Friday, March 6, 2020


A couple conference leaders changes.  I can give the Pac-12 to Oregon for now, but Tulsa has to be assigned the AAC lead.  A couple changes in 1-bid land too.

I see people putting Dayton on the 1 line.  Not sure I'm quote there yet.  Dayton does have the SoS advantage.  Both losses are very reasonable and don't hurt the resume in the way SDSU's loss does.  In the end, Dayton's collection of wins:  N-St Mary's, @Richmond, swept URI, and plenty of wins over NIT teams.  SDSU has @BYU, N-Creighton, N-Iowa, and swept Utah St.  That's a better collection.  If Dayton could swap losses between Colorado and any other game on their sked, I think that'd be the difference.  SDSU has 3 Q1-A wins.  That's gotta hold for now.

I can be swayed though.

There's a bit of scrubbing elsewhere.

The 1 line:  Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line:  Dayton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Duke
The 3 line:  Maryland, Florida St, Creighton, Michigan St
The 4 line:  Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Ohio St
The 5 line:  Colorado, Auburn, Penn St, Iowa
The 6 line:  Wisconsin, Butler, West Virginia, Michigan
The 7 line:  BYU, Virginia, Arizona, Marquette
The 8 line:  Illinois, St Mary's, Florida, Texas Tech
The 9 line:  Indiana, Houston, East Tennessee St, USC
The 10 line:  LSU, North Carolina St, Rutgers, Arizona St
The 11 line:  Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Providence, UCLA, Wichita St
The 12 line:  Richmond, Texas, Tulsa, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line:  Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line:  Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line:  Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line:  Eastern Washington, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

Last 6 in:
Wichita St

Last 6 out:
Utah St
Rhode Island

Obviously things will change, but right now I feel like this is the group of 12 playing 6 spots on the bubble that belong in a cluster.


DC said...

Is putting FSU as a 3 seed more of a prediction of how they will fare in the ACC tournament or where they currently sit? Barring a collapse against BC tomorrow FSU will be the ACC regular season champs and #1 seed in ACC tournament. I believe I saw a stat that showed the #1 seed in the ACC tournament has never been seeded less than #2 in the NCAA tournament's history.

Bryan Wilson said...

Can you explain why you have Texas Tech so high? Is it just the good NET? They seem to me like a classic case of good-losing their way in right now, which you often say is not good enough. I have Texas Tech pretty close to the cut line myself. Especially if you're looking forward and imagining a loss to Kansas.

Also not quite on board with ETSU yet. They did get that win @LSU but that doesn't look nearly as good as it did a month ago. LSU is not a very good team. They handed out wins like candy in the non-con. It's kind of funny how many teams have vs. LSU as a profile booster. Honestly, I don't see how anyone can make the case that they are higher than Northern Iowa, their team sheets are very similar but @Colorado is just better. And Northern Iowa has the better NET. MVC is a slightly better conference than SC. etc, etc

Jacob said...

Dude you loose all credibility putting FSU at 3 seed. I'm sorry, but there is NO METRICS that support it

Andrew said...

I think FSU over Duke is a reasonable take. Duke has the best win among the two, a better non con SoS. So I kept them on the 2 line. I'm still not sure how they'll value a conference championship. And Duke has the higher NET which I'm predicting will matter for tight cases.

I think FSU is very close to the 2 line, I don't think it's a slam dunk case.

Andrew said...

Texas Tech is seeded that high because of NET, yes. Remwmber the committee process - they have two steps. One for team selection and one for seeding. I bet they will be like the 44th team selected, but the 38th ranked team.

Bryan said...

In Andrew's defense, although having FSU at 3 seed is probably unpopular at this moment, it is defensible. NET has them at #11 which is 3 seed-ish. Some of the predictives have them pretty low, ex. Kenpom #17 currently. They don't have a huge number of wins over tournament teams - I count 5 sure tourney team victories. I have watched FSU recently and not been super impressed. Barely beat ND and Syracuse at home.

Andrew said...

I am admittedly very high on ETSU, and that 9 might be out of place. Them up there is mostly because of all the losses around them. I might change that seed.

Carey said...

The bracket looks pretty good, but I would make the following changes:
- ETSU is an 11 seed at best...simply based on their resume. We all cheer for the the little guy, but their resume is practically empty.
- Texas Tech is a good/dangerous team, but they are not an 8-seed if you look at their resume. They are closer to the 10/11 line based on accomplishments.
- I would move Providence and Oklahoma up to the 10 line and move NC State and Arizona State down to the 11 line.

You do a good job and I enjoy your daily comments.