Friday, February 10, 2017

2/10 S-CURVE

- There's a bit of distance between the 1 line and 2 line right now.  Did some tweaking in some of the order on the top 2 lines.  You can argue any order of the ACC teams on the 2 line and I wouldn't object too much.
- The last 2 seed is a flashpoint in the bracket, Arizona continues to hold, but there's half a dozen reasonable candidates right now.
- Looking closer, I dropped Kentucky to the 4 line.  Not so much their fault as it is that I feel like Oregon/UCLA/UVa should just be higher at the moment.  I like UK's chances to get back to the 3 line.
- Everything starts to get ugly around the 7 line.  The 5 and 6 lines feel pretty strong, but it falls off a cliff behind them.  Everyone behind about USC should feel in trouble.
- The 8/9 lines are incredibly weak.

The 1 line:  Villanova (23-2), Kansas (21-3), Baylor (20-3), Gonzaga (25-0)
The 2 line:  North Carolina (20-5), Florida St (21-4), Louisville (19-5), Arizona (22-3)
The 3 line:  West Virginia (19-5), Oregon (20-4), UCLA (22-3), Virginia (18-5)
The 4 line:  Kentucky (19-5), Duke (19-5), Wisconsin (21-3), Cincinnati (22-2)
The 5 line:  Florida (19-5), Butler (19-5), Purdue (20-5), Creighton (19-4)
The 6 line:  St Mary's (22-2), Xavier (18-6), Notre Dame (18-7), Maryland (19-4)
The 7 line:  SMU (21-4), South Carolina (18-5), USC (21-4), Dayton (17-5)
The 8 line:  Northwestern (18-6), Miami (16-7), Minnesota (17-7), Virginia Tech (16-7)
The 9 line:  VCU (19-5), Iowa St (14-9), California (18-6), TCU (16-7)
The 10 line:  Syracuse (16-9), Oklahoma St (14-9), Middle Tennessee (20-4), Kansas St (16-8)
The 11 line:  Arkansas (17-7), Michigan St (14-10), Wichita St (21-4), Indiana (15-10), Georgia Tech (13-10), Marquette (15-9)
The 12 line:  Illinois St (19-5), UNC-Wilmington (20-4), Nevada (19-5), Akron (19-4)
The 13 line:  Valparaiso (19-5), New Mexico St (19-3), Monmouth (20-5), Georgia Southern (14-8)
The 14 line:  Belmont (18-4), Vermont (21-5), Princeton (12-6), Furman (15-8)
The 15 line:  UNC-Asheville (17-7), North Dakota St (14-8), Bucknell (19-7), FGCU (16-7)
The 16 line:  Texas Southern (13-10), North Carolina Central (14-6), Weber St (12-8), New Orleans (11-9), Mount St Mary's (13-13), UC-Davis (13-9)

Next 4 in:
Oklahoma St
Kansas St
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Wichita St
Georgia Tech

Last 4 out:
Seton Hall (15-8)
Wake Forest (14-10)
Tennessee (13-10)
Clemson (13-10)

Next 4 out:
Rhode Island (16-7)
Michigan (15-9)
Alabama (14-9)
Houston (17-7)

I'm also going to post the top 16 and their projected regionals:

1) Villanova (23-2) @Buffalo
2) North Carolina (23-2) @Greenville
3) West Virginia (19-5) @Buffalo
4) Duke (19-5) @Orlando

1) Gonzaga (25-0) @Salt Lake City
2) Arizona (22-3) @Salt Lake City
3) Virginia (18-5) @Greenville
4) Cincinnati (22-2) @Milwaukee

1) Baylor (20-3) @Tulsa
2) Florida St (21-4) @Orlando
3) UCLA (22-3) @Sacramento
4) Kentucky (19-5) @Indianapolis

1) Kansas (21-3) @Tulsa
2) Louisville (19-5) @Indianapolis
3) Oregon (20-4) @Sacramento
4) Wisconsin (21-3) @Milwaukee

You can probably notice a significant flaw.  East adds up to 29; west to 40.  That's untenable, but also unavoidable.  Here's how it happened:
- On the 2 line, we have 3 ACC teams and Arizona.  Obviously, Arizona's ideal regional is the west and the ACC teams' ideal regional is anything but.  Therefore, Arizona to the west...but Gonzaga is there as the worst 1 seed.  Therefore, the worst 1 seed and worst 2 seed occupy the same regional.
- Virginia is on the 3 line.  By rule, they need to be in a different regional than the other 3 ACC teams ahead of them.  That means they automatically are forced to the west regional.  But they're the worst 3 seed.  Therefore, the worst 3 seed is now in the same regional as the worst 1 and the worst 2.  Disaster.
- On top of that, Cincy is the worst 4 seed.  So the west is the worst possible regional, and there's not even a way around it.  You either have to send a ACC 2 seed out west, or Kentucky out west, to even it out.  But that would mean punishing a team that earned a geographic advantage.
- The East wound up with the top 1 seed, top 2 seed, and top 3 seed.  WVU as the 3 seed is stuck because of conference conflicts, but I could see UNC get flipped with another ACC team to help even things out.


