Saturday, February 25, 2017

2/25 recap

@Rhode Island 69, VCU 59 - URI was dead going in...and is still probably dead, but we'll put a pin in them and see how much bubble traffic cleared out today.  The bigger news is that VCU is NOT home free
elsewhere, in NITWatch, Richmond and Bonaventure won and maintain their bubble status

North Carolina 85, @Pittsburgh 67
@Miami 55, Duke 50 - Miami to the lockbox, I can't see them missing from this position.  And Duke is starting to give up seed lines again, back the 4, at least
Virginia 70, @NC State 55 - more important than you think, to stabilize Virginia's seed
Florida St 76, @Clemson 74 - a useful win for bracketologists, to finally be able to bury Clemson for good
Virginia Tech 91, @Boston College 75 - I'm having a tough time seeing how VaTech will miss from this position.  We're likely up to 8 teams in the ACC Lockbox, and GT and Syracuse as the only 2 wildcards

SMU 69, @UConn 61

Big 12:
Kansas 77, @Texas 67
@Iowa St 72, Baylor 69 - ISU to the lockbox.  Baylor to the 3....2 line.  2 line.  But things are starting to get crowded on those 2 lines
West Virginia 61, @TCU 60 - TCU only has KSU and @OU are they going to get the quality wins they need?  This is a fatal blow
@Oklahoma St 80, Texas Tech 63 - OSU to the lockbox
@Oklahoma 81, Kansas St 51 - wat

Big East:
@Villanova 79, Creighton 63
@Providence 73, Marquette 69 - okay, so this Providence thing is happening
Seton Hall 82, @DePaul 79 - we kind of have a mini-mess of Big East bubble teams right now.  I'm not convinced on what the order of SHU/MU/PU should be right now...but are all 3 in?
meanwhile, Georgetown lost to St John's and has gone full clownshoes down the stretch

@Michigan 82, Purdue 70 - there's a couple holes in the resume, but it'll be really tough for Michigan to miss at this point
Iowa 83, @Maryland 69 - Maryland is doing a lot of damage to its seed, likely down to the 8/9 range.  The good news is there's enough room between them and the bubble
@Minnesota 81, Penn St 71
@Indiana 63, Northwestern 62 - NU is NOT home free, folks.  Michigan and Purdue left, if they don't get one things get dicey

UNC-Wilmington wins and is in the regular season clubhouse at 26-5.  I've seen crazier at-large ideas

Wichita St 86, @Missouri St 67
Illinois St 63, @Northern Iowa 42 - sometimes, there's value in just keeping the wheels on the road

Nevada 94, @UNLV 58 - again, like UNCW, I've seen crazier ideas.  Downballot, Boise and Colorado St won and appear set for the NIT, at least

UCLA 77, @Arizona 72 - this will require some reconfiguring of the top 3 lines.  Arizona and UCLA can both occupy the 3 line now
Oregon 75, @Stanford 73

@Kentucky 76, Florida 66 - between this and Arizona/UCLA, this is going to require a lot of fine tuning and analysis to figure out who's ahead of who
@South Carolina 82, Tennessee 55 - USC to the lockbox, and Tennessee can just get right the heck out of here with that kind of performance
@Ole Miss 80, Missouri 77 - okay, okay.  We'll let Ole Miss hang out on the bubble for awhile
@Vanderbilt 77, Mississippi St 48 - this Vandy thing is happening, folks
Arkansas 79, @Auburn 68 - road wins are never trivial
@Texas A&M 56, Alabama 53 - other people thought Alabama was a thing?
@Georgia 82, LSU 80 - Georgia has the RPI but no other profile characteristic working in its favor

Fun Belt:
UT-Arlington won, and we're going to have to continue to pay attention to this

BYU 79, @Gonzaga 71 - the plot thickens
@St Mary's 70, Santa Clara 56

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