Friday, January 12, 2018

1/13 S-CURVE

It feels like we have about thirteen 2 seeds right now.  There's just a bit logjam at the top and I don't have a great feel right now for how to separate these teams.  Right now, Duke (SoS kings) and Purdue (6 group 1 wins) get the nod on the 1 line, and some true blue bloods are relegated to the 3 line, but that'll change 27 times by the end of the year.

Right now, I'd wager Big East champ, ACC champ, and Big 12 champ have 3 spots on lock, and the SEC has left the door open for Arizona, Michigan St, or Purdue to come on in.  Going to be tough for any conference to get two spots on the 1 line without some help from the other conferences.

The 1 line:  Villanova (15-1), Virginia (15-1), Duke (14-2), Purdue (16-2)
The 2 line:  West Virginia (15-1), Oklahoma (13-2), Xavier (15-3), Michigan St (16-2)
The 3 line:  Kentucky (13-3), Kansas (13-3), North Carolina (13-4), Wichita St (14-2)
The 4 line:  Arizona (13-4), Texas Tech (14-2), Arizona St (13-3), Clemson (14-2)
The 5 line:  Auburn (15-1), Seton Hall (14-3), Cincinnati (14-2), Tennessee (11-4)
The 6 line:  TCU (13-3), Miami (13-2), Creighton (14-3), Florida (12-4)
The 7 line:  Gonzaga (15-3), Rhode Island (12-3), Nevada (15-3), Ohio St (14-4)
The 8 line:  Texas (11-5), Louisville (12-4), Texas A&M (11-5), Notre Dame (12-4)
The 9 line:  UCLA (13-4), Butler (13-6), Marquette (12-6), Missouri (11-4)
The 10 line:  Arkansas (11-5), Florida St (12-4), St Mary's (16-2), Michigan (13-4)
The 11 line:  Boise St (13-3), Syracuse (12-5), Mayrland (13-5), Houston (13-3), St Bonaventure (12-4), Washington (13-4)
The 12 line:  New Mexico St (12-3), Middle Tennessee (11-4), Buffalo (12-5), William & Mary (10-4)
The 13 line:  South Dakota St (11-5), Vermont (11-5), Louisiana (12-3), Drake (9-8)
The 14 line:  Wright St (11-5), East Tennessee St (11-4), Rider (11-6), Belmont (12-6)
The 15 line:  Cal St-Fullerton (8-5), Montana (10-5), Penn (10-5), Bucknell (10-8)
The 16 line:  Radford (9-7), St Francis(PA) (8-6), FGCU (8-8), SE Louisiana (7-7), Morgan St (5-9), Jackson St (5-10)

Next 4 in:
Florida St
Boise St

Last 4 in:
St Bonaventure

Last 4 out:
LSU (11-4)
Providence (12-6)
Georgia (11-4)
Utah (10-6)

Next 4 out:
USC (12-6)
Virginia Tech (13-4)
Minnesota (13-5)
Alabama (10-6)

Bubble inception - WE NEED TO GO DEEPER:
Baylor (10-5)
Oregon (12-5)
SMU (12-6)
San Diego St (10-4)
Western Kentucky (11-5)
Missouri St (12-5)
Mississippi St (12-3)
Colorado (10-7)

If you don't make the list, the road is long...but still plenty open and wide.  There's time.

Break it down!:
Big 12 6
Big East 6
B1G 5
Pac-12 4
A-10 2


HenryMuto said...

Now that the fantasy football season is over I am back to watching every college basketball game again and now just starting to look at all the teams and look closer at what they have done. I wonder how many people have noticed how ugly Michigan State' non conf SOS (189) is and that they only have 1 group 1 win with 8 group 4 wins. It seems that everyone is still putting MSU on the 2 line but why ? If we are just looking at the numbers that 189 non conf SOS should be killing them and only 1 group 1 win. Check out Ohio State they have the same 1 group 1 win they beat MSU head to head (albiet at home), they have a non conf SOS of 32 and only have 3 group 4 wins yet these teams are miles apart on the seed line. I think people are over seeding MSU right now based on the name not on the resume.

Glad to be back though I didn't win my another big check in the fantasy football season this year I will try to get all 68 teams right for a 2nd year in a row and 3rd time in the last 6 years and also will be trying to beat the entire bracket matrix field for a 3rd time in the last 4 years (beat everyone in 2015 and 2017). While I get zero credit for being as good as I am predicting the teams/seed lines each year it is nice to know I have beat the "great" Jerry Palm 9 times out of the last 11 years with one of the years being a tie and that guy is making money at this gig while I do it for fun.

HenryMuto said...

As you can tell by time stamp I posted that before MSU loss at home today which confirmed exactly what I was saying about them.

Andrew said...

I think the eye test still plays a little bit of a factor, hence everyone keeping Michigan St near the top. I think people, including me, will begin to move on that. Although I don't trust the committee completely to do that.

Start your own blog! You're long overdue to have some recognition. Although beating Palm is something not worth bragging about, he is very poor at his job.

HenryMuto said...

I was thinking about the new way they are doing the equivalent top 50, top 100 wins and it used to be (which made sense) if 2 teams played each other and both home teams or both road teams won it would work out the same. Both would be 1-1 vs top 50, top 100 or whatever but now it would actually benefit the 2 teams to both lose at home and win the road games instead of both winning at home losing on the road.

Say both teams are RPI 55-60 range if both win at home both get a group 2 win or an equivalent to what used to be top 100 win. If both win on the road both get a group 1 win or an equivalent to what used to be top 50 win. Yes they both get losses in group 2 but that is a better trade off as we have always seem the committee reward "top 50 equivalent" wins over penalty for "top 100 equivalent" losses.

So really the new system is unbalanced if teams play twice and they split both winning on the road because it is not equal to both teams winning at home which in the end is really the same thing (win on the road but lose at home against same time should cancel out but not now)

HenryMuto said...

Someone else finally seen the light today on MSU. This is from Shelby's bracket wag.

"Plenty of upsets and close games yesterday has resulted in the bracket below. Michigan State fans might scream because I have their team seeded so low, but their past three games are only a part of the reason for this drop to the 7-line. No doubt, they are a very talented team, still a final four contender, but their overall profile just doesn't measure up to those teams ahead of them. The win over UNC is solid for sure, but that is their only tier 1 win. In the losses to Ohio State and Michigan, they were handled quite easily. Another problem for them, the Big 10 is decidedly down this year, and in their remaining schedule, they only play two teams that are solidly ranked in the top 100 (Purdue and Maryland)!!! The opportunity for big/signature wins just isn't there. They might be able to get up to a protected seed (top 4 seed lines), but I cannot envision a scenario where they are in the discussion for the 1-line."