Wednesday, February 22, 2017

2/22 recap

There's going to be a lot of bubble movement.  Signature wins change a lot.  Signature ROAD wins are the entire world.

@North Carolina 74, Louisville 63 - move UNC to the 1 line post haste!
@Syracuse 78, Duke 75 - Syracuse isn't home free because of the sheer number of losses, but they've given themselves some working room these next couple of weeks.  Duke falls a full step behind in the pursuit of the 2 line
@Wake Forest 63, Pittsburgh 59 - Pitt's resurgence was short-lived.  This doesn't solve Wake's problems though, except for the fact that it's one less team in the crowded bubble to worry about

Big East:
Butler 74, @Villanova 66 (OT) - signature road wins!  This is why the bad losses are so maddening for Butler.  Butler would be on the 1 line if you could erase Indiana St and St John's.  We'll deal with the #1 overall seed in another post somewhere, but that's back in play, obviously
Providence 68, @Creighton 66 - GO AWAY PROVIDENCE.  This particular case just got more complicated.  Again, road wins are magic, so much more than home wins.  I don't feel like putting them in the field yet, but it's a conversation at least
DePaul 67, @Georgetown 65 - lol.  DePaul.  At home!
@Seton Hall 71, Xavier 64 - SHU's in the same pile as most of these bubble teams, and they pick up a quality win of their own.  They might be able to survive a bad loss, unlike most other teams in this situation.  Xavier's seed is becoming a real, real issue

Big 12:
@Kansas 87, TCU 68 - this doesn't hurt TCU, but we're at the point where they may need more than standing still
Oklahoma St 80, @Kansas St 68 - as I like to say, when you have bubble v. bubble games, pay attention when the road team wins.  OSU is just about home free to an at-large bid, and Kansas St remains on the edge

Oregon 68, @California 65 - what a crucial chance blown for Cal.  And they're out of signature win chances for awhile.  They're going to fall out of the field, by the law of averages, as others pick up better wins

Minnesota 89, @Maryland 75 - signature road wins!  Maryland has a resume problem, and is in bigger trouble than you think, seed wise.  Minny's in that 6-8 range too, but that's not too interesting to talk about
Michigan 68, @Rutgers 64 - tough to see given the signature wins flying around tonight, but this was just as important.  Michigan has a serious problem with its road record, so showing any kind of competency is big here

Vanderbilt 67, @Tennessee 56 - road wins!  road wins everywhere!  This Vanderbilt thing is happening if they to selection Sunday with 15 overall losses.  Deal with it.  I think Tennessee's done, but I'd appreciate a loss at South Carolina to make life easy
@Arkansas 86, Texas A&M 77

@VCU 64, St Louis 50

@Illinois 50, Southern Illinois 46 - nights like tonight are the disaster for ISU.  Idling while everyone else picks up signature wins is just as bad as losing a bad game yourself
@Nevada 85, Boise St 77 - Nevada earns the right to carry faint at-large hopes over the next 2 weeks

@East Tennessee St 93, Furman 81 (OT) - notable just because I had ETSU around the NIT bubble if they didn't win the SoCon, but now....they should win it
@Houston 75, UConn 70 - hey did you know UConn crept over .500?  neat


HenryMuto said...

I am still not buying Vanderbilt. If they do not win at Kentucky they are not likely to get in with 15 losses. I will hold off on final judgement until Selection Sunday but no team has ever got an at large bid with 15 losses and the SEC isn't the ACC where you can make the case about being in the toughest top to bottom conference of all time.

I tell you what if Bucknell loses their conf tournament let's put them in over Vanderbilt they did beat vanderbilt on Vandy's home floor and might be a better team straight up as proven by winning on their home court.

Vandy isn't happening with 15 losses.

HenryMuto said...

I just looked at their schedule they need to beat both Kentucky and Florida to stay at 14 losses good luck!