Wednesday, February 22, 2017

2/22 update

Full S-Curve updates go daily next Monday.  I'll try to update the bubble daily though, at least.

Illinois St has been the projected winner of the MVC for awhile now, but Wichita is 1/2 game ahead now (ISU plays tonight), so that creates one extra at large slot.  We also move Ga Tech out of the field, and the bubble with 2 new entrants is:

Last 4 in:

Last 4 out:
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest

Next 4 out:

Vandy's at Tennessee, so that'll be eventful.  TCU is at Kansas and will likely hold their spot at a minimum.  Pitt is at Wake, that obviously also matters.


HenryMuto said...

Syracuse needs to be out...16-12 and RPI of 86. No team has ever had an RPI below 72 since like 2004 and made it (yep sadly Syracuse last year).

If they lose 2 more games they are done for good no team has ever had 15 losses and got an at large bid.

HenryMuto said...

Vanderbilt ..... hell to the no ..... 14-13 teams are not making the NCAA tournament....ever.

They lose 1 more game and they are dead for good no team has ever had 15 losses and got an at large bid.

ILLSC said...

Wrong... you must have gone to vandy legitsmitly look at illini and compare to candy and tcu, illinois doesn't belong but there resume is better than both

Andrew said...

I'll start by saying Illinois did jump a bunch, I'm sure they can be slotted somewhere around the last 8 teams out I listed. But...

Illinois (15-12) (6-9) RPI 59 SoS 12
Vital signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 42, 3-7 vs. Top 50, 7-12 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-VCU, Michigan, swept Northwestern
Bad losses: Winthrop, @Indiana and swept by Penn St don't look good

Vanderbilt (14-13) (7-7) RPI 49 SoS 3
Vital signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 4-7 vs. Top 50, 9-12 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Florida, Iowa St, S Carolina, @Arky?
Bad losses: @Mizzou, N-Bucknell? Auburn?

Both are similar on the road, both have butt-ugly losses...Vandy's collection of wins are slightly better, and Florida is a signature win Illinois can't match (VCU/Michigan/NW aren't on that level. And Vandy has the better schedule.

TCU (16-10) (6-8) RPI 58 SoS 32
Vital signs: 4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 113, 2-8 vs. Top 50, 5-10 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Iowa St, @K-State? Illinois St?
Bad losses: Auburn, @TTU

TCU is an argument I can make, but the selection committee seems to like not to throw out teams without a sub-100 loss, which TCU has managed to avoid. Illinois' collection of wins moved ahead of TCU's yesterday, so this isn't as unreasonable an argument.

Andrew said...

Henry, I'll gladly take out Vandy and Syracuse when you let me know what teams go in their place. I'm desperately pleading for a mid-major to show up. Illinois St doesn't count, IMO.

I may have some tough calls to make if Nevada or MTSU or UTA show up on the at-large board instead of the auto-bid pool.

Andrew said...

And now I realize Illinois doesn't have a sub-100 loss either....feels like Indiana and Winthrop should be there, but they're not. I think TCU's losses are "better" than Illinois', though.

HenryMuto said...

Jesus Christ now Syracuse is going to get a bid. They will be the worst RPI to ever get at large bid probably.

This team lost at home by 33 to Saint John's.

Lost to UCONN and Boston College too.

Just awful how many times these teams in the ACC can lose and still get a bid because every game is against a "quality" team.

HenryMuto said...

I know the bubble is awful this year. Too bad the committee will screw the mid majors again if they lose (See Monmouth last year).

What will happen is the last 4-6 bubble spots will come down to the conf tournaments you will get some bubble teams going head to head and whoever wins gets in and loser goes out in a few of those.