Talk about top-heavy. The top 5 are all 3 seeds or higher in my S-Curve right now. Do you know what this means? Signature wins are available for just about everyone in the conference. They should claw to 7 bids in the end. We'll dissect it in greater detail below.
The Lockbox
Virginia (20-1) (8-1) RPI 3 SoS 8
Vital signs: 10-0 R/N, non-con SoS 19, 5-1 vs. Top 50, 11-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @VCU, @UNC, @Maryland...4 road wins against the top 50!
Bad losses: Duke could be a tiebreaker-related problem
Pretty clear #2 resume, what with all those road wins. Don't get cute and say anyone else should be #2 right now.
Duke (18-3) (5-3) RPI 5 SoS 6
Vital signs: 9-2 R/N, non-con SoS 27, 8-1 vs. Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Virginia, @Wisky, @Louisville
Bad losses: home to Miami?
Duke's best home win? Wofford. Hah. Their wins, when stacked against Virginia's, is actually a little bit better. The issue is they dropped two games they shouldn't have, against a similar SoS. Still, they have some big wins in hand that will be useful for claiming a 1 seed.
Louisville (19-3) (7-2) RPI 12 SoS 40
Vital signs: 7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 88, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 9-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: UNC, N-Indiana, Ohio St?
Bad losses: absolutely not
3 Top 50 wins might be low for a 1 or 2 seed, so that might be an issue if that's something UL really hopes they'll get. Other than that, there's obviously no weakness in this profile, just a lack of strength that usually shows up in top 8 profiles.
North Carolina (17-6) (7-3) RPI 10 SoS 2
Vital signs: 8-3 R/N, non-con SoS 9, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 9-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Louisville, N-Ohio St...N-Davidson?
Bad losses: I suppose at home to Iowa isn't great
They're a lock, as they have a good pocket collection of wins (N-UCLA, @NC St, Syracuse, N-Florida, et al) behind those signature wins. I do wish they could've won swing games against N-Butler and Notre Dame to even the profile out a bit more, to make my job easier. But in reality they've won more than enough against an elite schedule, and those losses will end up mostly negligible. I'm not sure they can make it to the 2 line without some significant gains, though.
Notre Dame (20-3) (8-2) RPI 28 SoS 104
Vital signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 320, 4-2 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Duk, @UNC, Michigan St
Bad losses: I suppose @Pitt
That non-con SoS is a problem. Now, to be fair, they had Michigan St, UMass, and Purdue. They also had a lot, and I mean a lot, of RPI killers as well. If they were a bubble team, their SoS would be a significant problem. But they're 2-1 so far against the Top 5 of the ACC, which makes it moot. Seeding could still be widely variant, though.
Bubble
Miami (14-8) (4-5) RPI 61 SoS 58
Vital signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 188, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Duke...@Syracuse? NC State?
Bad losses: home to EKU, @Florida St, home to Ga Tech...hoo boy
Imagine where this profile would be without that Duke win. They still have 2 signature win chances (@Louisville, UNC) on the board, and even if they win all the other games, they might need one more signature win to offset some of the damage.
North Carolina St (14-10) (5-6) RPI 62 SoS 7
Vital signs: 2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 34, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 6-9 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Duke, Pitt? Tennessee?
Bad losses: @Wake, Clemson, and just too many in general
That road/neutral record might be an issue; the road wins are GaTech and FSU. The SoS is a shining star on this profile, and will help erase some of the sins. Losing to WVU and Cincy and Wofford aren't good, but they don't hurt as badly when they come as part of the #7 SoS. They have 3 more games against the top of this league; they gotta get one, in all likelihood. And they absolutely have to hold serve in their other games. They're out of those mulligans.
Syracuse (15-7) (6-3) RPI 69 SoS 79
Vital signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 81, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 3-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Iowa, uh...
Bad losses: N-Cal, @Clemson
Pretty simpl case. They need signature wins. If they get them, they're in the discussion. If they don't, they're nowhere close. And look at that schedule, OHMYGOD. Pitt 2x, Duke 2x, hosting Louisville and Virginia, at NC State. The whole world is in front of this team. Analysis of them right now is useless.
Pittsburgh (15-8) (4-5) RPI 73 SoS 62
Vital signs: 3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 132, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 2-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Notre Dame, N-K-State?
Bad losses: @Hawaii, @VaTech, Clemson
This profile is a Notre Dame win away from the NIT bubble, not the NCAA bubble. Check out this run of schedule, back-to-back: Syracuse, @Louisville, UNC, @Virginia, @Syracuse. We'll know everything after those games.
NIT watch
Clemson (13-8) (5-4) RPI 81 SoS 53 - I suppose I'm mean for leaving them a section below the above teams, but just can't quite do it. Need better wins than Arky and N-LSU. Opportunities are coming, at least.
CBI/CIT watch
These tournaments are beneath the ACC.
No postseason
The bottom five are not good enough to be even close to any postseason, and will all be beat up by the rest of the conference, who needs to hold serve in these games. Florida St is the one team that's disappointed a bit. Wake Forest has somehow stolen 3 conference games already, though. Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech have won only once apiece and are mostly cooperating with the rest of the conference right now.
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