CBI/CIT projections 2/16

Ok, I like to do this once or twice a year, so before I begin, let me tell you how to use these projections.

Many teams turn down bids to these two tournaments.  I DO NOT make attempts to predict which teams will turn down these bids, outside of power conference teams who usually don't sign up for these things.  DO NOT ASSUME A TEAM WOULD ACCEPT OR REJECT A BID based on these projections.  I don't know the answer.  You don't.  Most don't.  If you're offended your team is listed here and that they're above this tournament, that's okay.

The reason I like doing these is to provide a snapshot of the types of teams in line to play in these events.  For the small schools, this can be a moderate-to-big deal.  I like to give a general idea of where the potential bubble for these events lie, and the type of opponents you can expect in the tournament.

Now, with those qualifiers out of the way, let's look at the bubble environment.

Teams likely to turn down bids:
- Among power conference teams, the Pac-12 looks like they'll have a couple teams (Arizona St, Washington, et al) that will not make the NIT, and I can't imagine they'd play the CBI.
- TCU is getting nowhere near the NIT, but might finish around .500 overall.  I'm guessing they skip the CBI.
- Right now, I have 5 ACC teams in the NIT.  A couple of them will likely fall out, and their seasons will be over.
- My general rule:  teams in top 6 conferences (B1G, Pac-12, Big 12, ACC, Big East, SEC) are out, everyone else is in unless they're a UConn-type.

Teams that might accept bids:
- In the A-10, Richmond and St Bonaventure are around .500 overall and in conference play, and would probably get cinch invites.
- In the WCC, whoever finishes 4th among Pepperdine, Portland, and San Diego will be in good shape, and depending on if they can hang around .500 in conference play, all 3 might get postseason bids.
- The MAC is loaded with teams with good records and bad SoSs.  Kent St, Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan, AND Eastern Michigan are all there.  As of today, if I had to guess, I'd say Kent, CMU, and Toledo are locks and WMU and EMU are bubble teams for the postseason.
- In the MVC, Indiana St is a curious case, being 3rd in the conference but .500 overall.  If they maintain both, they'll get postseason invites, as will Evansville and Illinois St.
- Teams in smaller conferences I'd consider safe:  Georgia Southern, Northwestern, Rider, Chattanooga, High Point, Western Kentucky, UAB.  Generally, teams with reasonably good RPIs and teams near the top of their conference standings.
- I'm not sure what the Mountain West teams will do, and there will be a few in play (New Mexico, UNLV, etc)

Teams on the bubble:
- 2nd place teams from bad conferences are likely to finish above .500 and get interest from the CIT.  Think North Florida, Sacramento St, Montana, Vermont, North Dakota St, UC-Irvine.
- NJIT is a curious case, who is far back in the computer rankings but has a good chance to finish above .500.
- Everyone in the Ivy League behind Harvard and Yale.  Even though the conference is high up on the CRPI, there's no obvious profile behind the top 2 that looks good.
- Everyone in the Big South.  I've said plenty about that conference race already, and the result is a big gaggle of teams above .500 with a chance.
- Teams in the MAAC.  This conference is in a down year.
- Among teams currently under .500 overall, only Long Beach St would be a team I'd call a lock if they got above .500.  Remember the CIT has that threshold and the CBI doesn't.

Okay, now let's get to the irrational overreaction part.  Let's list some teams in a bracket.

AGAIN, DO NOT ASSUME A TEAM WOULD ACCEPT OR REJECT A BID based on these projections.  I don't know the answer.  You don't.  Most don't.

CBI Projections:

Rider (18-9) at St Bonaventure (13-10)
Evansville (17-8) at Kent St (16-8)

Cleveland St (14-11) at Toledo (16-9)
Indiana St (12-13) at Western Kentucky (14-8)

High Point (16-7) at UNC-Wilmington (14-10)
Tulane (13-10) at Georgia St (16-8)

Sacramento St (14-8) at Pepperdine (14-11)
UC-Irvine (12-10) at UNLV (13-11)

Now, in trying to find information about the CIT, I couldn't find anything for 2015.  Is this thing confirmed back?

CIT Projections:

Vermont (15-10) at Northeasterrn (17-10)
NJIT (13-11) at Monmouth (14-12)
Eastern Michigan (12-9) at Richmond (13-12)
Eastern Kentucky (14-9) at James Madison (16-11)

Robert Morris (13-13) at American (14-12)
UAB (12-13) at Chattanooga (16-9)
Belmont (15-10) at Central Michigan (15-5)
Western Michigan (13-10) at Illinois St (14-11)

Coastal Carolina (14-8) at North Florida (13-11)
Charleston Southern (13-9) at Norfolk St (14-11)
Mercer (13-12) at Georgia Southern (15-5)
Texas-Arlington (13-10) at UTSA (11-11)

Hawaii (16-9) at Portland (14-10)
UC-Santa Barbara (11-11) at New Mexico (14-11)
Utah St (13-10) at San Diego (13-13)
Montana (12-10) at North Dakota St (16-8)

Teams who I left off that have reasonable postseason chances:
Loyola(Chi), Columbia, Lehigh, Hofstra, Manhattan, Oral Roberts, St Francis(PAY), Winthrop, Gardner-Webb, UNC-Asheville, Northern Arizona, Stony Brook, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Grand Canyon