Saturday, March 14, 2015

S-Curve 3/15 morning edition

1) Wisconsin to the 1 line, Virginia to the 2.  My heart's not into it, but it's what I believe the committee will do.
2) I dropped Georgia like a stone during my seed scrubbing.  I think they're safe though, ahead of two other SEC bubble teams.
3) I'm not exactly comfortable with how close everyone has Indiana to the bubble.  I just don't see it.  I think they're clear by about 5 spots.  They just simply have better wins than the other bubble teams.
4) I dropped the Mountain West teams some, but not a lot.  Colorado St did drop down, and I would not be shocked if they were a surprise miss.
5) If I'm gonna be wrong, it's going to be on Temple.  No qualms with them being in.  I might debate Texas/Temple down to the wire.
6) Back up to the gut says Notre Dame on the 2 line, but that non-con SoS says nope.  It's reluctant, but I think that 2 seed is Iowa St's.
7) Another pressure point...last 3 seed.  UNC/Oklahoma.  I could go either way on this one.
8) Pressure point...#16 overall on the S-Curve.  I would NOT be shocked if UL got pushed down to the 5.  They're much closer to that than the 3.
9) The 7-9 lines are ugly, IMO.  The profiles fall off fast.

The 1 line:  Kentucky (33-0), Villanova (32-2), Duke (29-4), Wisconsin (30-3)
The 2 line:  Virginia (29-3), Arizona (31-3), Gonzaga (31-2), Iowa St (25-8)
The 3 line:  Kansas (26-8), Notre Dame (29-5), Maryland (27-6), North Carolina (24-11)
The 4 line:  Oklahoma (22-10), Baylor (24-9), Northern Iowa (30-3), Louisville (24-8)
The 5 line:  West Virginia (23-9), Wichita St (27-4), Georgetown (21-10), Butler (22-10)
The 6 line:  Utah (23-8), Arkansas (26-7), SMU (25-6), Michigan St (23-10)
The 7 line:  Providence (22-11), VCU (25-9), Xavier (21-13), Oregon (24-9)
The 8 line:  St John's (20-11), San Diego St (25-8), Dayton (25-7), Iowa (21-11)
The 9 line:  Cincinnati (22-10), North Carolina St (20-13), Ohio St (23-10), Oklahoma St (17-13)
The 10 line:  Purdue (20-13), Davidson (22-8), Boise St (23-8), Georgia (21-11)
The 11 line:  Indiana (20-13), BYU (23-9), Colorado St (26-6), Ole Miss (20-12), LSU (22-10), Texas (20-13)
The 12 line:  Stephen F Austin (26-4), Wyoming (23-9), Buffalo (23-9), Wofford (26-6)
The 13 line:  Valparaiso (25-5), Harvard (20-7), Georgia St (22-9), Northeastern (23-11)
The 14 line:  Eastern Washington (23-8), North Dakota St (21-9), Belmont (21-10), UAB (18-15)
The 15 line:  UC-Irvine (19-12), Albany (24-8), New Mexico St (21-10), Texas Southern (22-12)
The 16 line:  Coastal Carolina (20-9), North Florida (20-11), Lafayette (19-12), Manhattan (19-13), Robert Morris (19-14), Hampton (16-17)

Last 5 in:
Colorado St
Ole Miss

Last 5 out:
Temple (23-10)
UCLA (20-13)
Murray St (25-5)
UConn (20-13)
Tulsa (22-9)

Off the board:  Stephen F Austin (into the autobid category), Miami, Illinois, Old Dominion - I conservately kept them on, but they can safely come off now.

UConn charging up the list is semantics only - either they win the autobid or fall back off the board.  If they do win tomorrow, they would get seeded on the 11 line right ahead of Stephen F Austin.

1 comment:

HenryMuto said...

Well that 1 poached bid has really complicated things to me it was pretty clear (at least in my mind) who the 68 teams were and I agree with you at the moment that Temple was in until Wyoming knocked them out. The question is will the committee dump an SEC team (like Ole Miss) and keep Temple. I always thought UCLA, Miami, Texas A&M and Murray State would likely be out anyway either way.