HenryMuto said...

West Virginia at 9 seems pretty high to me. I think they are at least as low as 12 maybe lower. They have 3 great wins but those losses vs Temple, Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home 3 losses vs non NCAA teams. Also their RPI is around 33 if that even matters to the committee anymore who knows but that is sure low.

It seems like there are 19 teams for 16 spots tomorrow's show.

I think the #1 seeds are locked in but I believe Gonzaga will be #2 overall seed if they show it. I have it in this order.

1) Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor

The 2 seeds are a little tougher as all of them seem to be coming off recent losses with in some order them being North Carolina, Fla St, Arizona, Oregon, Virgina, Louisville all in contention.

I think the last 3 seed is going to be between West Virgina, Kentucky, Duke and if the committee isn't paying attention the weak Wisky profile. Personally I am not sure Wisky should even be a 4 seed but I think the committee will give it to them.

Wisky, Cincy, Florida, Purdue and Butler I think 3 of them get left out.

HenryMuto said...

I just spent the last 30 minutes looking over every resume of teams 5-19 since I think 19 teams have a shot at the top 4 seeds tomorrow. My main focus when looking at all these teams was wins vs expected teams in the at large field and any bad losses to teams about 100 RPI or lower range plus total number of losses.

I think the top 4 seeds are as clear as they can be and the regions are crystal clear the only real question for me if they show the exact rank 1-16 is where Gonzaga fits on the 1-4 ranking. I think it is clear that Villanova is ahead of Kansas and Kansas is ahead of Baylor I just not sure how they view Gonzaga who could be viewed as 1,2,3 or 4 but no matter where they view these 4 teams they all have a region they are going to go regardless.

East - Nova, MW- Kansas, South- Baylor and West - Gonzaga for the 1 seeds

I found the 2 line a little rough it doesn't seem possible but I could not find a way to leave off any of the 4 big ACC teams. It seems crazy but by beating each other up they can't make the 1 line but they all fit at the 2 line

I have North Carolina, Florida St, Louisville, Virginia as my 2's. I think NC and Fla St are pretty much locks with Louisville and Virginia being wild cards. Those 2 teams were tough to split up because Louisville has the better profile over Virginia if you discount the 2 losses to Virginia so that muddies the waters between the 2 teams so it seems they should have same seed be it 2 or 3 seed but I couldn't put any of the Pac 12 schools on the 2 line as they took turns beating each other and not doing a whole lot more.

3 seeds Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, West Virginia - WV was a tough case they have 3 fantastic wins but a couple bad losses. If Oregon beat UCLA I would had them as a 2.

4 seeds if Duke had lost vs NC I would had them out but I put them in with that win. Butler is a strange case great wins and a couple terrible loses they will either be a 3,4 or 5 based on how the committee values big wins vs bad losses. I put them on the 4 line. Kentucky I think based off being "Kentucky" gets in on the 4 line but they only have wins vs NC, South Carolina and Michigan State of teams that would be in the field as of today and that is it.

The last 4 was tough call very tough call for me you have Wisconsin, Purdue and Cincy left I say no to Cincy they only have beat Xavier, SMU and Iowa St. Tough call between Wisky and Purdue as Purdue beat Wisky plus @ Maryland, vs ND but lost twice to bad teams on road. Wisc has some solid wins nothing great but only 3 losses. Maybe 0 Big 10 teams should be in and Cincy getting it who knows on this one. I will go with Wisky hell the committee could give them a 3 seed.

If I am wrong on a team it is likely to be Butler being left out for Purdue or Cincy. Too many big wins for me to leave them out.

My 1-16 rank like this plus the next 4 in case I miss to see which hits


North Carolina
Florida State

West Virginia



HenryMuto said...

It's funny I had Kentucky over West Virginia until a couple days ago but relented to all the noise and put them over us. I had WV on the 4 line and brought them up because others had them so damn high based on a few wins. I said they are a tough one with great wins vs good losses.

I got 15 of the 16 right missed Florida and look Wisconsin is out. Again I relented to the noise....damn it I should posted my initial seedings 3 days ago when I was right about more. I had Wisky as a 5 but let the noise talk me into them into the #16 so many people on CBS had them as a 2 seed. Glad to see my initial thoughts were correct on teams like Wisky, Purdue, Butler, Cincy. Just was off on Florida.

Andrew said...

I'm modestly surprised they stuck WVU as a 4 seed. Maybe it's because with a few less games, it's tougher to ignore the bad losses. Florida is the one I'm not sure of; it feels like they're a slave to the computer numbers on that one.

HenryMuto said...

Agree as Florida is the one team I missed.