Atlantic-10 conference tournament preview

This is part 25 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:
Davidson 14-4
Dayton 13-5
Rhode Island 13-5
Richmond 12-6
VCU 12-6
George Washington 10-8
St Bonaventure 10-8
UMass 10-8
LaSalle 8-10
St Joseph's 7-11
Duquesne 6-12
Fordham 4-14
George Mason 4-14
St Louis 3-15

Conference tournament format:  In Brooklyn, Wednesday March 11 to Sunday March 15.  All 14 on site; the bottom 4 playing the 1st round and the top 4 with byes to the quarterfinals (these are your standard 14-team bracket setups these days, kids).

Bracket:
1) Davidson vs. 8/9) UMass/LaSalle
4) Richmond vs. the winner of 5) VCU and 12/13) Fordham/George Mason
2) Dayton vs. 7/10) St Bonaventure/St Joseph's
3) Rhode Island vs. the winner of 6) George Washington vs. 10/14) Duquesne/St Louis

The stakes:
First the easier parts:  VCU is safe, but seeding is an issue, and dumping a game to Richmond wouldn't help.  Dumping one to Davidson really wouldn't either, but it wouldn't be as harmful.  I can't see this team in current form being above the 7 line, and probably not on the 7 line either.  Dayton has variable seeding too but I can't imagine them being completely out in any scenario.  The 7 line is the peak for either if they win this tournament.

Can Davidson survive a loss in the quarterfinals?  Since there's no true lemon in their half of the draw unless Fordham/GMU go bonkers, I think Davidson is safe no matter what.  There's value in getting hot at the right time, and avoiding losses.  Only 6 losses means general safety at this point, relative to the rest of the bubble and all the "quality losses" others absorbed.

So where's the bubble drama?  Rhode Island, I suppose.  But the draw is marginal and means they'll likely have to beat Dayton to have any chance - and if they lose the title game, it'll be on Sunday, so contingencies would be in play.  Keep that in the back of your mind.  Richmond has a long road too, but they do have the VCU/Davidson double.  Get both and the plot thickens, although I don't think they can get all the way there.

I think both George Washington and UMass are NIT-caliber teams, but space might be limited.  I wouldn't be surprised if one or both got left out.  Better to pull an upset here in this tourney to make sure, right?  It would also mean 4 probable NIT bids out of the conference, a healthy number.

Deeper in the field, St Bonaventure and LaSalle are your 2 candidates for CBI/CIT play.