Bubble Watch 2/4: A-10 edition

This won't be much fun for the A-10.

The Lockbox

VCU (17-4) (7-1) RPI 9 SoS 3
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 9-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  UNI, @Cincy..GWU and Davidson?
Bad losses:  Richmond at home I guess
Look at that non-con SoS.  It's boosted by games against UVa, 'Nova, and ODU (which happen to be 3 of their losses).  But they won enough (including neutrals against Oregon and Tennessee) to be just fine.  The committee will always reward the #1 non-con SoS.  The big issue is there's really no way to improve this seed without running some tables.

Bubble

Dayton (17-4) (7-2) RPI 35 SoS 117
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 104, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 5-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-A&M?  home to Ole Miss?
Bad losses:  I suppose N-UConn.  @UMass isn't the greatest either
When you dig deep, there's not a lot of substance in this profile.  No single vital sign is in bad shape, but there's no magic bullet either.  It's a profile that could use a little bit of a boost, and good conference wins should be enough to do that.  But they can't slide too far down before hitting the bubble, because they don't have that magic bullet that can erase profile flaws.

George Washington (16-6) (6-3) RPI 53 SoS 142
Vital signs:  7-6 R/N, non-con SoS 201, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Wichita St, Richmond?
Bad losses:  @Penn St, @LaSalle
All 6 losses are road losses, and their best road win (Rutgers) is a team worse than Penn St.  That could be troubling, as most of that 7-6 above is neutral site wins.  Now, obviously, that signature win over Wichita is carrying this profile and will do the heavy lifting, if they do enough in the rest of this conference.

Davidson (13-5) (5-3) RPI 46 SoS 108
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 235, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Dayton, @UMass? Richmond?
Bad losses:  @St Joseph's
Some troubling issues in the non-con, with a marginal SoS (despite playing and losing to UVa and UNC).  That is not a good harbinger.  A couple more Dayton-like wins will be required to make this tournament, period.  Work to do.

Rhode Island (14-5) (7-2) RPI 65 SoS 118
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 163, 0-4 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  GWU
Bad losses:  N-GaTech
This is generous, and mostly based on the fact they have opportunities coming up...and if they convert them, they'll have the wins they need, and the conference finish to supplement it.

Richmond (12-9) (5-3) RPI 57 SoS 24
Vital signs:  2-7 R/N, non-con SoS 30, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 3-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @VCU, Davidson
Bad losses:  @JMU, Wake at home
Barely on this list, and solely because they binked @VCU.  Work to do.  Massive work to do.

NIT watch

UMass (12-9) (5-3) RPI 49 SoS 19 - Yes, yes, the RPI and SoS numbers.  Yes, the on win over Dayton.  Also, the losses to @Harvard...and @St Joe's..and St Bonaventure at home...FGCU too.  Too many flaws in every vital sign.  Also behind all these other A-10 teams...too many teams in front of them.  They need to finish ahead of them in conference because the rest of their profile lags behind them.

CBI/CIT watch

LaSalle (12-9) (4-4) RPI 89 SoS 76
St Bonaventure (11-8) (4-4) RPI 169 SoS 198

No postseason

I have nothing witty to say about St Joseph's, George Mason, St Louis, or Duquesne.  They're pretty standard teams compared to your typical A-10 cellar dwellar.  Not hurting the conference, not helping them.  Fordham is still terrible.