Sunday, February 12, 2017

2/13 S-CURVE

Well see, this is why I hate the selection committee for what they did.  Now I'm handcuffed into following their S-Curve for the time being.  I don't like this.

1) Gonzaga stays at #4 overall.  They're kind of in no-man's land where I don't think they can do anything to pass the top 3 without getting some help.  On the other hand, I think they have a bit of a gap to the good on all the ACC teams behind them.
2) One bit of warning for Gonzaga though - whoever wins that ACC conference tournament is picking up 2 signature wins in all likelihood.  So they might need either Kansas or Baylor to separate from the other in the Big 12 to give them some cushion.
3) You tell me what to do with Butler.  Please.
4) Purdue wins the race to the top 5 seed this time...the 5 and 6 lines are pretty compact right now.
5) The 9 line is where things start getting real ugly.  Starting there, I started wincing at all the seeds
6) This is some god-awful bubble right now.  Wichita, Michigan St....I don't really want these teams in.  Ga Tech?  Gah.  Wake being in this bracket is a goddamned travesty.  Houston is 4 spots out right now!  My God!
7) That said, the bubble will strengthen.  With the quality of teams on the top 6 or 7 lines, the chances of signature wins by bubble teams are going to increase this year.  Teams will win their way into this field.

The 1 line:  Villanova (24-2), Kansas (22-3), Baylor (21-3), Gonzaga (26-0)
The 2 line:  North Carolina (20-5), Louisville (20-5), Florida St (21-5), Oregon (21-4)
The 3 line:  Arizona (23-3), Florida (20-5), Kentucky (20-5), Virginia (18-6)
The 4 line:  West Virginia (20-5), UCLA (23-3), Duke (20-5), Butler (19-6)
The 5 line:  Purdue (20-5), Notre Dame (19-7), Creighton (20-4), Wisconsin (21-4)
The 6 line:  Cincinnati (22-3), Maryland (20-4), Xavier (18-7), SMU (22-4)
The 7 line:  Northwestern (19-6), St Mary's (22-3), South Carolina (19-5), USC (21-5)
The 8 line:  Dayton (18-5), Miami (16-8), Virginia Tech (17-7), Minnesota (18-7)
The 9 line:  VCU (20-5), Iowa St (15-9), California (18-7), TCU (16-8)
The 10 line:  Oklahoma St (15-9), Middle Tennessee (21-4), Kansas St (16-9), Syracuse (16-10)
The 11 line:  Michigan (16-9), Michigan St (15-10), Arkansas (18-7), Wichita St (22-4), Georgia Tech (14-10), Wake Forest (15-10)
The 12 line:  Illinois St (20-5), Akron (20-4), Boise St (15-7), UNC-Wilmington (20-5)
The 13 line:  Monmouth (21-5), Valparaiso (20-5), Princeton (14-6), Vermont (22-5)
The 14 line:  Furman (16-8), Georgia Southern (14-9), UNC-Asheville (18-7), Belmont (18-5)
The 15 line:  North Dakota St (15-8), Cal St-Bakersfield (14-7), Bucknell (19-7), FGCU (17-7)
The 16 line:  Texas Southern (14-10), North Carolina Central (15-6), New Orleans (12-9), Weber St (13-8), Mount St Mary's (14-13), UC-Davis (14-9)

Next 4 in:
Kansas St
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest

Last 4 out:
Indiana (15-11)
Seton Hall (15-9)
Marquette (15-10)
Clemson (13-11)

Next 4 out:
Houston (18-7)
Tennessee (13-11)
Rhode Island (16-8)
Ohio St (15-11)


HenryMuto said...

I still say no to Texas Tech non conf SOS of like 329. I wish these some of these top mid majors got to play 8 home games a year vs the big guys they would win a game or two at home too. Middle Tenn and Wichita State are the only 2 potential at large bid mid majors this year and that is pushing it. They both would need to likely win out to the conf finals and then not even in for sure.

Andrew said...

Put a pin next to UT-Arlington. If they can get through their Georgia road trip, there's something there. Of course, their profile is very similar to last year's Monmouth. But I think last year's Monmouth would make this year's field.

HenryMuto said...

I don’t see how Wake Forset can be in the field. They have 1 win vs a team that is wearing black in Miami and 1 win vs a bubble team Ga Tech. You play in the ACC and that is your resume ? That isn’t going to get it done. You are 0-8 vs RPI top 50 at some point you have to win some of those games and they have not won a single one. You shouldn’t get into the tournament based on having a bunch of good losses just because you play in the ACC. I don’t even think Wake is in the first 4 out. I get that the bubble is weak (we hear that every year). They have to beat someone.

Andrew said...

Wake will be out by March, but I think today, given the choices, the selection committee would be swayed by the SoS numbers. Their losses are tolerable; everyone else's aren't as much. And people are going to have to concede defeat to our ACC overlords this year. They're going to run riot over the at-large field.

HenryMuto said...

Indiana, Rhode Island and Ohio State all light years away from making the field.

HenryMuto said...

Too bad we don't have some good mid major profiles with out terrible all the power school bubble teams are if Monmouth would have had last year's profile this year I bet they would get in. The last 4 in right now is truly 4 teams that do not deserve to be in whoever those 4 teams would be.