Sunday, March 1, 2020

Bubble watch: the rest

East Tennessee St (24-4) (16-2) NET 41 SoS 131
Vital signs:  11-3 R/N, non-con SoS 80, avg win 203
1-2 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @LSU, @UNCG, Furman?
Bad losses:  Mercer

Put this team in the tournament, jerks.

Liberty (25-4) (13-3) NET 64 SoS 319
Vital signs:  13-4 R/N, non-con SoS 223, avg win 259
0-1 vs. Q1, 1-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Akron
Bad losses:  @Lipscomb, @Stetson are Q4

A courtesy listing, given their record.  That SoS is a non-starter.  No true quality wins.

Stephen F Austin (23-3) (17-1) NET 79 SoS 339
Vital signs:  11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 189, avg win 272
1-2 vs. Q1, 0-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Duke
Bad losses:  TAMU-CC

See Liberty....but instead they binked a roadie at Duke.  Makes all the difference.  It's still a big ask.  They played 21 Q4 games.  2 Q3 games.  Oof.  The SoS is just too terrible.  If they had a second win to point do beyond Duke, I'd love their chances.  It wouldn't even have to be a Q1 win, just a Q2 win or game.  They did lose at Rutgers and Bama.  Needed a couple more chances.

NIT watch:
Akron (20-7) (12-4) NET 76 SoS 95 - if they lose the regular season to Bowling Green in the MAC, they'll be in range of the NIT.  But with no Q1/2 wins, they're not viable.
Furman (22-6) (15-3) NET 65 SoS 155 - a couple Q2 wins in conference play, but a very plain non-con makes the case a bit dicey.  True borderline case for the NIT
UNC Greensboro (21-8) (13-5) NET 78 SoS 127 - they have road wins at Georgetown and Vermont to add some spice to this resume, and did win at Furman...but dropped a couple more road games in conference play.  This is a case where I could see them leapfrog Furman for a NIT at-large bid.  Frankly, they should both be in though.
Yale (20-6) (10-2) NET 62 SoS 237 - if they lose the Ivy regular season to Harvard, there's an outside case here.  Win at Clemson is gaining steam, but it's about all they have on the resume.

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