Big 12
The Lockbox
Kansas
(22-5) (11-3) RPI 1 SoS 1
Vital
signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 2, 9-5 vs.
Top 50, 13-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 77/19
Signature
wins: Utah, Iowa St, @G’town, a slew of
Big 12 wins
Bad
losses: perhaps @Temple, in context
I want to
point your attention to the avg W/L. As
a reminder, that is the average RPI of the teams Kansas has won and lost
against. The average RPI win is 77. Everyone else is above 100. That is insane. Kansas’ raw SoS is around .6700. The #2 SoS is somewhere around .6200. Those are two insane numbers keeping Kansas
in the 1 line conversation for now.
However, 8-5 road/neutral might be the counterweight.
Iowa St
(20-6) (10-4) RPI 9 SoS 10
Vital
signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 99, 8-4 vs.
Top 50, 11-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 116/53
Signature
wins: Kansas, Arkansas, sweeps of WVU,
OSU, Texas
Bad
losses: @TTU, N-South Carolina
Key games
late: they host both Baylor and
Oklahoma. They might need both to ensure
they’re the second highest Big 12 team to be seeded, and therefore to get the
inside track to the Omaha regional.
Oklahoma
(19-8) (10-5) RPI 16 SoS 15
Vital
signs: 7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 88, 10-4 vs.
Top 50, 10-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 111/60
Signature
wins: Iowa St, N-Butler, Baylor and WVU
Bad losses: @Creighton, swept by K-State
They’ve done
enough to enter the lockbox, with an insane 10 Top 50 wins, including 5 of
those being road/neutral. They’ve done
enough to erase their missteps; now the challenge is seeding. It’s very tight between several teams in this
conference, and the conference tourney may be very useful here. They have just enough questionable losses to
keep them from safely being Big 12 #3.
Games with Kansas and Iowa St do remain, though.
Baylor
(20-7) (8-6) RPI 14 SoS 9
Vital signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 47, 5-5 vs. Top 50, 8-6
vs. Top 100, avg W/L 120/34
Signature
wins: Iowa St, Oklahoma, @WVU
Bad losses: @K-State, N-Illinois?
It’s a
pretty bland profile for a Top 15 RPI team, frankly. They only have two R/N wins inside the top
100 (Memphis is the second). They’ll
make the tournament, but they lack the impact wins. 5 Top 50 is great, but compare them to
everyone else in the conference, and realize it’s lacking a bit. Of course, there’s still time to fix it.
West
Virginia (21-6) (9-5) RPI 24 SoS 49
Vital
signs: 11-3 R/N, non-con SoS 197, 4-5
vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 149/24
Signature
wins: Kansas, @Oklahoma St, Oklahoma
Bad
losses: the worst by far is LSU
A profile
that is good enough to be a lock at this stage, but man, it’s really tough to
argue a high, high seed. The bad loss
avoidance is good, though. Their non-con
SoS is uncomfortably low. And once
again, they still have impact games left so we’ll see.
Bubble
Oklahoma St
(17-10) (7-8) RPI 29 SoS 5
Vital
signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 113, 6-7 vs.
Top 50, 8-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 124/42
Signature
wins: Kansas, swept Baylor, @Tulsa
Bad
losses: @TCU, K-State, and S. Carolina
Not quite
locked because they still have two chances at ugly losses with just 3 games
left in their regular season. They’re
almost out of impact chances (@WVU) to help their seed, so there’s still a bit
of consternation on my end here.
Texas
(17-10) (6-8) RPI 40 SoS 19
Vital
signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 90, 1-9 vs.
Top 50, 4-9 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 160/18
Signature
wins: WVU, N-Iowa, @UConn?
Bad
losses: Stanford at home is by far the
worst
Here’s the
deal: when you play eleventy billion
games against the top teams…you have to win every once in a while. Of course, Cal and @UConn were supposed to be
quality wins, but both fell back. And in
conference, WVU at home is the only time they’ve taken a game off the top 6
teams. Probably definitely need a
second. Another chance at WVU and Baylor
are the ones to watch, assuming Kansas takes care of them.
