Sunday, March 1, 2020

Bubble watch: Big East


Seton Hall (21-7) (13-3) NET 13 SoS 16
Vital signs:  10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 62, avg win 98
10-5 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Maryland, @Nova, swept BU/MU
Bad losses:  @Iowa St

Probably a loss or two too many for the 1 line, but I'm finding it harder and harder to find teams to bump SHU down to the 3 line.

Villanova (22-7) (11-5) NET 16 SoS 4
Vital signs:  10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 38, avg win 100
7-6 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Kansas, @Creighton, Butler
Bad losses:  Providence at home?

They are 2-6 within Q1-A.  This limits seed upside, but all the metrics are in great shape otherwise.  Just feels like a 3 seed, can't quite make the argument for the 2 line at the moment.  I think.  I can be swayed on this though.

Creighton (21-6) (11-4) NET 8 SoS 24
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 129, avg win 100
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SHU, @Nova, N-TTU
Bad losses:  all inside Q1...@G'town?

Bad loss avoidance matters....signature road wins matter...they're in the middle of the 2 line discussion.

Butler (20-9) (8-8) NET 19 SoS 52
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 225, avg win 117
8-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 Q2
Signature wins:  Creighton, Nova, Marquette
Bad losses:  G'town, @DePaul?

The non-con is more hurt by cupcakes, they at least beat Stanford and Purdue.  So with that last concern off the board, I'll go ahead and lock them up.


Marquette (18-10) (8-8) NET 25 SoS 3
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 73, avg win 116
5-9 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Nova, Butler, @Xavier
Bad losses:  swept by Provi?

They are 0-8 against Q1-A.  That keeps them from the lockbox for now, just in case.  But 5 Q1 wins should be enough to hold on.  Just don't collapse.

Xavier (18-10) (7-8) NET 45 SoS 14
Vital signs:  6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 67, avg win 110
2-9 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @SHU, Cinci and Provi at home?
Bad losses:  @Wake

Provi, Cincy, @St John's.  Take your pick.  One of those is Xavier's 2nd best win of the year.  So many metrics are in favor of Xavier right now, but that's one potentially fatal flaw.  A home game with Butler is in the hopper, and boy oh boy do they need that.

Providence (17-12) (10-6) NET 44 SoS 7
Vital signs:  6-9 R/N, non-con SoS 128, avg win 99
7-8 vs. Q1, 4-0 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Creighton, SHU, @Nova, @Butler, swept Marquette...
Bad losses:  N-LBSU, N-Charleston, Penn, @Northwestern

Goodness gracious, this is a busy resume.  Very strong SoS.  7 Q1 wins!  3 Q3 losses and a Q4 loss!  The average win is below 100!  But it's below 100 because they blew 4 cupcakes who would've dragged that average way down.  I guess they have to go if they have that many signature wins (5 Q1-A wins!), but good god.  This resume is drunk.

Georgetown (15-13) (5-10) NET 59 SoS 21
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 58, avg win 134
4-10 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Creighton, N-Texas, @Okla St?
Bad losses:  technically UNCG is a Q3 loss, which is bullshit

A courtesy listing at this point, as they have games with Creighton and Nova in the hopper.

NIT watch:
St John's (14-14) (3-12) NET 74 SoS 46 - beat Zona and WVU, so a reasonable chance at the NIT.

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