NIT projections 2/16

Let's take a good in-depth look at the NIT situation.

NCAA Bubble (makes up the top 3 lines of the NIT):
North Carolina St (15-11)
Oregon (17-8)
Miami (15-9)
Tulsa (17-6)
Old Dominion (18-6)
Pittsburgh (16-9)
George Washington (17-8)
St Mary's (18-6)
Seton Hall (16-10)
Davidson (16-6)
Rhode Island (16-6)
BYU (18-8)

In a typical NIT year, there are 10 spots taken up by autobids.  This means that 22 of the 32 spots in the NIT are spoken for at this point.  Here is my estimation of the NIT bubble:

The 4 line:  Boise St (16-7), UConn (14-10), Oregon St (15-9), Wyoming (18-6)
The 5 line:  Clemson (15-10), Michigan (12-12), Kansas St (13-13), Tennessee (14-10)
The 6 line:  California (16-10), Stephen F Austin (17-4)

Bubble burst:
Minnesota (15-10), Alabama (14-10), Florida St (14-12), LaSalle (14-11), Memphis (15-10), Buffalo (15-9), Akron (16-8), Yale (16-7), Green Bay (18-6), UTEP (18-7)

I will say that more and more mid-majors will creep into this NIT field by next month.  Some of these power conference schools are going to absorb a bunch of losses and fall back.  But as of today, I can't find room for them.  I have to imagine the MAC will get a 2nd team in....I bet Green Bay and UTEP get in if they take care of business...and I bet Michigan and K-State fall by the boards, at least, and probably Tennessee too.

Now, because I can, here's a full bracket just to visualize this for you all.  I've included the 10 bubble teams I left out above to be fillers for the autobid spots for right now.  And truth is, most of these teams will make it anyways.

EAST
1) North Carolina St (15-11) vs. 8) LaSalle (14-11)
4) UConn (14-10) vs. 5) California (16-10)
3) Seton Hall (16-10) vs. 6) Kansas St (13-13)
2) George Washington (17-8) vs. 7) Florida St (14-12)

SOUTH
1) Miami (15-9) vs. 8) Memphis (15-10)
4) Tennessee (14-10) vs. 5) Stephen F Austin (17-4)
3) Davidson (16-6) vs. 6) Buffalo (15-9)
2) Old Dominion (18-6) vs. 7) Alabama (14-10)

MIDWEST
1) Tulsa (17-6) vs. 8) Akron (16-8)
4) Clemson (15-10) vs. 5) Michigan (12-12)
3) Rhode Island (16-6) vs. 6) Yale (16-7)
2) Pittsburgh (16-9) vs. 7) Green Bay (18-6)

WEST
1) Oregon (17-8) vs. 8) Minnesota (15-10)
4) BYU (18-8) vs. 5) Wyoming (18-6)
3) Boise St (16-7) vs. 6) Oregon St (15-9)
2) St Mary's (18-6) vs. 7) UTEP (18-7)

Now, further down, the following teams are in my next tier.  They're definitely in NIT conversation, but need to play well and get some help:
Basically every power conference team that finishes above .500 that isn't listed yet (think Washington, Arizona St,  Colorado, St Bonaventure, etc.) can still be in play
WCC:  Pepperdine
MAC:  just about everyone has a chance, if they can win their individual division but not the overall #1 seed for the NIT autobid
MVC:  Illinois St still kinda in play
CUSA:  If WKU can catch the rest in the standings, they might join UTEP in the list above
MW:  UNLV
small conferences:  Georgia St kind of has the RPI to be in play...The following teams, if they don't win their regular season conference title, will be around the NIT cutline:  Valparaiso, Bowling Green, Harvard, Eastern Washington, Wofford, Louisiana Tech.  This list would include Murray St and Iona, but it would take a collaspe for either not to finish 1st in their conference.  2 current leaders, UC-Davis and Sam Houston St, would probably be well short of the NIT cutline, and the other leaders, if they fell back, would be way too far back.