ACC
The Lockbox
Virginia
(25-1) (13-1) RPI 3 SoS 12
Vital
signs: 11-0 R/N, non-con SoS 23, 6-1 vs.
Top 50, 14-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 106/4
Signature
wins: @Maryland, @UNC, @Notre Dame…
Bad
losses: nope
It’s still
going to take multiple losses for them not to be #2 ovearll.
Duke (24-3)
(11-3) RPI 4 SoS 7
Vital
signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 34, 10-1
vs. Top 50, 15-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 107/48
Signature
wins: @Virginia, @Wisconsin, @Louisville
Bad
losses: Miami, @NC State could be a
killer
They have an
important pair of trump cards if they need it for seeding purposes. They also have a big stable of quality wins
to lean on. I have to imagine, at this
stage, they control their own 1 seed destiny.
I can’t see Gonzaga or Villanova leaping them down the stretch; it’ll
take a Duke mistake to let them in.
Notre Dame
(24-4) (12-3) RPI 27 SoS 107
Vital
signs: 8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 325, 4-4 vs.
Top 50, 8-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 164/16
Signature
wins: Duke, @UNC, Michigan St
Bad
losses: I suppose @Pitt
Many teams
with that non-con SoS get punished hard.
Here’s why I think UND might avoid that:
when they played the tough teams, they split (split with Duke, beat UNC,
lost to Virginia). They did beat MSU and
Purdue in the non-con, and were buried by 5 sub-300 teams in the non-con. They don’t have the volume of wins you’d
like, which makes seeding them very tricky.
On the one hand, if they keep winning, I bet the committee will overlook
the SoS. On the other hand, there’s a
bunch of good teams with much better SoS numbers surrounding them in the
S-Curve. I’m not confident saying
they’re a 3 seed right now, but I can’t budge them off of it at the moment.
North
Carolina (19-8) (9-5) RPI 13 SoS 2
Vital
signs: 9-5 R/N, non-con SoS 12, 3-7 vs. Top
50, 9-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 121/21
Signature
wins: Louisville, N-Ohio St, N-UCLA?
Bad
losses: @Pitt? Iowa?
They’re a
lock, but they’ve lost the chance at a protected seed, it seems. 1-6 vs. teams I project to be top 6 seeds in
March is too poor. Losing to Pitt and
Iowa isn’t awful…unless your second best win is Ohio St. Are they anything more than the good bad team
that just beats the teams they’re supposed to and no one else? I’m not sure.
Louisville
(21-6) (9-5) RPI 19 SoS 31
Vital
signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 132, 5-4 vs.
Top 50, 9-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 138/25
Signature
wins: UNC, N-Indiana, swept Pitt
Bad
losses: @Syracuse? NC State?
A lock
without the impact group of results you need to feel good about your chances at
a protected seed. I don’t have much to
say here.
Bubble
Pittsburgh
(17-10) (7-7) RPI 36 SoS 26
Vital
signs: 4-8 R/N, non-con SoS 127, 2-6 vs.
Top 50, 4-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 145/63
Signature
wins: UNC, Notre Dame, swept Syracuse?
Bad
losses: @VaTech, @Hawaii, Clemson
In the end,
having two signature wins is a big differentiator on the bubble. However, the profile is barren behind it, and
3 of the final 4 games are cupcake-ish.
Oh man, that home game against Miami will be everything for Pitt.
North
Carolina St (16-11) (7-7) RPI 52 SoS 4
Vital
signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 30, 4-7 vs.
Top 50, 7-10 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 134/46
Signature
wins: Duke, @Louisville, Pitt?
Bad
losses: Clemson, @Wake
Too many
losses. @Purdue, @Miami, Wofford,
Cincy…no single loss there is awful, but it’s the collection that hurts, and
keeps them very much in danger. 2 great
signature wins are helping, along with that SoS, but everything else in this
profile screams at them being right on the cutline. One nasty game at UNC awaits, but 3 must-wins
lurk behind it.
Miami
(17-10) (7-7) RPI 67 SoS 66
Vital signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 198, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 6-6
vs. Top 100, avg W/L 168/65
Signature
wins: @Duke, NC State and Illinois at
home?
