Big 12 conference tournament preview

This is part 19 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:
Kansas 13-5
Iowa St 12-6
Oklahoma 12-6
Baylor 11-7
West Virginia 11-7
Oklahoma St 8-10
Texas 8-10
Kansas St 8-10
TCU 4-14
Texas Tech 3-15

Conference tournament format:  Wednesday March 11 to Saturday March 14, in Kansas City.  Straight-up bracket.

The matchups:
1) Kansas vs. 8/9) Kansas St/TCU
4) Baylor vs. 5) West Virginia
2) Iowa St vs. 7/10) Texas/Texas Tech
3) Oklahoma vs. 6) Oklahoma St

The stakes:
Can Kansas hang onto the 2 line if they don't win this tournament?  Remember this tournament final is Saturday, so the committee will have time to adjust if they lose.  The tributaries of attacks will likely be formed by a combination of Maryland, Notre Dame, and fellow Big 12 rivals.  I'm not sure the Big 12 rivals can actually catch them though; Kansas is a half-step ahead in the profiles.  I think in the end that Kansas has too big a lead to lose here on the 2 line.

Iowa St/Baylor/Oklahoma are in a fascinating 3-way battle for seeding in and around the 3 line.  Iowa St/Oklahoma might just be a battle for the #9 overall seed, 1st on the 3 line, depending on what happens elsewhere.  Baylor is kind of trapped on the other side of the bracket, but they get the chance at an extra-impact win over Kansas that could leapfrog them over both.

I've also had WVU a half-step behind the ISU/BU/OU triumvirate.  That could change with a win over Baylor, but I'm kind of rooting for a loss there to make my job easier.

Deeper down in the field, I can't see a loss to Oklahoma hurting Oklahoma St enough to knock them out of the field.  They're playing for seeding.

I think Texas is probably going to have to beat Iowa St to make the field of 68.  They're barely in, and history says that's an awful position without getting another quality win.  At least they know what they need to do, and I think that one win would do it.

I'm not actually sure if the NIT still has a .500 rule, but if they don't, Kansas St is unbelievably in contention for the NIT.  Worst case, I bet the CBI comes calling, and it'll be up to them whether to accept.  Also, TCU is above .500 thanks to their awful non-con scheduling, and they strike me as the type of team that would go to the CBI.