What a mess behind Wisconsin.
The Lockbox
Wisconsin (19-2) (7-1) RPI 8 SoS 22
Vital signs: 9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 21, 3-1 vs. Top 50, 10-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-G'town and Oklahoma, swept Iowa
Bad losses: @Rutgers
The B1G will actually cost Wisky a 1 seed. They need more depth in their quality win stack in order to become a 1 seed...and the conference isn't supplying it to them right now. It's really the only "flaw" on their resume, too. Such a shame. Those road games at Cal and Marquette are disintegrating into nothing, too. Bad luck more than anything is going to cost this team the 1 line.
Maryland (18-4) (6-3) RPI 17 SoS 42
Vital signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 103, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Iowa St, swept Michigan St, @Oklahoma St
Bad losses: @Illinois
I can't call road losses at Indiana or OSU sins, and they're winning enough away from home (4 top 100 R/N wins). There's no fatal flaw in this resume. It's just a matter of how high a seed is coming.
Bubble
Indiana (16-6) (6-3) RPI 33 SoS 41
Vital signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 139, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 7-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Butler, Maryland, SMU
Bad losses: EWU at home is still kinda bad, @Purdue?
They're probably a half-step behind Maryland, as their bad losses are a little worse, their signature wins are a little worse, the SoS is a little worse, the record vs. Top 50/100 is slightly worse...you get the idea. Their non-con SoS has a few anchors on it, so I'm not as worried about that number as some might be.
Ohio St (17-5) (6-3) RPI 35 SoS 71
Vital signs: 2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 205, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Maryland, Indiana...@Minnesota?
Bad losses: does getting swept by Iowa count? Nah
So, that non-con SoS is magnified by not having a top 100 RPI team on the schedule. Mostly poor scheduling to go along with a Marquette tank job. Playing a bunch of poor opponents along with UNC and Louisville left them with a gaudy record, no actual good wins, and 2 good losses. That's a profile with empty calories. They should be fine, but going 1-3 against Indiana and Iowa mean that they don't have a lot of games left against impact teams (just 1x against Michigan St and Wisky), so they're going to have a lot of "hold serve" games coming up. Gotta hold serve.
Michigan St (15-7) (6-3) RPI 37 SoS 32
Vital signs: 5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 60, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Iowa...Indiana...uh oh
Bad losses: Texas Southern, @Nebraska?
There's nothing in the non-con that will help them. No signature wins. Sure, you played Notre Dame and Kansas and Duke, and lost to 'em all, and that's okay. But after getting swept by Maryland, you're all of a sudden very light on signature wins. The rest of the profile is good enough to survive if you beat enough Indianas and Iowas, but that's not a comfortable path to the tournament. There's really no red alarm hidden in the vital signs, at least yet.
Iowa (13-8) (4-4) RPI 55 SoS 20
Vital signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 114, 3-6 vs. Top 50, 4-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @UNC, swept Ohio St
Bad losses: @Purdue is the worst
It's good they got UNC...they lost a lot of marquee games (2x Wisky, Iowa St, N-UNI, N-Texas, et al). I think they'll be fine if they just avoid bad losses, which might be tricky because there's minefields in the rest of this schedule. This profile will change and keep changing every game.
Illinois (14-8) (4-5) RPI 64 SoS 63
Vital signs: 4-7 R/N, non-con SoS 150, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Baylor, Maryland
Bad losses: @everywhere...Nebraska, Minny, N-Oregon, on and on...
The two signature wins are saving them right now. They've done diddly poo on the road, and they might have already given away too many of those chances. Hanging on for dear life.
Michigan (12-9) (6-4) RPI 71 SoS 18
Vital signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 42, 0-6 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Illinois and Syracuse, lol
Bad losses; EMU, NJIT
This is almost courtesy than anything else. Barely on this bubble. They need a signature win, badly, and they're running out of chances. Only the niceness in my heart is saving them.
NIT watch
Purdue (14-8) (6-3) RPI 79 SoS 65 - They did beat Indiana and Iowa at home...the same place they lost to Gardner-Webb and North Florida at. Pass for now. Get a signature win and they may have a chance...oh wait they're done with Wisky and Maryland for the year. Dagger.
Minnesota (13-9) (3-7) RPI 91 SoS 70 - Way too far off the pace, and none of the vital signs are good. Frankly, the NIT is very missable from here.
CBI/CIT watch
Penn St (14-8) (2-7) RPI 100 SoS 116 - Their overall W-L record is hanging in there, but they're nowhere near NIT caliber.
Nebraska (12-9) (4-5) RPI 110 SoS 85 - I can't believe they've fallen this far. They actually have a pretty bad SoS.
No postseason
As far as 13th and 14th place teams go, Northwestern and Rutgers aren't that bad.
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