Friday, January 26, 2018

1/27 S-CURVE

- I feel good about the teams listed in the 1 line, the 2 line, and the 3 line.  I'm not convinced I have the right order.  But the right teams are in those lines
- Pay attention to non-con SoSs when doing your seeds.  Red flags belong to:
Creighton (256)
Florida St (285)
Houston (271)
Kansas St (333)
...among others, of course.

The 1 line:  Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
The 2 line:  North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, Xavier
The 3 line:  Arizona, Auburn, Clemson, West Virginia
The 4 line:  Cincinnati, Tennessee, Ohio St, Michigan St
The 5 line:  Texas Tech, TCU, Kentucky, Rhode Island
The 6 line:  Seton Hall, Miami, Wichita St, Florida
The 7 line:  Nevada, Louisville, Arizona St, Arkansas
The 8 line:  Creighton, , Texas, St Mary's, Gonzaga
The 9 line:  Michigan, Butler, Alabama, Providence
The 10 line:  Missouri, USC, Syracuse, Florida St
The 11 line:  Marquette, Boise St, Western Kentucky, Texas A&M, Houston, South Carolina
The 12 line:  Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St, Loyola(Chi), Buffalo
The 13 line:  Northeastern, East Tennessee St, Louisiana, Vermont
The 14 line:  Belmont, South Dakota, Canisius, Wright St
The 15 line:  Montana, Hawaii, Bucknell, Penn
The 16 line:  Radford, Wagner, FGCU, Nicholls St, Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Next 4 in:
Boise St

Last 4 in:
Western Kentucky
Texas A&M
South Carolina

Last 4 out:
Kansas St
Notre Dame

Next 4 out:
Virginia Tech
St Bonaventure

Break it down!:
Big East 7
Big 12 6
B1G 4
Pac-12 3


HenryMuto said...

Ohio State is all over the board with people. Joe at ESPN had them as a 2 seed before the Penn State game and I seen them as low as a 7 seed in other spots. That was shocking to me I was thinking 4 seed before that game. After that game thinking 5 seed. I get that they are 9-1 in the Big 10 but if you break down their schedule it has been setup perfect for them to win their games they have played all the good teams at home and all the bad teams on the road so they had a legit shot to win them all. Had they not blown that Butler game (up 15 with 4 minutes left) that would gone a long way in helping their seed. As of now they have just 2 wins vs sure fire NCAA teams Michigan State and Michigan and both were at home.

I was really hoping to see both Ohio State and Purdue undefeated in the Big 10 coming into their game but that devastating 35 foot bank shot at the buzzer ruined that.

HenryMuto said...

Michigan State's Non conf SOS is pretty bad like 180 range which is surprising considering they are Michigan State. I wonder if that will hold them back on seeding.

What has Cincinnati really done to warrant being 13 on the S-Curve ? I don't think they are a protected seed right now because their profile has 0 wins against teams in your field right now. They have 4 "group 1" wins but 0 of the 4 are against NCAA teams so that group 1 stuff is still misleading and always will be some teams have better profile's with 1 "group 1" win.

Cincy for me is at best a 5 seed. Can't wait until Feb 11 to see where teams like Cincy, Michigan State and Ohio State actually stand.

HenryMuto said...

Kentucky really needs a win at West Virginia tonight but I doubt it happens I could see them falling down in the 7 seed range before long. They should have won at South Carolina and could have won at Florida (how does that foul not get called with 2 seconds left he ? Head is not part of the ball!) regardless a loss is a loss and they are not a good road team so I don't see Kentucky winning any more "big" games. They have chances at West Virginia, at Auburn and at Florida left likely will lose them all. They are just too young and have no alpha dog to close games this is not Kentucky's year. Looks like a 2014 seed type team 7/8 range when all is said and done.

HenryMuto said...

Western Kentucky is the type of team I want to see in the field that home loss to Middle Tennessee was a killer. That win vs Purdue is huge but 3 "bad" losses is going to kill them. Should they make the NCAA with a loss in conf tournament ? I say yes but I doubt the committee will they screwed Middle Tennessee last year.

HenryMuto said...

On another site I watch a lot (Hoops HD) they do a seed list from their own committee every Thursday night with a group of 4-6 people they had Michigan as a 4 seed. You have them as a 9 seed quite a big difference.

HenryMuto said...

I am surprised the NCAA is doing their top 4 seed lines on Sunday this year they did it on Saturday last year. So they will have to factor in all those Feb 10th Saturday games into their bracket.

Do you know if they actually meet to do this preview bracket or do they just do it through a chat or email or some other way ?

Andrew said...

Re: Ohio State and Cincy...we all get caught up in metrics, but in the end, if you go on a big winning streak in a bigger conference, you'll get some benefit of the doubt. They'll overseed the hot team.

I know people think Kentucky is underachieving but their computer profile is still strong. Strong SoS numbers, 8 wins in the top 2 groups, and the average RPI win is a sterling 109 right now. Of course the meat of their resume is yet to come so their status will change.

WKU's gonna have to hold their breath. They're about to enter a stretch where every game is a SoS killer. Right now their non-con SoS is their savior, but I have a feeling their resume won't hold.

4 line is a bit crazy for Michigan (non-con SoS north of 200, warning sirens going off), but I can be talked into a 6 or 7.

Andrew said...

I'm not even sure I want to dignify the top 4 line reveal by the NCAA. Clownshow. They can easily do it via email if they wanted to, the way the voting process works.

HenryMuto said...

No 1/27 recap after such a big day ?