Sunday, March 1, 2020

Bubble watch: Big 12


Kansas (25-3) (15-1) NET 1 SoS 1
Vital signs:  11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 1, avg win 74
11-3 vs. Q1, 8-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, @Baylor, Colorado, swept WVU, etc etc
Bad losses:  none

The news isn't that they're #1 overall, it's that I believe they can spend multiple losses and still be #1 overall.

Baylor (25-3) (14-2) NET 5 SoS 74
Vital signs:  12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 193, avg win 108
10-1 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Kansas, N-Nova, Zone, @TTU, etc etc
Bad losses:  @TCU, N-Washington

Can a 1 seed have those 2 bad losses on the docket?  We're about to find out, because the rest of the resume is sterling.

West Virginia (19-10) (7-9) NET 21 SoS 2
Vital signs:  6-8 R/N, non-con SoS 4, avg win 94
5-7 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Ohio St, TTU, N-UNI
Bad losses:  @Kansas St, @TCU

They're safe from the bubble because of that SoS and enough significant non-con results.  But they are bleeding a lot of seed lines right now.


Texas Tech (18-11) (9-7) NET 23 SoS 88
Vital signs:  5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 175, avg win 159
3-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Louisville, WVU, @Texas?
Bad losses:  @TCU

Some troubling marks in the SoS and average win mark mean no lockbox yet, despite the shiny NET.  Potential alarming situation:  their last 2 games are Baylor and Kansas.  If they slide to 18-14, there's gonna be some worrying.

Oklahoma (18-11) (8-8) NET 42 SoS 32
Vital signs:  6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 59, avg win 107
5-9 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  swept WVU, TTU, @Texas?
Bad losses:  @K-State, @IaSt

3-8 in true road games is disconcerting.  But they have a decent chunk of quality wins (or at least enough of them) to probably miss the tourney at this point.  They have 2 games they really should win this week.  I highly suggest winning both to avoid drama.

Texas (18-11) (8-8) NET 58 SoS 39
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 112, avg win 133
4-7 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Purdue, @TTU, WVU
Bad losses:  @IaSt and N-G'town are the worst

I'm not sure there's enough here, but it's not an unreasonable resume.  Decent numbers everywhere, a couple good honest wins, no horrifying losses.  Worse resumes have gone farther.

NIT watch:
TCU (15-13) (7-9) NET 92 SoS 62
Oklahoma St (15-14) (5-11) NET 68 SoS 25 - both teams seems like classic NIT bubble teams to me.

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