Bad
losses: EKU, @Wake, GaTech, @FSU
Too many bad
losses and not enough depth in the quality win profile. These two things along with the non-con SoS
tell me they’re out as of today. With
UNC and @Pitt left, they’ve got to get at least 1 of those to help rectify the
profile problems – losing both might leave too big a hole.
If you’re
curious, Syracuse would probably barely be on the tail end of this bubble,
clearly behind the other 3 bubble teams.
Big 10
The Lockbox
Wisconsin
(25-2) (13-1) RPI 6 SoS 22
Vital
signs: 11-1 R/N, non-con SoS 17, 5-1 vs.
Top 50, 13-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 107/80
Signature
wins: N-Oklahoma, N-G’town, Indiana
Bad
losses: @Rutgers
The loss to
Duke could hurt in a head-to-head seeding battle. They definitely would wish the Big 10
would’ve given them more signature win chances, because it is hurting their
chances right now for the 1 line.
Maryland is coming, though.
Maryland
(22-5) (10-4) RPI 11 SoS 33
Vital
signs: 6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 70, 5-3 vs.
Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 135/38
Signature
wins: N-Iowa St, swept Michigan St,
@Oklahoma St
Bad
losses: I suppose @Iowa and @Illinois
No bad
losses, more or less split all their games against tourney-level teams. Pretty standard profile of a 4 seed, give or
take a seed line.
Indiana
(19-9) (9-6) RPI 33 SoS 35
Vital
signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 135, 5-6 vs.
Top 50, 8-9 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 152/36
Signature
wins: Maryland, SMU, N-Butler
Bad
losses: EWU at home
This might
be an aggressive lock, but I can’t see Indiana screwing this up. 3 good, solid wins anchor the profile. Sure, splitting with OSU and getting swept by
Purdue hurts. But that’ll impact seeding
at this point. There’s too much profile
foundation already built to prevent this house from falling apart.
Bubble
Michigan St
(19-8) (10-4) RPI 28 SoS 34
Vital
signs: 8-5 R/N, non-con SoS 60, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 139/48
Signature
wins: Indiana, OSU, @Iowa
Bad
losses: Texas Southern(!), @Nebraska
Remember,
this team’s signature non-con win is Loyola(Chi). Oy.
All the work they’ve done is inside the conference, which is good enough
for the time being. They are 0-5 against
probable top 5 seeds.
Ohio St
(19-8) (8-6) RPI 43 SoS 82
Vital
signs: 3-7 R/N, non-con SoS 225, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 165/43
Signature
wins: Maryland, Indiana, Illinois?
Bad
losses: @Michigan, @Purdue
Hrm. Poor road/neutral, and their best such win is
Minnesota. Not encouraging, and throwing
in the non-con SoS, this is a troubling profile. Getting swept by Iowa, splitting with
Indiana…have they done enough against the midsection of the conference? Not yet, and they have 3 mostly useless games
and Wisconsin to close. Yikes. Must hold serve at all costs until the Wisky
game.
Iowa (17-10)
(8-6) RPI 55 SoS 30
Vital
signs: 5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 120, 4-6 vs.
Top 50, 6-9 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 159/46
Signature
wins: @UNC, Maryland, swept OSU
Bad
losses: @Northwestern, Minnesota
Two
signature wins are standing out from the rest of the profile. Every other vital signs screams bubble to me,
but with two big wins in tow, it’s tough to find a fatal flaw. Of course, there’s plenty of flaws still to
be found, with marginal losses, average SoS numbers, and average everything
else. It’s probably more about bad loss
avoidance for this profile at this stage.
Illinois
(17-10) (7-7) RPI 58 SoS 54
Vital
signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 161, 3-6 vs.
Top 50, 5-9 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 161/53
Signature
wins: Maryland, @Michigan St, N-Baylor
Bad
losses: @everywhere…Nebraska, Minnesota,
Michigan, etc
Well,
another typical bubble profile. Just
enough good wins to convince everyone you’re good enough, and just enough
marginal road losses to knock you out of the tournament. This profile seems pre-destined to be one of
the last ones in or out. Every single
vital sign is marginal. With @Iowa and
@Purdue still in their schedule, odds are they gotta get one.
