Bubble Watch 2/2: MWC edition

This conference is currently 12th in conference RPI.  Behind the A-10, okay.  Behind the WCC and MVC, not great.  Behind the MAC?  Oh no.

The Lockbox

none

And as a result, no on is a lock yet, because no one has access to signature wins in conference play.

Bubble

San Diego St (17-5) (7-2) RPI 25 SoS 63
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 41, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Utah...N-Pitt?  N-BYU? @Wyoming?
Bad losses:  @Fresno
At the top, SDSU does have one signature win at home, but unfortunately for them, teams that were supposed to bring quality wins (Pitt, BYU) have fallen back, and they also lost a couple reasonable roadies at U-Dub and Cincy.  Can't call them a lock yet, but they're the one team in reasonable shape unless they pull another Fresno.  Seeding could go in a million different directions, though.

Colorado St (18-3) (6-3) RPI 29 SoS 118
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 5-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SDSU...Boise?  Georgia St?  UTEP?  All at home?  Seriously?
Bad losses:  I suppose @New Mexico and Wyoming, but we're stretching
Gaudy record, marginal SoS, and the conference being down is hurting them.  They won at Colorado, which turned out to not matter all that much.  They scheduled reasonably well in the non-con (Ga State, UTEP, @Colo, Missouri St and UCSB at a neutral), but just didn't get any impact wins.  So while many want to ding them for the lack of signature wins outside of SDSU...the non-con SoS number isn't too bad, and I think they'll be fine with a 2nd place finish in the conference (with a reasonable W-L record to go with that 2nd).  The vital signs are mostly okay.

Wyoming (16-4) (7-2) RPI 81 SoS 226
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 328, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Colorado St....Boise, Colorado, UNLV?
Bad losses:  @Utah St, @Cal?  Nah
No wins over lock teams, and a horrid non-con SoS.  They're in trouble, specifically because this conference is poor.  Usually, 7-2 (projecting out to 14-4) will result in enough quality wins to lock you into the field of 68.  Not this year, though.  And it's going to directly cost Wyoming.  To be fair, they had it coming with their schedule.  Granted, Colorado tanking hurts, but them and New MExico St are the only non-terrible opponents on that schedule.  They messed up.  They have 5 games against RPI 332, 332, 334, 340, and 351!

NIT watch

Boise St (13-6) (5-3) RPI 49 SoS 92 - I can't put them on the bubble.  They did beat CSU and @St Mary's, but losing to Utah St and N-Loyola(Chi), a non-con SoS hovering around 150, 2 top 100 wins...just not enough substance in the profile.
New Mexico (14-7) (6-3) RPI 111 SoS 145 - A very uncharacteristic weak non-con SoS is burying them.  2 top 100 wins means just not enough substance.  Losing to Grand Canyon, BC, and USC ain't helping either.

CBI/CIT watch

UNLV (12-9) (4-5) RPI 108 SoS 83 - Man, it's such a waste of a win over Arizona and N-Temple.  #9 non-con SoS.  So much good mojo here.  But just a couple too many losses.

No postseason

Right now, Utah St and Fresno St are both 5-4 in conference, and if they can maintain that position and stay above .500 overall, they'll have postseason options.  I don't think eithe lasts up there.  Nevada, Air Force, and San Jose St are all below RPI 275, which is helping kill this league this year.