Sunday, February 12, 2017

2/11 recap

@VCU 74, Davidson 60
also, if NIT bubble games are your thing, St Bonaventure lost at GW and Richmond won at LaSalle.  Richmond seems to be clearing itself to be A-10 #4

@Louisville 71, Miami 66 - missed chance for Miami, but status quo remains for them
@Notre Dame 84, Florida St 72 - FSU probably off the pace from UNC and Louisville, a pretty clear #3 in the ACC right now.  Still on my 2 line, though
@Duke 64, Clemson 62 - getting pretty close to the last chance saloon for Clemson.  3-9 in conference is just too far off the pace to be relevant
@Wake Forest 88, NC State 58
@Pittsburgh 80, Syracuse 75 - we'll worry about Pitt if they win a few more.  We'll worry about Syracuse for now; this is why we say road wins are never trivial
@Georgia Tech 65, Boston College 54 - usually I say conference records don't really matter, but they might be useful in the ACC to separate some of the many, many bubble teams.  It's tough to take a Clemson seriously with 3 conference wins, but the longer Wake and GT stay around .500, the better it is for them.  It's easy to make an argument for a 8-10 ACC team; it's a bit tougher for 7-11

nothing actionable, but UConn got to .500 beating UCF, and Houston beat Tulsa on the road.  Houston is in pretty good shape for the NIT now

Big 12:
Kansas 80, @Texas Tech 79 - that's probably it for TTU
@Baylor 70, TCU 52
@West Virginia 85, Kansas St 66
@Oklahoma St 84, Texas 71
@Iowa St 80, Oklahoma 64 - pretty uneventful day; everyone held serve

Big East:
Villanova 73, @Xavier 57 - signature road wins matter
@Providence 71, Butler 65 - yet another game that makes it impossible to seed Butler properly.  I'm about ready to throw my hands up.  I'm still going to need another win like this before I seriously consider Provi, though
Creighton 93, @DePaul 58
@St John's 78, Seton Hall 70 - ugly, ugly look for SHU here.  St John's is 6-7 in BE play, which is a disaster.  Having a team this bad in the non-con look this good inside the conference just ruins everything for everyone
@Georgetown 80, Marquette 62 - this is why road wins are never trivial.  Big East kind of has a mess on its hands.  Odds are one of SHU and Marquette will make it, or Georgetown or Provi might make a big run, but as of today, aren't they all out?

@Maryland 86, Ohio St 77
Minnesota 72, @Rutgers 63 - road wins are never trivial
@Michigan St 77, Iowa 66
meanwhile, on the NIT bubble, Penn St won at Illinois

@Middle Tennessee 70, Charlotte 55

@Elon 77, UNC-Wilmington 76 - okay, now we've definitely reached endgame on UNCW's chances.  Also Charleston lost, so this race is getting interesting.  Both teams still appear to be NIT locks, at least

@Illinois St 64, Bradley 50

Boise and Colorado St won....seems like a 4 team breakaway with Nevada leading and New mexico looming...I'd have all 4 safely in the NIT right now

Oregon 81, @USC 70 - road wins matter
@Arizona 62, California 57
@Utah 85, Washington 61
and Stanford lost at, the Pac-12 might only have 5 postseason teams, period

Kentucky 67, @Alabama 58
@Florida 71, Texas A&M 62
South Carolina 77, @Mississippi St 73 - road wins are never trivial
@Ole Miss 90, Auburn 84 - this just pushes both well off the bubble pace....I can't separate these teams from each other right now.  Just look at the conference standings
Arkansas 78, @LSU 70 - road wins are never trivial
Georgia 76, @Tennessee 75 - I'm so mad at Tennessee for screwing this up, they could make life so much easier by separating from the middle of the pack in this conference
NIT watch:  with Vandy losing at Missouri....I still count 7 SEC teams with winning records overall and SEC records in between 7-5 and 5-7.  Can we put 7 teams in the NIT here?

Gonzaga 74, @St Mary's 64

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