Purdue
(18-9) (10-4) RPI 61 SoS 71
Vital
signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 226, 3-3 vs.
Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 139/87
Signature
wins: swept Indiana, OSU and Iowa at
home?
Bad
losses: UNF, Gardner-Webb, @Vandy,
N-K-State, @Minny?
Good lord,
those losses. And the wins are okay but
not inspiring. But they’re hot, and it’s
the one trait that has them firmly on the bubble. The non-con SoS is a red flag if they try to
cut it close to the cutline. The
good/bad news? They close with @OSU,
@MSU, Illinois. They’ll sink or swim
right then and there. We’ll know which
way the profile falls, soon.
Pac-12
The Lockbox
Arizona
(24-3) (12-2) RPI 7 SoS 39
Vital
signs: 9-3 R/N, non-con SoS 65, 6-0 vs.
Top 50, 13-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 111/95
Signature
wins: Gonzaga, Utah, N-SDSU
Bad
losses: @Oregon St, @UNLV
Those 3
marginal road losses will cost them the 1 line, almost assuredly at this
point. The other contenders are breaking
away from them. They’ll be fine on the 2
line, but if Gonzaga is also a 2 seed, they may be shipped out east. The fun part?
If they let Gonzaga beat them, Gonzaga would be on the 1 line and
Arizona could be the #2 out west. So
beating Gonzaga didn’t help their seed AND caused them to travel across the
country. Hah.
Utah (20-5)
(11-3) RPI 10 SoS 38
Vital
signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 26, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 9-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 141/25
Signature
wins: Wichita St, UCLA, Stanford
Bad
losses: @Oregon and @UCLA are the worst
All 5 losses
are roadies, and the best road win they have is @BYU. Not the most overwhelming resume for a
possible 3 seed, but it’ll have to do.
Losing to Kansas and Zona and SDSU on the road is fine; they probably
needed to split those other 2 to feel good about the 3 line. But this is first world problems for Utah.
Bubble
Oregon
(19-8) (10-5) RPI 44 SoS 59
Vital
signs: 3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 115, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 8-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 141/53
Signature
wins: Utah, UCLA, N-Illinois?
Bad
losses: @Wazzu, @Washington
One truly
signature win, a couple decent ones, and enough marginal losses to leave them
in big trouble. Their road game at
Stanford might be everything. I couldn’t
get excited about this profile, at all, a couple weeks ago. Just getting the Utah win gets them into the
workable phase of the bubble.
Stanford
(17-9) (8-6) RPI 51 SoS 64
Vital
signs: 5-7 R/N, non-con SoS 85, 2-5 vs.
Top 50, 8-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 150/66
Signature
wins: @Texas, uh…Wofford?
Bad
losses: @DePaul, @Wazzu, @Colorado
One good
win, and a whole lotta nothing elsewhere in the profile. They have 6 wins in between RPI 82 and
98. So the depth that seems to be there
in the quality win pile actually isn’t.
Uh oh. The good news is they can
win at Arizona to fix everything. The
bad news is, they’re Arizona. Getting
swept by UCLA is also problematic.
UCLA (16-12)
(8-7) RPI 47 SoS 16
Vital
signs: 3-10 R/N, non-con SoS 46, 2-7 vs.
Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 149/49
Signature
wins: Utah, Oregon, swept Stanford
Bad
losses: @Colorado, @Cal,
@eveywhere. Alabama, OSU, ASU…
Reminder: 6 of the 12 losses are inside the RPI top 16,
and they did beat Utah. So even if you
write those 6 losses off, you still have 6 road losses from RPI 44 to 126, with
one road win at Stanford mixed in. No
depth whatsoever in this profile. And
they’re done with road games and have 3 relative cupcakes left. MUST.
HOLD.
SEC
The Lockbox
Kentucky
(27-0) (14-0) RPI 2 SoS 21
Vital
signs: 10-0 R/N, non-con SoS 10, 10-0
vs. Top 50, 17-0 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 101/potato
Signature
wins: N-Kansas, @Louisville, UNC
Bad
losses: no
Next.
