top line probably goes Kansas/Oklahoma/Villanova now. I just can't ignore head-to-head when I think these are the top 3 resume teams in the country
@West Virginia 73, TCU 42
@Iowa St 85, Texas 75 - actually really important for ISU, who was starting to test the waters to see how many losses you can absorb before being a 4 seed. No harm to Texas
Texas Tech 84, @Baylor 66 - a signature road win? Okay, we begin taking TTU seriously around here. As for Baylor, they are a clear 6th in the conference pecking order now
@Oklahoma St 58, Kansas St 55 (OT) - anyone who has K-State in a bracket now is a fraud
Big East:
@Villanova 73, St John's 63
Xavier 74, @Butler 57 - no harm to Butler, but I'd recommend getting one of these sooner or later
@Providence 75, Georgetown 72 - actually very important for Providence to stabilize, and GU is done here
Creighton 65, @Marquette 62 - Creighton: still relevant!
B1G:
Wisconsin 70, @Maryland 57 - see, Maryland, this is why you're a 2/3 seed. And 3 might be generous, but the teams on the 4 line aren't good enough to move up yet
@Michigan 61, Purdue 56 - Michigan should be fine
Ohio St 79, @Rutgers 69 - not dead yet...
NITWatch: Nebraska and Northwestern win
CUSA:
Just in case you were thinking about getting fancy with your projections, UAB lost at LaTech. Not relevant to the bubble this year
CAA:
William&Mary lost again, at Towson. That was a silly week of everyone thinking there was outside hope. UNC-Wilmington still leads everyone by 2 games
Horizon:
Wright St 61, @Valparaiso 59 - nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
MAC:
@Northern Illinois 80, Akron 79 - just as quickly as I give Akron hope, they go and do this
MVC:
Northern Iowa 53, @Wichita St 50 - wait, what? I'm not even sure how to analyze Wichita's resume. They're back in range of the bubble now
NITWatch: Southern Illinois is somehow 20-7 without doing anything relevant
MW:
@San Diego St 80, Air Force 61
NITWatch: Boise, New Mexico win...Nevada beats Fresno. These are your four teams in contention for maybe 1 at-large NIT spot
Pac-12:
@Stanford 76, Oregon 72 - just when I was ready to put Oregon on the 1 line, they get swept on the NorCal trip. Sigh. Stanford still not relevant yet
@Colorado 81, Washington 80 - Colorado approaching the lockbox, Washington probably on the wrong side of the bubble
@California 83, Oregon St 71 - big ask for OSU to get this, but they're still in trouble. Cal probably in the lockbox now. A clear set of tiers have emerged in the conference. Oregon///USC///Arizona and Cal and Utah and Colorado///Washington and Oregon St and UCLA on the bubble
SEC:
@LSU 76, Texas A&M 71 - A&M doing severe damage to their seed line. LSU? Legitimately on the bubble for the first time all year
Kentucky 89, @South Carolina 62 - the good news for USC is they did some earlier work that legitimized their place in the tourney field. This won't hurt too badly. And a boon for Kentucky's seed
Alabama 61, @Florida 55 - Alabama: not dead! Florida: in legitimate trouble
Vanderbilt 86, @Auburn 57
Georgia 66, @Mississippi St 57
NITWatch: Ole Miss wins, Tennessee loses
SoCon:
Chattanooga 76, @East Tennessee St 68 - actually a good road win but the damage is done
Summit:
@South Dakota St 85, South Dakota 68 - they still share the league lead with IPFW
Sun Belt:
Arkansas-Little Rock 68, @Louisiana-Lafayette 64 - actually a good road win but the damage is done
WCC:
BYU 96, @Santa Clara 62
@St Mary's 68, Loyola Marymount 62
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