Conference Watch 2/8: southern conferences

CUSA

They're still harboring those at-large hopes of Old Dominion.  ODU will need help from the rest of the conference to get the league title, though.

The contenders:
Louisiana Tech (17-6) (9-2) RPI 77 SoS 228
Western Kentucky (14-7) (9-2) RPI 99 SoS 122
UAB (12-11) (9-2) RPI 146 SoS 97
UTEP (16-7) (8-3) RPI 83 SoS 135
Old Dominion (18-4) (7-3)

Obviously, ODU in 5th place ain't helping nobody.  LaTech and WKU and UTEP all seem juuust good enough to miss the NIT bubble, but we'll see who wins the conference.  UAB charging has thrown a wrench into this, because their profile is way behind the other 4.

Remember that this conference is loaded and most teams only play each other once.  Among the games left, we have:  ODU@UTEP, UTEP@LT, WKU@ODU, LT@ODU, WKU@UAB.  ODU's got 3 of these games not just to control the conference race, but to enhance the at-large profile.  Their face is very well undecided.  Unfortunately for the conference, UAB has the easiest road to hoe left.  Them beating out all four of these teams would be a disaster for the conference's postseason hopes in general.

These five teams will make the postseason in some form, with Middle Tennessee being a postseason bubble team.

Sun Belt

Georgia St was supposed to be the king of the mid-majors.  They're not going to be the kings of their own conference.

The contenders:
Louisiana-Monroe (12-8) (10-3) RPI 116 SoS 168
Georgia Southern (13-5) (9-3) RPI 112 SoS 274
Georgia St (15-8) (9-4) RPI 84 SoS 152

Remember, there's 20 games in conference play here.  Long way to go, and plenty to decide.  Seems like bad loss avoidance is the key to success.  The winner will likely end up on the 14 line, and these three are postseason shoo-ins with Texas-Arlington being a postseason bubble team.

Big South

My favorite conference race of all time.

The contenders:
High Point (14-7) (8-4) RPI 109 SoS 225
Gardner-Webb (12-9) (8-4) RPI 129 SoS 178
Radford (14-8) (8-4) RPI 137 SoS 252
Coastal Carolina (13-7) (8-4) RPI 150 SoS 276
Charleston Southern (11-9) (8-4) RPI 180 SoS 240
UNC-Asheville (9-11) (8-4) RPI 240 SoS 283
Winthrop (10-10) (8-4) RPI 245 SoS 332

I'm not even going to begin to break this down.  My bracket representative tomorrow, by the way, will be Radford, whose 5-3 mark against these 7 teams is the best.  The top 4 listed here, at least figure to be probable postseason teams of some sort, although everything will probably change.

A-Sun

The numbers say this is the 4th worst conference, and I tend to agree.

The contenders:
FGCU (14-7) (7-1) RPI 128 SoS 249
North Florida (12-10) (7-1) RPI 201 SoS 337

USC-Upstate is 2 games back and might or might not be a postseason team, but for all intents and purposes, only these 2 guys matter.  FGCU might avoid the 16 line; UNF definitely won't.  It's not easy to get excited about either of these teams, frankly.

SWAC

The contenders:
Alabama St (11-6) (9-1)
Southern (8-13) (8-2)
Texas Southern (11-12) (8-2) RPI 164 SoS 209

ASU and SU are ineligible for postseason play.  TSU, after getting signature wins at Michigan St and K-State, have bled twice in conference play to inferior teams, killing their chances of escaping the 16 line.