Arkansas
(22-5) (11-3) RPI 20 SoS 78
Vital
signs: 6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 41, 5-2 vs.
Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 148/57
Signature
wins: @SMU, @Ole Miss, Dayton
Bad
losses: @Tennessee, @Clemson
A couple
marginal road losses aside, they’ve done enough. Getting a high seed may be a trickier trick
to pull off, though. The SEC is better,
but with many bubble teams, wins over the likes of Georgia and Ole Miss are
good but not great. Still, they have a
good SoS and generally solid vital signs.
They’ll be fine.
Bubble
Ole Miss
(19-8) (10-4) RPI 32 SoS 46
Vital
signs: 10-3 R/N, non-con SoS 97, 4-4 vs.
Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 148/69
Signature
wins: @Arkansas, @Oregon, N-Cincy
Bad
losses: Charleston Southern, TCU, both
at home!
Man, there’s
some stinkers of some losses there. The
good news is they’ve won enough against the legit teams on the schedule to be
in workable bubble shape. @Arkansas is a
good trump card if they need it. 10 R/N
wins, which include the 3 above, are mega-huge right now. They’ve got bubble games to navigate against
Georgia and LSU, and if they get by them…
Georgia
(17-9) (8-6) RPI 37 SoS 40
Vital
signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 2-3 vs.
Top 50, 6-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 132/69
Signature
wins: Ole Miss, @A&M…Seton Hall?
Bad
losses: Auburn, @GaTech, S. Carolina
According to
my count, they are 2-4 against bubble-or-better teams, 0-4 against the toughest
4 of those games. Not good. The schedule had a bunch of misses – Seton
Hall, K-State, Colorado were all victories that have now melted in their
hands. They do have 10 wins in between
RPI 71 and 126, which does have more value than you think. If we don’t count Kentucky, their one impact
game left is at Ole Miss. There’s your
chance, Georgia.
LSU (19-8)
(8-6) RPI 54 SoS 85
Vital
signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 180, 4-4 vs.
Top 50, 10-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 145/91
Signature
wins: @WVU, @Ole Miss, Georgia?
Bad
losses: @Mizzou, @Mississippi St, Auburn
3 losses
outside the top 125 are just killer, because most of the vital signs, while not
great, are workable. They have enough
wins (just) to lean on if they are right on the cutline, but those losses (and
getting swept by A&M) are killer.
This is a bubble profile that will go down to the wire.
Texas
A&M (19-7) (10-4) RPI 34 SoS 77
Vital
signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 140, 0-5 vs.
Top 50, 7-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 164/43
Signature
wins: swept LSU…@Tennessee?
Bad
losses: N-K-State, @Bama
You need a
win over a tourney team to make it eventually.
Only one chance left, at Arkansas, then you have 3 mines to dodge. Outlook is pretty cloudy here. How did they get the shiny SEC record
though? They avoided the catastrophic
losses the 3 teams above took.
Big East
The Lockbox
Villanova
(25-2) (12-2) RPI 5 SoS 29
Vital
signs: 11-2 R/N, non-con SoS 51, 8-1 vs.
Top 50, 13-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 108/46
Signature
wins: N-VCU, @Provi, swept Butler
Bad
losses: @Seton Hall isn’t so hot right
now
Nothing they
can really do but keep on winning and waiting for teams ahead to mess up,
frankly. I’m not sure how much they can
move up on their own accord anymore.
Providence
(19-8) (9-5) RPI 22 SoS 13
Vital
signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 6-5 vs.
Top 50, 10-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 101/85
Signature
wins: swept G’town, @Butler, N-Notre
Dame
Bad
losses: Brown, @BC, @Marquette
Man, Brown
at home! But 5 top 30 wins, all over
probable tourney teams, and I think they’ve just done enough to lock in
now. I don’t like getting swept by St
John’s, and seeding can still be quite variable, but the vital signs are too
strong at this point to not lock in.
Butler
(19-8) (9-5) RPI 23 SoS 17
Vital
signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 67, 5-7 vs.
