Sunday, March 1, 2020

Bubble watch: ACC


Florida St (24-5) (14-4) NET 12 SoS 36
Vital signs:  9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 103, avg win 105
5-4 vs. Q1, 8-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  swept L'ville, @Florida, N-Purdue?
Bad losses:  @Pitt, @Clemson?

A merely okay non-con results page, and a down ACC means the 1 line is probably out of play.  And maybe the 2 line, but the ACCT will be a factor in that.

Louisville (23-6) (14-4) NET 9 SoS 27
Vital signs:  7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 27, avg win 122
4-5 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  @Duke, Michigan, @NC State?
Bad losses:  @Ga Tech, @Clemson?

2 or 3 line, and I can't see them being higher or lower.

Duke (23-6) (13-5) NET 6 SoS 25
Vital signs:  10-4 R/N, non-con SoS 7, avg win 108
4-4 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  N-Kansas, @MSU, FSU
Bad losses:  @Wake, SFA, @Clemson?

That Wake loss is the one that's gonna hurt.  That's a Q2 loss, and they probably have too much damage to make it to the 1 line.  That said, there's 3 really signature wins on the board.  On the other hand, those might be the only 3 teams they beat that will actually make the NCAAs.  A lack of depth of signature wins could be worth a seed line or two.


Virginia (21-7) (13-5) NET 51 SoS 76
Vital signs:  8-4 R/N, non-con SoS 212, avg win 124
4-3 vs. Q1, 7-3 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Duke, FSU, N-Arizona St?
Bad losses:  @BC, Syracuse and South Carolina at home

The bad NET and SoS numbers keep this resume from the lockbox for now.  But I can't imagine them missing at this point.  Especially because UL is still on the sked and that'll be a house money game.

North Carolina St (18-11) (9-9) NET 54 SoS 74
Vital signs:  5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 89, avg win 142
4-4 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Duke, Wisky, @Virginia
Bad losses:  GT, UNC, @BC

3 Q3 losses is a problem; the rest of the resume reads like a typical bubble resume.  With their SoS numbers in order this time around, I give them a fighting chance, so long as they avoid a dumb loss.

Clemson (15-13) (9-9) NET 73 SoS 38
Vital signs:  4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 174, avg win 135
3-6 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2
Signature wins:  Duke, Louisville, FSU
Bad losses:  Miami, VT, Yale, South Carolina, @Wake, @GT, @Minny?

This is an aggressive listing, since every metric but one is not good enough.  But that signature win category.  If they can keep a clean sheet in their final week, we'll have to take a longer look.

NIT watch:
Notre Dame (18-11) (9-9) NET 57 SoS 127 - non-con SoS in the 300s.  Average win of 169.  Best win is @Syracuse.  Just can't make a case.  Last chance saloon with a game at home vs. FSU coming.
Syracuse (16-13) (9-9) NET 70 SoS 50 - 2-7 vs. Q1, with a couple Q3 losses and middling SoS numbers.  I don't see a path forward.
Georgia Tech (14-14) (9-9) NET 77 SoS 31 - seems to be good enough for a NIT bid if they can stay at .500.
Virginia Tech (15-13) (6-11) NET 85 SoS 114 - VT on the other hand, is not.

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