It really feels like we're careening towards 7 teams in this league. It's just a matter of seeding, which can still be widely variant.
The Lockbox
Kansas (18-3) (7-1) RPI 1 SoS 1
Vital signs: 7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 2, 7-3 vs. Top 50, 11-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Utah, @Baylor, @Georgetown, 4 other R/N top 100s
Bad losses: @Temple looks more and more marginal by the day
The SoS is the key number here, as the committee usually gobbles that kind of stuff up. That's one leg up on most teams in the race for the 1 line. That one marginal loss isn't great, but it looks like most teams competing for the 1 line will have a similar loss on their board (Duke does, for example). Did you know Kansas has not played a team that has an RPI above 161, and that's Texas Tech?
Iowa St (16-4) (6-2) RPI 13 SoS 31
Vital signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 130, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Kansas, @WVU, Arkansas and @Iowa are the non-con ones
Bad losses: @TTU looks horrible, and N-South Carolina is looking bad now
I've tentatively put them on the 3 line; the win over Kansas being the edge. They don't need to get the other half of the series, but I do think they need a clear 2nd place in this conference to keep that 3 seed. Too many of the vital signs are just not quite good enough (gotta get above .500 R/N, and 130 is a decent but not great SoS non-con number).
Bubble
West Virginia (18-3) (6-2) RPI 20 SoS 70
Vital signs: 10-1 R/N, non-con SoS 184, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Oklahoma, N-NC State, @K-State?
Bad losses: I suppose home to LSU
4 Top 100 wins. It should be obvious why I can't quite call WVU a lock right now. So how did they get to 6-2 in conference? 4 of those are TCU and TTU, and the 5th was K-State. They're done with them. The hard work is left (to be fair, they DID take care of business). They have a BRUTAL schedule coming up, so buckle in. They do get a gold star for the R/N record, though.
Baylor (16-5) (4-4) RPI 16 SoS 13
Vital signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 72, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Iowa St, Oklahoma, Texas...
Bad losses: I suppose @K-State and N-Illinois
The theme here is road/home splits. They're beating all the conference teams at home (except Kansas) and losing to them on the road (except TCU). This formula is good enough to make the tournament, but it's really tough to climb the seed lines doing this. They might max out at a 5 seed unless they bink a roadie or two.
Texas (14-7) (3-5) RPI 30 SoS 14
Vital signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 1-7 vs. Top 50, 3-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: WVU, N-Iowa...@UConn?
Bad losses: all 7 are to legit Top 50 teams...home to Stanford doesn't really count here, but whatever
Pretty obvious what's holding them back. No loss is bad, but they haven't gotten that signature win yet. Plenty of chances abound, though. And this is a rather neat situation: either they start winning those games, or their overall W-L and conference record are going to be so bad you'll have no choice but to bounce them from the bubble.
Oklahoma (14-7) (5-4) RPI 21 SoS 8
Vital signs: 5-6 R/N, non-con SoS 69, 6-4 vs. Top 50, 7-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Butler, @Texas, Baylor
Bad losses: @Creighton, K-State at home?,N-Washington?
Pretty stock profile of a team that should get a 6-8 seed. Good enough to amass enough quality wins to be comfortable, but too many marginal losses to really think about a high seed. Those 6 top 50 wins include 4 road/neutrals (N-Butler, @Texas, @OSU, @Tulsa), plus @UCLA is on there too. Those will erase what seem like harmful losses.
Oklahoma St (14-7) (4-5) RPI 42 SoS 34
Vital signs: 4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 128, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Baylor, Texas, @Tulsa?
Bad losses: @South Carolina, @K-State?
This profile still lags a bit behind the top 6. Signature wins not quite as good, bad losses just slightly worse than everyone else's. They're already lost both games to Oklahoma, so their series with WVU coming up, along with roadies to Baylor and Texas, will define this profile.
Kansas St (12-10) (5-4) RPI 83 SoS 25
Vital signs: 3-7 R/N, non-con SoS 147, 4-6 vs. Top 50, 5-9 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Baylor, @Oklahoma, N-A&M
Bad losses: Texas Southern might be good, but it's still catastrophic. N-Pitt? @LBSU?
They've worked their way on here by brute force. No single loss on this resume is inexplicable, but there's far too many. They have juuuuust enough quality wins to make this thing seem attainable, but a lot of work left. They still have Kansas and Iowa St at home. Needless to say, you know what has to happen.
NIT watch
No teams here, although K-State will join this section soon.
CBI/CIT watch
TCU (14-7) (1-7) RPI 128 SoS 154 - They had such a head start in the non-con that they might stay above .500, and the CBI may be of interest to them. The win at Ole Miss does look better by the day, but the second best win is Washington State. Pass.
No postseason
Texas Tech is a sacrificial lamb.
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