Sunday, March 8, 2020


- Kansas will be #1 overall for the next week, and I'm struggling to come up with scenarios where Baylor loses #2 overall.
- Gonzaga doesn't have the resume for the 1 line, really.  I would strongly suggest winning out (but it just may be a case of SDSU and Gonzaga swapping lines if it goes down).
- SDSU has the better resume.  I believe the committee selects Dayton today.  They have the backup of knowing SDSU in Los Angeles might be the better draw anyways.  The committee is human.  They're not supposed to consider that, but it'll be in the back of their mind.
- The 2-3-4 lines are a mess.  #6 (Nova) to #13 (Maryland) are very tightly packed, and expect the order to be closely aligned with Championship Week results.
- From the Committee is Human dept:  Outright conferencetitles shouldn't matter, but FSU picking off Louisville's half of the title might actually matter.
- Duke sticking as the last 2 for now.  Conviction is low they can hold it without winning the ACCT.  Have to imagine the 2 line will be filled up with Big East champ/ACC champ/B1G champ, if the right teams win.
- A really, really good team, with the resume for a 2 seed, will get stuck on the 4 line.  It was Maryland, barely over Kentucky, this time (UK bumped up an extra spot with a H2H result on MSU).
- The 5-7 lines are also very tightly packed.  I've been adjusting my BYU seed, do they drop with a loss to Gonzaga?  They might actually.  The lack of depth in their resume is an issue, especially surrounded by a bunch of B1G teams fattened up on Q1 games.  I think the eye test comes into play there.
- Two major adjustments in seed with Arizona and Texas Tech.  I've believed that NET might matter when it comes to seeding (but not selection).  I still think they might overseed teams based on NET, but it's to the point where the resume for both teams required a massive adjustment.
- Providence's seed makes me want to throw up, but it's what I think they'll do.
- I don't feel like dissecting the bubble too much right now.  It'll change.  It always does.  All that matters is if you're in the picture or not.  Right now, the picture is East Tennessee St through the last 8 out.  I feel relatively confident calling everyone above a lock (don't make me regret it, 9 line).
- I don't see a path forward for the following teams, but they might be able to make it close:  Oklahoma St, St John's, Oregon St, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Clemson, Tulsa, UConn, Rhode Island, St Louis.  We'll re-evaluate as we go along.

The 1 line:  Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
The 2 line:  San Diego St, Villanova, Florida St, Duke
The 3 line:  Creighton, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan St
The 4 line:  Maryland, Oregon, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5 line:  Butler, West Virginia, Ohio St, Auburn
The 6 line:  BYU, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa
The 7 line:  Penn St, Virginia, Illinois, Houston
The 8 line:  Providence, St Mary's, LSU, USC
The 9 line:  Arizona, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma
The 10 line:  East Tennessee St, Arizona St, Utah St, Rutgers
The 11 line:  Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond, North Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Stanford
The 12 line:  Cincinnati, Stephen F Austin, Yale, Vermont
The 13 line:  Liberty, Akron, New Mexico St, North Texas
The 14 line:  Belmont, Bradley, Colgate, Hofstra
The 15 line:  UC-Irvine, Wright St, Winthrop, Eastern Washington
The 16 line:  North Dakota St, Arkansas-Little Rock, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

Last 4 in:
North Carolina St
Northern Iowa

Last 4 out:
Wichita St

Next 4 out:
Mississippi St
*Stephen F Austin

Break it down!:
B1G 10
Big East 6
Pac-12 6
Big 12 5
A-10 2


HenryMuto said...

Duke still a 2 seed........with their 5 quad 1 wins..........

HenryMuto said...

Did you know Kentucky has 9 quad 1 wins ? Figured you must not know you keep putting them so low and they beat both Michigan State and Louisville but why would that matter right ?

Oh and Duke has only 5 quad 1 wins (IE 4 less than Kentucky)

HenryMuto said...

Did you know Seton Hall has 9 losses and Kentucky has 6 ? From your seed list I wasn't sure you knew.

Bryan Wilson said...

Hey, lay off of Andrew about the Kentucky business. It is just a weird profile and we are all trying our best with a situation that is a bit unprecedented. We really don't know what the committee will do.

You've only been quoting Kentucky's best attributes. As it stands today, Kentucky does not rate higher than #10 in any of the computer metrics, including #21 in the NET. I think rating them close to #10 overall is very generous and I am with Andrew that a #3 seed is most likely as of today. The Bracket Matrix has Kentucky as the best 4 seed. Only 6 out of 122 entries have them on the 2 line. We will see for real in about a week.

Andrew said...

Some Kentucky things to explain the rationale:

- The SoS is merely okay. Kentucky is trapped behind all the other contenders.
Kentucky 81
Michigan St 36
Maryland 43
Seton Hall 4
Villanova 3
Creighton 24
Louisville 19
Florida St 40
Duke 29
-Evansville is just one game, so I have to resist the urge to overvalue it, but no other team close to them has anything that approaches that loss.
-The SEC killed UK's profile this year by being down. The Big East/B1G teams are getting propped up by the depth of their conferences, and they've shot them past UK. No other elite SEC teams really hurt. The Big East teams in particular got to beat up on each other and prop each other up.