Conference Watch 2/8: midwestern conferences

MAC

A funny thing happened to the MAC's conference RPI:  they might finish ahead of the Mountain West and MVC.  The trick?  The 3rd easiest schedule in the country, collectively.  The gaudy records everyone built up against horrible schedules are now getting spread around the league, making their power numbers look much better than they deserve to.

The contenders:
Bowling Green (15-5) (7-3) RPI 61 SoS 162
Toledo (15-8) (7-3) RPI 90 SoS 113
Akron (15-7) (7-3) RPI 92 SoS 132
Kent St (15-7) (7-3) RPI 108 SoS 174
Buffalo (15-7) (6-4) RPI 42 SoS 107
Central Michigan (13-5) (6-4) RPI 107 SoS 227

The conference standings were even more crowded awhile go, but we've been able to peel CMU and EMU away as of late (both built up big records against marginal schedules and might be rewarded with a CBI/CIT bid).  I'll be surprised if Toledo doesn't break away to win the West.  The East, however, is wide open, espeically considering Kent St isn't that great and Buffalo was supposed to be the favorite entering conference play.

Let's address Buffalo briefly, because that RPI looks shiny.  The signature win, however, is...South Dakota St?  Pass.  The winner of this league is likely headed to the 12 line because of the overall strength of the conference, unless something funny happens.  What might be more interesting is the NIT bubble.  I'd imagine Buffalo would survive it...Akron and Toledo and Bowling Green?  I think they're all one or two losses too many right now to make it.

Horizon

They're currently 16th in CRPI.  A bit down.  That'll hurt this year.

The contenders:
Cleveland St (13-10) (9-2) RPI SoS RPI 124 SoS 139
Green Bay (17-5) (8-2) RPI 53 SoS 165
Valparaiso (18-4) (8-2) RPI 88 SoS 275
Oakland (10-12) (7-2) RPI 138 SoS 90

Green Bay tried to do their part, but couldn't back up the signature win at Miami.  And everyone else has a fatal flaw.  Don't be fooled by Valpo's W-L, their SoS wasn't good, at all.  Everyone has to play several games against each other still, so this is far from over.  It's looking like no at-large NIT bid, though, which qualifies this league for having a down year.  The depth of the league this is also awful, as evidenced by Oakland being in contention.  Everyone else is worse than them.

OVC

This race is over.

The contenders:
Murray St (19-4) (11-0) RPI 74 SoS 235
Belmont (14-9) (7-4) RPI 133 SoS 214

There's other teams on 7-4 and 6-4 (Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee-Martin, Morehead St, Eastern Illinois), but everyone is 4 back with 5 to play.  Murray's got this.  Murray actually won @Evansville, @MTSU, and WKU.  So this is a likely 12 seed.  Everyone is is jockeying for CBI/CIT position, with most of the teams listed above being the ones in competition for it.  No one has particularly good power numbers, and with the OVC overall being down...no one else would get above a 15 seed, and maybe couldn't even avoid the 16 line.

Summit

This is a two-team race.  And a pretty boring one from a bracketology perspective.

The contenders:
North Dakota St (15-7) (9-2) RPI 154 SoS 313
South Dakota St (16-8) (9-3) RPI 113 SoS 253

I'd be surprised if anyone else contended, let alone be in contention for any CBI/CIT bid.  SDSU might have better computer numbers, but neither has a whole lot of anything going on.