Bubble Watch 2/6: American edition

So tempting to bash this conference.  I'll bite my tongue for now.

The Lockbox

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Bubble

SMU (17-5) (9-2) RPI 27 SoS 67
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Temple...Wyoming?  @Michigan?  oy
Bad losses:  home to Arkansas?
So, last year the SoS keeps them out.  This year....#19 in the country.  Lesson learned!  Unfortunately for them, Michigan tanked, and beating Indiana on the road would've been a big ask...the signature non-con wins are EWU, Wyoming, and Memphis.  Teams backed up on them, and now they don't have a win over a top 40 team.  I think they'll be fine if they continue to avoid bad losses, but since they got swept by Cincy, I think they need to add a few Tulsa/Temple/UConn level wins.  Which I think they'll get with ease.

Cincinnati (16-6) (7-3) RPI 24 SoS 33
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 15, 4-2 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SDSU, swept SMU
Bad losses:  @East Carolina!
Road win looks worse than it is:  sure, they lost at Memphis and Nebraska, but won at SMU and NC State.  The sweep of SMU is a key piece.  This is your standard fare bubble profile which will be fine if they avoid another @ECU.  All the vital signs are good enough to make the profile stand up.

Tulsa (17-4) (10-0) RPI 36 SoS 119
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 98, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Temple, Memphis?
Bad losses:  @Oral Roberts...and...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA STATE
So, um, there's that loss to a non-D1 at home.  That is defcon 0 stuff right there.  Add in another horrible loss and this profile is not good...only 2 top 100 wins too.  This is NOT an at-large team.  However, they have SMU twice coming up, plus Cincy.  So, the rest of this profile is unwritten, but it's off to an awful start.  Forget the 10-0 cofnerence record.  The best wins are UConn at home, Memphis at home, and @Temple.  They still have to go to UConn and Memphis.  If they survive all that, bully to them.  But they have ALL the tough games coming up.  Slow your roll.  The one plus?  Those 8 road/neutral wins.

Temple (16-7) (7-3) RPI 42 SoS 59
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 37, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Kansas(!), N-LaSalle...oh dear
Bad losses:  @St Joe's, N-UNLV
Well, it's pretty clear why they're on the bubble and not off the pace.  Profile is too empty in too many places to survive without more results.  They've already blown 3 chances at the top 3 of the league and need to convert a couple late.

NIT watch

Memphis (14-8) (6-3) RPI 80 SoS 57 - Scheduled up, but lost all the games.  They have 2 top 150 wins.  Two.  They'll be lucky to make the NIT.
UConn (12-9) (5-4) RPI 108 SoS 81 - Actually beat Cincy/Dayton/Florida, so a fighting chance at the NIT here.  7 of the losses are top 50 losses, though.  There's just a couple too many.

CBI/CIT watch

Tulane (12-9) (4-6) RPI 179 SoS 175 - Well, they've separated from a truly awful bottom 4, so I'll give them that.

No postseason

Once again, the bottom of the league is dragging down the top.  Well, it's not as bad this year, I suppose.  The good news is they mostly hung around .500 in non-conference play, but the schedules were just awful (Central Florida, East Carolina, and Houston were main offenders being over 300, while South Florida was at least slightly below average).