Seton Hall (21-7) (13-3) NET 13 SoS 16
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 62, avg win 98
10-5 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Maryland, @Nova, swept BU/MU
Bad losses: @Iowa St
Probably a loss or two too many for the 1 line, but I'm finding it harder and harder to find teams to bump SHU down to the 3 line.
Villanova (22-7) (11-5) NET 16 SoS 4
Vital signs: 10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 38, avg win 100
7-6 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Kansas, @Creighton, Butler
Bad losses: Providence at home?
They are 2-6 within Q1-A. This limits seed upside, but all the metrics are in great shape otherwise. Just feels like a 3 seed, can't quite make the argument for the 2 line at the moment. I think. I can be swayed on this though.
Creighton (21-6) (11-4) NET 8 SoS 24
Vital signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 129, avg win 100
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, @Nova, N-TTU
Bad losses: all inside Q1...@G'town?
Bad loss avoidance matters....signature road wins matter...they're in the middle of the 2 line discussion.
Butler (20-9) (8-8) NET 19 SoS 52
Vital signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 225, avg win 117
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, Nova, Marquette
Bad losses: G'town, @DePaul?
The non-con is more hurt by cupcakes, they at least beat Stanford and Purdue. So with that last concern off the board, I'll go ahead and lock them up.
Marquette (18-10) (8-8) NET 25 SoS 3
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 73, avg win 116
5-9 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Nova, Butler, @Xavier
Bad losses: swept by Provi?
They are 0-8 against Q1-A. That keeps them from the lockbox for now, just in case. But 5 Q1 wins should be enough to hold on. Just don't collapse.
Xavier (18-10) (7-8) NET 45 SoS 14
Vital signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 67, avg win 110
2-9 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins: @SHU, Cinci and Provi at home?
Bad losses: @Wake
Provi, Cincy, @St John's. Take your pick. One of those is Xavier's 2nd best win of the year. So many metrics are in favor of Xavier right now, but that's one potentially fatal flaw. A home game with Butler is in the hopper, and boy oh boy do they need that.
Providence (17-12) (10-6) NET 44 SoS 7
Vital signs: 6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 128, avg win 99
7-8 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, SHU, @Nova, @Butler, swept Marquette...
Bad losses: N-LBSU, N-Charleston, Penn, @Northwestern
Goodness gracious, this is a busy resume. Very strong SoS. 7 Q1 wins! 3 Q3 losses and a Q4 loss! The average win is below 100! But it's below 100 because they blew 4 cupcakes who would've dragged that average way down. I guess they have to go if they have that many signature wins (5 Q1-A wins!), but good god. This resume is drunk.
Georgetown (15-13) (5-10) NET 59 SoS 21
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 58, avg win 134
4-10 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins: Creighton, N-Texas, @Okla St?
Bad losses: technically UNCG is a Q3 loss, which is bullshit
A courtesy listing at this point, as they have games with Creighton and Nova in the hopper.
St John's (14-14) (3-12) NET 74 SoS 46 - beat Zona and WVU, so a reasonable chance at the NIT.