Bubble Watch 2/6: Big East edition

They've simmered down from their hot start, but 6 bids seems reasonable for them.

The Lockbox

Villanova (20-2) (7-2) RPI 7 SoS 36
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-VCU, Butler, Xavier
Bad losses:  I guess @Seton Hall if you want a 1 seed
Your standard fare 2 seed is coming.  Of possible issue is that they only have those 3 wins against tournament teams right now, which is low for a 2 seed.  There's plenty of chances to get the depth worked up, though, so they'll be fine.

Bubble

Butler (17-6) (7-3) RPI 18 SoS 13
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 63, 7-5 vs. Top 50, 7-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-UNC, N-G'town, swept Seton Hall and St John's
Bad losses:  I suppose @Tennesse
Their other 5 losses are inside the top 50...sweeping slightly inferior opponents...scheduled up...not much wrong here.  I guess my only concern here is the possible accumulation factor of losses if they go on a losing streak.  They're golden.

Providence (17-6) (7-3) RPI 20 SoS 21
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 22, 6-3 vs. Top 50, 10-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Butler, swept G'town, N-Notre Dame
Bad losses:  Brown at home!  Also @BC and @Marquette
I'll be honest, that bad loss literally costs them the lockbox.  There's no other reason not to lock them in right now.  But again, the possible accumulation factor of losses loom.  Well, those couple of road losses isn't helping, but I can ignore those, especially with those good R/N wins in tow.

Georgetown (15-7) (7-4) RPI 22 SoS 5
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 3, 3-7 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Nova, Butler, N-Indiana
Bad losses:  home to Xavier is the worst
All 7 losses are against the top 35, and they did get those 3 wins over probable tournament teams.  This might be bad news for seeding, but it certainly won't be for selection.  In a similar position to Butler and Provi, but a half-step behind because Provi and Xavier have swept them.  They'll be fine.  Also note the non-con SoS which is an elixir in case they need it.

Xavier (14-9) (5-6) RPI 35 SoS 14
Vital signs:  3-8 R/N, non-con SoS 45, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 7-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  swept G'town, Seton Hall
Bad losses:  @DePaul, @Auburn, Creighton
Now the fun begins.  Legitimately bad losses, and they go even deeper than that list.  That sweep of G'town is everything right now, and they need to add to it, quick.  That, and the road games.  MUST start to get them.

Seton Hall (15-7) (5-5) RPI 44 SoS 65
Vital signs:  6-5 R/N, non-con SoS 159, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Nova, Xavier, GWU...
Bad losses:  swept by DePaul!
I'd like their profile exponentially more without those DePaul black marks.  They do need a road win that they can show off (best is Creighton right now).  The season probably comes down to if they can steal a road win somewhere, while holding everyone off at home.  Standard bubble+ profile that should be safe if they don't lose a silly home game.

St John's (13-8) (3-6) RPI 49 SoS 15
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 49, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  swept Provi...St Mary's?
Bad losses:  @DePaul, @Creighton...
I said going into conference play, as everyone projected 7 teams in this conference...not enough wins to go around.  And it's this team getting hit with the famine.  Those Provi wins are great, but that's all they got.  They need more profile variety, especially by dropping 2 roadies at the worst 3 teams in the league.  They do have 5 top 20 losses, so that number isn't the problem, FYI.

NIT watch

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CBI/CIT watch

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No postseason

I'm still projecting DePaul for no postseason.  They're 6-5 in conference play, 12-12 overall.  They beat Stanford in the non-con, but lost to everything:  Lehigh, N-Ohio, Illinois St, N-Loyola Marymount!  So they're not close.  But they've stolen 2 wins from the Hall, one from Xavier, and one from St John's.  How many more are they going to take?

Creighton actually beat Oklahoma (good!) and @Nebraska (since marginalized), and people got ahead of themselves...and they fell to the basement.  Sigh.

Marquette is the one team here behaving like a basement team should.