Top 50, 7-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 129/27
Signature wins: N-UNC, N-G’town, Xavier
Bad
losses: @Tennessee
Only one
loss that’s even remotely bad. The
sweeps of St John’s and Seton Hall seemed better at the time. They still host Georgetown and go to Provi,
so some of the vital signs can be touched up.
If they lose a bunch? I think the
SoS would just save them at this point, along with a couple trump cards on a
neutral court. Seeding can still be
variable, though.
Georgetown
(18-8) (10-5) RPI 21 SoS 3
Vital
signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 9, 4-8 vs.
Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 128/17
Signature
wins: Villanova, Butler, N-Indiana
Bad
losses: none
All 8 losses
inside the top 30. No bad losses in this
environment means just about a lock right now.
Sure, they could’ve won more, avoid getting swept by Xavier and Provi,
etc etc. And they lost 6 of their 7 toughest R/N games. Wait, am I talking myself out of this lock?
Bubble
Xavier
(18-10) (8-7) RPI 30 SoS 18
Vital
signs: 5-8 R/N, non-con SoS 38, 5-4 vs.
Top 50, 9-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 104/74
Signature
wins: swept G’town, @Cincy, Provi
Bad
losses: @DePaul, Creighton, @Auburn
They
finished 4-2 against the 3 teams right ahead of them in this post. That’s good, because 4 sub-100 losses keep
them from being a lock right now and they need profile help. One hidden key: did beat SFA, Murray, and FGCU, 3 probable
conference champions. Two roadies at St
John’s and Creighton…boy I’d feel a lot better with both, not just 1 of 2 there,
X.
St John’s
(18-9) (7-7) RPI 46 SoS 32
Vital
signs: 4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 61, 3-6 vs.
Top 50, 7-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 138/48
Signature
wins: swept Provi, @Xavier
Bad
losses: @DePaul, @Creighton
Eh. They’re probably in right now; they could
fall out; they have all the typical deficiencies and advantages of a bubble
team. There’s no new ground to tread in
this resume. We will wait and see. They host X and G’town coming up, so a split
seems inevitable and likely.
AAC
The Lockbox
SMU (21-5)
(13-2) RPI 18 SoS 60
Vital
signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 14, 3-5 vs.
Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 160/32
Signature
wins: swept Temple, @Tulsa
Bad
losses: all inside the top 50
An
aggressive lock on my end, but I can’t see them falling all the way back at
this point. Non-con SoS inside the top
15 is the magic elixir. Seeding might be
an issue if they lose a couple, and I think I’m hanging them back to the 6 line
now, but still. Lock.
Bubble
Temple
(19-9) (10-5) RPI 31 SoS 44
Vital
signs: 7-7 R/N, non-con SoS 39, 2-7 vs.
Top 50, 6-7 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 175/51
Signature
wins: Kansas, Cincy…@UConn?
Bad
losses; @St Joe’s, N-UNLV
How long can
they make the Kansas win hold up?
Getting swept by Tulsa and SMU…they really needed one of those 4. Right now, they’re kind of stuck without the
profile depth they need to be comfortable on the bubble. This is a profile that will likely come down
to the wire, but they gotta get through the regular season without losing again
first.
Cincinnati
(18-9) (9-5) RPI 49 SoS 53
Vital
signs: 5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 4-4 vs.
Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 153/90
Signature
wins: swept SMU, SDSU, @NC State
Bad
losses: @ECU, Tulane, @Nebraska
As always,
when you have both good wins and bad losses, the level of your good wins
determines how safe you are. SMU 2x and
SDSU are pretty good, relative to the rest of the field. There’s plenty of worry left on the board,
but probably safe for the time being.
@Tulsa late is the swing game for them between safety and harm.
Tulsa (19-6)
(12-2) RPI 39 SoS 106
Vital
signs: 8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 102, 2-4 vs.
Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100, , avg W/L 186/57
Signature
wins: swept Temple, Memphis and UConn?
Bad
losses: @Oral Bob...AT HOME TO A NON D-1
Can they
really survive Southeastern Oklahoma State?
They still have @Memphis, Cincy, @SMU. This bubble profile is really just beginning
to develop and will reshape radically around those 3 games. Hold your thoughts on them for a couple of
weeks.
