Sunday, March 1, 2020

Bubble watch: B1G


Maryland (23-6) (13-5) NET 15 SoS 39
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 71, avg win 107
7-6 vs. Q1, 6-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @MSU, N-Marquette, @Illinois is Q1-A?
Bad losses:  all are Q1-A

Their record within Q1-A is 3-6.  That probably means the 1 line is out of play, but it's tough to imagine a B1G champ this year not on at least the 2 line.  Probably a couple wins away from locking that up.

Michigan St (20-9) (12-6) NET 7 SoS 42
Vital signs:  9-6 R/N, non-con SoS 60, avg win 115
7-8 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SHU, @Maryland, @Illinois is Q1-A?
Bad losses:  N-Va Tech

Pretty standard good resume.  Beating just about everyone at home, losing a majority of the toughest road games in conference.  4 line?  5 line?  Either is reasonable.

Iowa (20-9) (11-7) NET 29 SoS 80
Vital signs:  6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 215, avg win 109
8-7 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Maryland, N-TTU, Ohio St
Bad losses:  DePaul, @Nebraska

The schedule means they'll be a half-step behind the top of the conference.

Penn St (21-8) (11-7) NET 26 SoS 330
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 330, avg win 120
7-6 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @MSU, Maryland, @Michigan
Bad losses:  N-Ole Miss

That schedule might very well cost PSU a seed line.  Be warned.  All their other metrics are more or less in line with other 5 and 6 seeds, but that SoS number.  Yikes

Michigan (18-10) (9-8) NET 24 SoS 54
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 137, avg win 119
7-9 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  MSU, N-Gonzaga, Creighton
Bad losses:  none, really

They might have an uncomfortable number of losses for a 6 or 7 seed, but it feels like they're tracking in that direction.

Wisconsin (18-10) (11-6) NET 27 SoS 19
Vital signs:  5-9 R/N, non-con SoS 37, avg win 106
8-8 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  MSU, Maryland, @OSU and UM
Bad losses:  N-New Mexico

5-4 vs. Q1-A.  So they can easily survive a bunch more losses.  Quality wins up and down the board, good SoS numbers.  Will be seeded higher than people think, IMO.

Ohio St (19-9) (9-8) NET 17 SoS 67
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 101, avg win 134
5-8 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kentucky, Maryland, Nova
Bad losses:  I suppose Minnesota at home

I suppose it's possible they lose 4 in a row, but let's go ahead and lock them up anyways.  The average win number is pretty darn low for a B1G team this year, given the conference strength.  So the seed might take a hit there.


Illinois (18-9) (11-6) NET 36 SoS 94
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 252, avg win 139
5-7 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Michigan, @PSU, @Wisky
Bad losses:  Miami, N-Mizzou

Holding back on a lock, as the SoS numbers are not great and the average win mark is down.  However, 6-5 in road games, with a few quality road wins in there, is an encouraging sign for candidacy.

Rutgers (17-11) (9-9) NET 35 SoS 43
Vital signs:  1-10 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 136
3-9 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Seton Hall, PSU, Wisky
Bad losses:  N-St Bonaventure, @Pitt

1-8 true road record.  That's a major problem.  Sure, many of those are Q1-A games....but you gotta win one of them.  Just one.  Their one road win is Nebraska.  Their SoS numbers and Seton Hall win is more likely to save them than not, but this is gonna be close.

Indiana (18-10) (8-9) NET 55 SoS 53
Vital signs:  4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 78, avg win 125
6-8 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  FSU, MSU, PSU
Bad losses:  Arkansas at home probably

Only 2 true road wins is a problem, but at least 1 is a half-decent Minny team.  Basically, they win their home games (with a couple bad exceptions), and they lose their road games (with a couple expected exceptions.  The SoS numbers are good enough, the NET number isn't, but it isn't clear that number actually matters.  I'd suggest a couple more wins to get home free.

Purdue (15-14) (8-10) NET 34 SoS 48
Vital signs:  4-10 R/N, non-con SoS 83, avg win 127
4-11 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  MSU, Wisky, Iowa
Bad losses:  @Nebraska, Texas at home?

At some point, you just absorb too many losses.  If they can't beat Iowa on the road, they'll end up with 16 losses if they're in the at-large pool.  That's just probably too many.  If they had a road win better than Indiana, I'd be more optimistic.

NIT watch:
Minnesota (13-14) (7-10) NET 49 SoS 40 - under .500, 2-8 true road record.  Probably safe to dismiss at this point.  Road games left at Wisky and Indiana, so I'm not sure they can actually make it.  All the other B1G bubble teams have a win over a top-4ish projected seed.  Minny does not.

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