S-Curve 2/16

Notes on the curves:

1) The top 8 teams have clearly separated themselves from the pack.  It's going to take significant events for the 8 teams in the top 2 lines to fall out.

2) As for positioning within the top 8, I think Gonzaga is going to fall and fall.  Through no fault of their own.  They're stuck in a conference without signature win chances, and everyone else is starting to pile them up by the bucketful right now.  There's just nothing Gonzaga can do about it.

3) Virginia's going to have to lose twice before I even consider moving them down a spot.

4) The 5-6-7-8 lines are pretty strong right now.  I expect significant movement within them, as we have some pretty good teams there.

5) However, after that MSU/OSU bundle on the 8 line, things fall off a cliff.  The bubble starts with Dayton.  And it's ugly, and everyone in that section is losing.  Avoiding home losses and losses to non-tourney teams are paramount right now.  Road losses to good teams are okay.

6) Today's A-10 autobid representative is UMass, as I have them leading the tiebreaker among the four leaders right now.  If you're curious.

7) I've been mild on both Arkansas and SMU.  Time for me to give in and seed them more appropriately.

8) I'm doing separate posts for the NIT, CBI, and CIT.

The 1 line:  Kentucky (25-0), Virginia (23-1), Duke (22-3), Wisconsin (23-2)

The 2 line:  Gonzaga (25-1), Villanova (23-2), Kansas (21-4), Arizona (22-3)

The 3 line:  Utah (19-4), Notre Dame (22-4), Maryland (21-5), Louisville (20-5)

The 4 line:  Iowa St (18-6), North Carolina (18-7), Northern Iowa (24-2), Butler (18-7)

The 5 line:  Arkansas (20-5), SMU (20-5), Wichita St (22-3), Baylor (17-7)

The 6 line:  Georgetown (16-8), Oklahoma (17-8), Providence (18-8), Indiana (18-8)

The 7 line:  VCU (19-6), West Virginia (19-6), Oklahoma St (16-8), San Diego St (19-6)

The 8 line:  Texas (17-8), Michigan St (17-8), Ohio St (19-7), Dayton (19-5)

The 9 line:  Colorado St (20-5), Stanford (16-9), Ole Miss (17-8), Cincinnati (17-8)

The 10 line:  Temple (19-7), Georgia (16-8), Xavier (16-10), Iowa (15-10)

The 11 line:  St John's (16-8), UCLA (16-10), Illinois (17-9), Texas A&M (17-7), LSU (18-7), Purdue (17-9)

The 12 line:  UMass (16-9), Wofford (19-6), Bowling Green (17-5), Murray St (21-4)

The 13 line:  Louisiana Tech (19-6), Valparaiso (21-4), Harvard (15-5), Iona (21-6)

The 14 line:  Eastern Washington (16-6), Sam Houston St (16-5), William & Mary (14-9), UC-Davis (17-4)

The 15 line:  South Dakota St (17-8), Louisiana-Monroe (14-8), North Carolina Central (16-6), Albany (18-7)

The 16 line:  FGCU (16-7), Texas Southern (12-12), New Mexico St (15-10), Radford (16-8), St Francis(NY) (17-9), Bucknell (14-12)

Bubble in:

Dayton

Colorado St

Stanford

Ole Miss

Cincinnati

Temple

Georgia

Next 4 in:

Xavier

Iowa

St John's

UCLA

Last 4 in:

Illinois

Texas A&M

LSU

Purdue

Last 4 out:

North Carolina St (15-11)

Oregon (17-8)

Miami (15-9)

Tulsa (17-6)

Next 4 out:

Old Dominion (18-6)

Pittsburgh (16-9)

George Washington (17-8)

St Mary's (18-6)

The consideration board:

*UMass (in with autobid right now)

Seton Hall (16-10)

Davidson (16-6)

Rhode Island (16-6)

BYU (18-8)


Break it down!
B1G 8
Big 12 7
Big East 6
SEC 6
ACC 5
Pac-12 4
A-10 3
AAC 3
MVC 2
MW 2