Sunday, March 1, 2020

Bubble watch: Pac-12


Oregon (22-7) (11-5) NET 18 SoS 6
Vital signs:  7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 17, avg win 94
7-5 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  swept Zona, N-SHU, @Michigan
Bad losses:  N-UNC, @Wazzu

I can be talked into any line between 2 and 5.

Colorado (21-8) (10-6) NET 20 SoS 12
Vital signs:  8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 32, avg win 109
7-4 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, Oregon, @USC
Bad losses: @Cal, UCLA and OSU at home?

A good solid resume with a couple home losses too many to be a 3 seed or greater.  I can be talked into the 4 line here.


Arizona (19-10) (9-7) NET 11 SoS 5
Vital signs:  7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 18, avg win 120
3-8 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Colorado...@Stanford?  @Washington?  USC?
Bad losses:  UCLA at home I suppose

I can't believe a team with a NET this good isn't a lock yet.  But I mean...what's their 2nd best win?  After the Colorado win, their only wins over tourney teams might be home wins over USC/ASU/New Mexico St/South Dakota St.  It's not an impressive group of quality wins.  However, with so many of their other metrics in order, I can't imagine them missing.  But they have the Washington schools at home, which means they're 2 dumb losses away from real trouble.

Arizona St (19-10) (10-6) NET 50 SoS 11
Vital signs:  7-8 R/N, non-con SoS 56, avg win 117
5-8 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Zona, @Stanford, Oregon
Bad losses:  @Wazzu is the only dumb one

Your stock bubble resume.  A decent collection of quality wins, but behind the backdrop of a lot of opportunities that make you wonder if they lost 1 or 2 too many.  I'm coming around to being ok with them in the field.

USC (21-9) (10-7) NET 39 SoS 58
Vital signs:  8-7 R/N, non-con SoS 152, avg win 132
5-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Zona, N-LSU, @UCLA
Bad losses:  Temple, @Utah?

Another stock bubble resume.  Throw them in the bucket with ASU.

UCLA (18-11) (12-5) NET 75 SoS 56
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 209, avg win 117
6-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  swept Arizona and Colorado (!)
Bad losses:  Cal St-Fullerton, Hofstra, @Wazzu

They lead the Pac-12.  What a time to be alive.  Non-con SoS is a problem, as is non-con performance (they went 6-6 with no Q1 or Q2 wins).  Swept two quality teams, but after that and a home win over ASU, no other wins over tourney teams.  I just can't imagine this team in right now.

Stanford (19-9) (8-7) NET 30 SoS 103
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 213, avg win 156
4-5 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Oregon, N-Oklahoma, @UCLA?
Bad losses:  @Cal, OSU

The ultimate test of NET.  SoS numbers are poor.  A couple good wins, a couple bad losses, an otherwise unremarkable resume.  But the NET is shiny.  Who knows what they'll do.

NIT watch:
Utah (15-14) (6-11) NET 87 SoS 40 - beat BYU and Kentucky so they have a chance here.
Oregon St (15-13) (5-11) NET 72 SoS 106 - probably not, but 4 Q1 wins are worth noting.

1 comment:

ILLSC said...

Arizona has a pretty impressive win you glossed over, they beat the ever living shit out of illinois, who is a pretty solid tourney team