Sunday, March 1, 2020


Scrub a dub dub

The 1 line:  Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St
The 2 line:  Dayton, Seton Hall, Maryland, Duke
The 3 line:  Florida St, Villanova, Creighton, Kentucky
The 4 line:  Louisville, Michigan St, Oregon, Auburn
The 5 line:  Penn St, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio St
The 6 line:  Butler, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan
The 7 line:  BYU, Virginia, Marquette, Arizona
The 8 line:  Illinois, Houston, LSU, St Mary's
The 9 line:  Texas Tech, Florida, Indiana, Arizona St
The 10 line:  Oklahoma, East Tennessee St, USC, North Carolina St
The 11 line:  Northern Iowa, Richmond, Wichita St, UCLA
The 12 line:  Rutgers, Stanford, Xavier, Providence, Liberty, Stephen F Austin
The 13 line:  Yale, Akron, North Texas, Vermont
The 14 line:  Hofstra, New Mexico St, Belmont, UC-Irvine
The 15 line:  Colgate, Arkansas-Little Rock, Wright St, North Dakota St
The 16 line:  Montana, Siena, Radford, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

Next 4 in:
*East Tennessee St
North Carolina St
*Northern Iowa
Wichita St

Last 4 in:

Last 4 out:
Rhode Island
Utah St

Next 4 out:
Mississippi St

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 7
Pac-12 7
Big 12 5
A-10 2


ILLSC said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ILLSC said...

Is purdue a simple case of get to 19-15 and in, fall short and youre out?

Bryan Wilson said...

Hypothetical question: Suppose Liberty had squeaked out a win over LSU back in December. Are they currently in at 28-3 instead of 27-4? Or is that still not enough?

Same question, but suppose Stephen F Austin doesn't lose to A&M CC in January, and they are at 26-2. Are they in?

One more: Northern Iowa has played 2 Q1 games and 6 Q2 games, and the rest are in Q3 and Q4. Supposing we have to dish out 5 losses, what is the best case scenario for the 5 games to lose to get them in? How should we distribute the losses to maximize their chances of getting in? Or does it really matter?

ILLSC said...

@Bryan I am pretty sure they have the best distribution a couple of conference road losses that are q3 (which are forgivable, there worse loss is ill state, that's my alma matter, its a hard place to go into and win so its a forgivable loss)a couple q2s but they have a 4-2 q2 record and one q1 to balance with their one win. The more I look at their resume, the more sure I am that they are going to get in so long as they don't take a q4 L in St Louis

Andrew said...

If Liberty beats LSU I think they're in. There's still obvious issues, but they have a legitimate win over a legitimate tourney team...the one thing they're clearly missing.

SFA....that'd be a closer call. Again, I think the more important thing is quality wins, given they only lost 3 times. So I'm not sure TAMU-CC changes things enough, SFA needed another Q2 win or two.

UNI. I think it's important to establish you can beat quality teams, so I'd go 1-1 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, and pick two tolerable road losses in Q3, while making sure you have a quality road win mixed in on Q1 or Q2 for balance. So, actually, UNI's distribution was pretty good

Andrew said...

I like 19-15 for Purdue. That might be the magic number. So long as they help out their road/neutral numbers a bit, getting away from .500 is more important than quality wins right now. They have enough quality, they need quantity.