Friday, March 6, 2020


I'm looking in between #16 (Ohio St) and #25 (Penn St ).  That's a gaggle of 10 teams that I can't quite figure out the order on.  You can put them in almost any order and I wouldn't argue.  On further review, I rose Wisky, and dropped Iowa and PSU (SoS issues), but they're all pretty tightly bunched.  I think the BTT will solve a lot of these problems.

A little bit of tinkering elsewhere.  The 8 and 9 lines feel weak to me, but teams should win their way into those lines this last week.

The 1 line:  Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line:  Dayton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Duke
The 3 line:  Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line:  Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line:  Colorado, Auburn, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 6 line:  Butler, Iowa, West Virginia, BYU
The 7 line:  Penn St, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line:  Illinois, St Mary's, Florida, Texas Tech
The 9 line:  Indiana, Houston, USC, LSU
The 10 line:  East Tennessee St, North Carolina St, Rutgers, Arizona St
The 11 line:  Providence, Oklahoma, Richmond, UCLA, Northern Iowa, Wichita St
The 12 line:  Liberty, Tulsa, Stephen F Austin, Yale
The 13 line:  Akron, North Texas, Vermont, New Mexico St
The 14 line:  Belmont, Hofstra, Bradley, Colgate
The 15 line:  UC-Irvine, Wright St, North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock
The 16 line:  Eastern Washington, Siena, Winthrop, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

Last 4 in:
Northern Iowa
Wichita St

Last 4 out:
Utah St

Next 4 out:
Rhode Island

Next 4 out:
South Carolina
Mississippi St
(this is my way of saying that even though no one in the SEC bubble is in, someone inevitably will make a run out of this pack)


HenryMuto said...

Ohio State is almost for sure going to lose at Michigan State. So Michigan State goes on a 2 game run and wins 2 huge road games and goes from a 9 loss 5/6 seed to a 3 seed in 2 games. Amazing how that works. All those losses don't even matter.

HenryMuto said...

Kentucky is screwed today at Florida only 7 scholarship players. Hagans and Cal get into a fight in the loss vs Tennessee and now Hagans is taking today off for "personal reasons". Cal don't want to throw him under the bus but this is a clear suspension. No way Hagans would just not play today then be back for the SEC tournament which is what it sounds like.

This team was cruising to a 2 seed and now falling apart.

HenryMuto said...

You have Xavier out right are insane.

101 brackets have been updated on bracket matrix.

100 people have Xavier in the field.

Either you are the smartest guy in the room or...........

If season ended today Xavier be in the field. If they lose at home vs Butler then lose in 1st round of Big East tournament we can talk otherwise wow.

HenryMuto said...

Northern Iowa over Xavier ? That 1 win at Colorado isn't getting them in over Xavier. I highly doubt Northern Iowa will make it certainly not over Xaiver.

Andrew said...

The computers are going to save MSU's seed.

The good news for Kentucky is I think their floor is 4 no matter what. There's a bit of a gap between them and the gaggle I mentioned. A couple of those teams may win a conference tourney and jump up, though.

One thing about Xavier - bad loss avoidance. That matters. But quality wins. Xavier has 2 over my tournament field: @SHU and home to Providence. They're 2-10 in such games. When you have that many chances, you need to cash in more than 1 signature win, IMO. They beat everyone they're supposed to, but it's more important to win big games (when you have as many opportunities as they've had).

I'd much rather grab a UCLA with a weirder resume but sweeps of Colorado and Arizona, or a mid-major who hasn't had the opportunities that Xavier had.

Now that I look at it, swapping out Wichita St for Xavier might make some sense.

HenryMuto said...

Holy mother of God. Kentucky down 18 in the 2nd half with no Hagans and Quickley fouling out with 9 mins left come back to shock Florida 71-70 as their shot at the buzzer bounces not once but twice and barely falls off the rim for the Kentucky win.

HenryMuto said...

Down goes Penn State at Northwestern

HenryMuto said...

Down goes Louisville at Virginia

HenryMuto said...

Duke will be the #4 seed in the ACC tournament......losers of 3 of their last 5 games before today.......only 5 quad 1 wins with 2 of them being non tourney teams in Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Some people still have them on the 2 line somehow.

HenryMuto said...

You still have Colorado on the 5 the top 5 seed.......yikes man

HenryMuto said...

Utah State in Northern Iowa out

Andrew said...

Gonna move Kentucky to #13 from #15 with that win. And then with Michigan St at 12 and a head-to-head result in hand, they go to #12.

Just so I explain myself so it doesn't look like I'm abandoning my UK takes when I move them back up a line.

All of a sudden the 5 line got competitive. We have all those B1G teams, and then Butler won on the road and WVU picked up a signature win. Colorado's loss wasn't that bad, but it's going to be worth 6 or 7 spots just because it seems like everyone else right behind them picked up resume enhancers.

Xavier might not actually lose ground tonight. Given the dump Texas took, that cancels out the Utah St bid poach. I don't see other teams behind them moving up.

I'm wondering about Big East seeds. I think SHU and Nova are 2-liners. And hilariously enough, Louisville's loss may cost Duke. Now that FSU doesn't have to share the regular season title, I think that helps them a bit in the committee room. Still not gonna pull the trigger yet, but I'm getting closer.