Conference Watch 2/8: western conferences

Southland

The contenders:
Stephen F Austin (16-3) (9-0) RPI 85 SoS 281
Sam Houston St (15-5) (10-1) RPI 100 SoS 241

SFA scheduled up a bit in the non-con, won a couple key games, and lost the majority of them.  The likely result is a 12 seed, same as last year.  Because of course.  Still have to give kudos to them for scheduling up.  They're now in a two-man race with SHSU for the conference title, and SHSU is not going away.  Everyone else has already absorbed three losses, and are probably out of any postseason contention as well.

Big West

Among all the small conferences, the Big West leads everyone but the MAC in conference RPI.  It's a bit (ok, it's a lot) of smoke and mirrors.  It's a combination of ridiculous scheduling by LBSU and UCSB (top 10 non-con SoSs) and piling up gaudy records against horrible schedules (UC-Davis).  It's a fluke.  This conference is a fluke, and probably deserve a 14 seed at this point.

The contenders:
UC Davis (16-4) (8-1) RPI 91 SoS 302
Long Beach St (11-12) (7-2) RPI 81 SoS 49
UC Irvine (12-9) (7-2) RPI 111 SoS 124

These three have gotten away from the rest of the league as UCSB has fallen back (Hawaii has a good enough record for a CBI/CIT bit, at least).  Pinning down Davis' seed in March could be tricky.  Quite tricky.  Because of a horrible, no good non-con SoS.  Everyone still needs to play each other again so this will go down to the wire; Irvine at Davis closes the schedule, by the way.

Big Sky

The contenders:
Sacramento St (14-6) (10-1) RPI 141 SoS 301
Eastern Washington (15-5) (9-1) RPI 59 SoS 202

Obviously, EWU represents the best hope for the conference, and if they send anyone else to the NCAAs, it'll be as a 16 seed.  Pretty cut and dry situation.  Remember, EWU beat Indiana, so they have that signature win for seeding purposes.  Back in the pack, I'm ruling out Montana at 8-3 and Northern Arizona at 7-3 because I can, and also because they're borderline for the CBI/CIT tournament cutline anyways.

WAC

The WAC, once you factor out the SWAC and MEAC, who are usually the bottom 2 conferences...the WAC is the worst conference.  Sorry, New Mexico St.  This is your future.

The contenders:
New Mexico St (13-10) (7-1) RPI 143 SoS 161
Grand Canyon (12-11) (5-3)
UMKC (8-15) (5-3) RPI 295 SoS 305

If I have to list UMKC, you can sense how dire the situation is.  NMSU didn't do a whole lot in the non-con to help their cause, either.  They're probably headed to the 15 line, on name recognition alone.  Awful conference with no remote chance at a postseason at-large bid of any kind.