A-10
The Lockbox
VCU (21-6)
(11-3) RPI 12 SoS 14
Vital
signs: 10-3 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 4-3 vs.
Top 50, 11-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 125/58
Signature
wins: UNI, N-Oregon, @Cincy
Bad
losses: @St Bonaventure, LaSalle
They wobbled
a bit, but straightened things out well enough.
Should be safe, in large part due to that shiny 1 next to non-con
SoS. That’s the magic bullet. The committee will eat that up. Now, seeding is another issue, and 4 losses
to non-tourney teams will be a problem to be dealt with at the appropriate
time.
Bubble
Dayton
(20-6) (10-4) RPI 35 SoS 119
Vital
signs: 6-6 R/N, non-con SoS 96, 2-2 vs.
Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 172/88
Signature
wins: Ole Miss, N-A&M
Bad
losses: @Duquesne, @GWU is looking worse
All losses
are road/neutral, and the next pure road win is St Bonaventure. Therein lies your resume weakness. They’ve got one game at VCU that won’t hurt
them, so holding in the other 3 remaining games might be enough at this
point. A pair of decent trump cards over
the SEC might be useful.
Davidson
(18-6) (10-4) RPI 57 SoS 131
Vital
signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 217, 2-3 vs.
Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 191/70
Signature
wins: Dayton, @UMass?
Bad
losses: @St Joe’s, St Bonaventure
There’s not
a lot going on here. Which means the
@URI/GWU/VCU stretch coming up is good timing.
All the opportunities in the world are staring this team in the face. Go get it.
Rhode Island
(18-6) (11-3) RPI 63 SoS 142
Vital
signs: 7-5 R/N, non-con SoS 200, 1-3 vs.
Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 187/63
Signature
wins: UMass, @Richmond? Yikes
Bad
losses: @St Joe’s, N-GaTech
Not much
going on here. One saving grace: Davidson and @Dayton remain on the
schedule. 2 quality win chances will
give them the boost they need to be competitive on the bubble. It’s up to them.
WCC
The Lockbox
Gonzaga
(27-1) (16-0) RPI 8 SoS 76
Vital
signs: 13-1 R/N, non-con SoS 15, 4-1 vs.
Top 50, 8-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 143/7
Signature
wins: SMU, N-Georgia, @UCLA
Bad
losses: null
Go look at
the non-con SoS, then tell me there’s a problem. Go ahead.
I dare you. The simple fact is
this: they have no more access to
signature wins. A lot of other teams
do. Their chances at a 1 seed have
almost nothing to do with them. We
simply have to play it by ear and see how the other teams do.
Bubble
BYU (21-8)
(11-5) RPI 59 SoS 92
Vital
signs: 6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 18, 1-3 vs.
Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 171/78
Signature
wins: Stanford, St Mary’s and
UMass? Seriously?
Bad
losses: @San Diego, swept by Pepperdine
The
road/neutral thing is a serious issue.
They best road win is Utah St.
That’s it. They lost 5 R/N games
tougher than that. The signature win is
not very signature. They lost at St
Mary’s, to Purdue on a neutral, and 3 tougher ones. They just need a bigger impact win than what
they’ve got. Fortunately for them, they
still have a Gonzaga regular season game in the hopper.
St Mary’s
(19-7) (12-4) RPI 53 SoS 90
Vital
signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 89, 0-4 vs.
Top 50, 2-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 175/70
Signature
wins: BYU, and holy crap the other Top
100 win is at 99
Bad
losses: Northern Arizona, Pepperdine
This is a
charity listing. They went 1-3 against
Gonzaga/BYU, which isn’t terrible. But
by losing @St John’s and Boise in the non-con, they have nothing left but
Northeastern and NMSU buffering that end of the profile. And that’s just not enough. They did do a reasonably good job of building
a good non-con SoS but just couldn’t get impact wins with it (and had the one
marginal loss to NAU).
Mountain West
The Lockbox
San Diego St
(21-6) (12-3) RPI 25 SoS 80
Vital
signs: 7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 52, 3-4 vs.
Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 167/71
Signature
wins: Utah, CSU, N-Pitt
Bad
losses: @Fresno, @Washington
An
aggressive lock, but I’ll be shocked if they lose enough to bring the bubble
into play. A couple marginal road
losses, kinda offset by neutral wins over Pitt and BYU and on the road at
Wyoming (again, kinda). Flaws are
visible, but a signature win over Utah saves the profile a bit. They’re not going to get the seed they’re
hoping for, though. 6 or 7?
Bubble
Colorado St
(22-5) (10-5) RPI 26 SoS 97
Vital
signs: 9-4 R/N, non-con SoS 103, 2-2 vs.
Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 174/76
Signature
wins: SDSU, Boise and UTEP at home?
Bad
losses: @New Mexico, swept by Wyoming
aren’t awful but aren’t great
Good R/N
record, just on good win, no horrible losses.
Adds up to a bubble team to me.
The margin of error is low, but I think this type of profile will get
rewarded by the committee in the end.
They haven’t given a slam-dunk reason to be left out yet, which is
vital. They do need to hold serve for a
couple more weeks, though.
Boise St
(18-7) (10-4) RPI 41 SoS 110
Vital
signs: 9-6 R/N, non-con SoS 169, 2-2 vs.
Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 192/95
Signature
wins: SDSU, CSU, @St Mary’s
Bad
losses: @Fresno, Utah St, N-Loyola(Chi)
One
mega-ginormous signature win chance is still on the table @SDSU. Without it, they’re right around the
bubble. Compared to CSU, they have one
or two more bad losses, a worse non-con SoS by a modest margin, and slightly
worse vital signs across the board. Not
the greatest position. They do have the
one semi-decent road win to lean on, I guess.
MVC
The Lockbox
Northern
Iowa (26-2) (15-1) RPI 17 SoS 138
Vital
signs: 12-2 R/N, non-con SoS 105, 1-1
vs. Top 50, 7-1 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 183/61
Signature
wins: Wichita, N-Iowa, @SFA
Bad
losses: @Evansville
Their seed
feels very variable. More because of the
teams around them. They can still add
another signature win or two, but it feels like teams ranked around them will
have the chance to win their way past UNI on the S-Curve. A probable protected seed seems likely,
still, but they’re pretty tough to pin down right now.
Wichita St
(24-3) (15-1) RPI 15 SoS 104
Vital
signs: 11-3 R/N, non-con SoS 27, 1-2 vs.
Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 170/40
Signature
wins: oh, dear. Seton Hall, Tulsa, @Memphis?
Bad
losses: N-George Washington is getting
ugly
So the
non-con schedule had Tulsa, Seton Hall, Alabama, Memphis, New Mexico St, and
the Diamond Head tourney with Colorado and Nebraska. The schedule then promptly turned around and
took a dump all over Wichita’s resume.
This seed will be all about the eye test.
CUSA
Bubble
Old Dominion
(20-6) (9-5) RPI 48 SoS 133
Vital
signs: 5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 58, 1-0 vs.
Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100, avg W/L 182/137
Signature
wins: VCU, N-LSU
Bad
losses: @UTSA, @MTSU, @UAB, @WKU
Losing road
record. Best road win is…Charlotte. 5 road losses against teams better than
Charlotte. It’s a pretty simple bubble
case to diagnose. It’s a shame because
they were going so well for so long. I
won’t kill them off just yet because they beat LaTech, but they need help
elsewhere to make it all the way back to the cutline.
Best teams
not to get a bubble look:
UMass –
despite a top 40 RPI, too many body blows (11 losses) to be taken seriously
Buffalo –
somehow has a top 50 RPI despite being 2 back in the MAC East race
Iona – top
50 RPI, has occasionally snuck into the bubble picture in the past, but the
MAAC is too weak this year to support a bid
Wofford –
gave them a chance, absorbed too many bad losses, which is a shame
Harvard – 2
sub-200 losses. Can’t do it
UTEP, Green
Bay, Valparaiso, George Washington, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, UConn, Wyoming,
Clemson, Murray St, Stephen F Austin, Seton Hall could all probably make an
argument for being on the board in some form, but I can’t find a convincing
reason to do it.
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