- moved Oklahoma from 3 line to 4 line
- moved Iowa St from 4 line to 3 line
- moved Georgetown from 6 line to 5 line
- moved Arkansas from 5 line to 6 line
- moved Iowa from 10 line to 8 line
- moved Xavier from 8 line to 9 line
- moved Ohio St from 9 line to 10 line
- moved Temple out of the bracket
- moved Texas into the bracket on the 11 line
My personal notes:
1) My heart's not into Texas in the field, but I think it's what the committee would do
2) Dayton takes the A-10 lead, moving Davidson back onto the at-large board
3) K-State inches up to the last 4 out...oy. It's kind of absurb, but I'd rather have them than Pitt, Miami, or Illinois, you know? In reality they're very far from the bubble, but it's just that I have to list 4 teams there. In reality, the bubble falls off a cliff after Stanford there
The 1 line: Kentucky (30-0), Virginia (28-1), Duke (26-3), Villanova (28-2)
The 2 line: Arizona (26-3), Gonzaga (28-2), Wisconsin (26-3), Kansas (24-6)
The 3 line: Maryland (25-5), Utah (21-6), Notre Dame (24-5), Iowa St (21-8)
The 4 line: Oklahoma (20-9), Baylor (21-8), Northern Iowa (27-3), Wichita St (26-3)
The 5 line: North Carolina (21-9), Louisville (23-6), Providence (20-9), Georgetown (19-9)
The 6 line: Arkansas (23-6), West Virginia (22-8), Butler (21-9), SMU (22-6)
The 7 line: St John's (19-9), Dayton (23-6), VCU (21-8), Cincinnati (20-9)
The 8 line: Michigan St (19-10), San Diego St (21-7), Oklahoma St (16-11), Iowa (20-10)
The 9 line: Xavier (18-12), Colorado St (23-5), Oregon (21-8), Indiana (19-11)
The 10 line: Ohio St (21-8), North Carolina St (18-12), LSU (21-8), Georgia (19-10)
The 11 line: Ole Miss (20-10), Purdue (19-10), Boise St (20-7), UCLA (18-12), Davidson (20-6), Texas (18-12)
The 12 line: Tulsa (21-6), Stephen F Austin (22-4), Wofford (23-6), Murray St (24-4)
The 13 line: Iona (24-7), Harvard (18-6), Louisiana Tech (22-7), Valparaiso (23-5)
The 14 line: William & Mary (16-11), UC-Davis (20-5), Central Michigan (19-6), North Carolina Central (19-6)
The 15 line: South Dakota St (19-9), Albany (21-8), New Mexico St (17-10), Texas Southern (16-12)
The 16 line: Georgia Southern (17-7) Sacramento St (17-8), Charleston Southern (16-10), North Florida (18-11), St Francis(NY) (20-10), Bucknell (17-13)
Bubble in:
St John's
Dayton
VCU
Cincinnati
Michigan St
San Diego St
Oklahoma St
Iowa
Xavier
Colorado St
Oregon
Indiana
Ohio St
Next 4 in:
North Carolina St
LSU
Georgia
Ole Miss
Last 4 in:
Purdue
Boise St (currently in the field as the Mountain West leader)
UCLA
Davidson
Texas
Last 4 out:
Tulsa (currently in the field as the AAC leader)
Temple (20-9)
BYU (21-8)
Stanford (18-10)
Kansas St (15-15)
Next 4 out:
Pittsburgh (18-11)
Miami (18-11)
Texas A&M (20-9)
Old Dominion (22-6)
Bubble inception: we have to go deeper:
Illinois (18-11)
Stephen F Austin (currently in the field as the Southland leader)
UConn (17-11)
4 comments:
I hope you're right about Cincinnati. Most have them 10-11. Why a "7" seed?
The long answer is hidden in an earlier blog post:
http://bracketball.blogspot.com/2015/03/bracket-matrix-comparison-32.html
The short answer: There's not much difference in resumes between the 7 seeds and the 10 seeds, and the plus things in Cincy's resume are the types of things the selection committee over-rewards for.
Ok. Does a win tonight at Tulsa lock them in? I think it's possible the AAC might get 5 bids if UConn wins the AAC Tourney and the teams on the bubble do well in tourney.
I think so - with the caveat that if they draw a USF or Houston in the conference tournament, a loss there would be so catastrophic (assuming they lose to Memphis too) that I'd have to reconsider.
AAC getting 5 bids is a real longshot. The thing is, if UConn beats 2 good teams to win the conference tourney, then it's very likely that Tulsa and Temple have lost out on their chances to get a big win. For example, if UConn's the 5 seed, that means they're either taking out Tulsa (obviously bad) or SMU (thereby preventing Temple/Tulsa from getting a signature win chance).
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