Bubble analysis 3/2

First things first:  I feel sorry for the Bracket Matrix.  Because the different ways in which people deal with conference leaders is going to make things impossible, and it's going to paint an inaccurate picture of the current bubble situation.  Let me explain:

1) Some people will mark SMU as the automatic bid winner of the AAC, but Tulsa actually leads the conference.  Some will mark Tulsa as the automatic bid winner of the AAC, but the bracket matrix will be forced to count Tulsa as an at-large candidate because more people will list SMU.  So Tulsa will be shown as getting an at-large bid by the consensus of the bracketologists, but that will be a false projection because many are including them by force.
2) The same thing is happening to the Mountain West.  Boise St is tied with SDSU and has the tiebreaker in hand.  I'm forced, by my own rules, to project Boise as the autobid winner.  Some others will do the same thing, but they might not think Boise is in the field otherwise.  Same effect here as with Tulsa
3) Complicating things even more, Davidson is the current autobid projection for the A-10.  So that's 3 bubble teams projected as conference winners, completely mucking everything up.  The really screwy thing is VCU is not one of those 3 teams.  So some will list VCU as the leader, some will list Davidson (H2H record among the 3 tied teams)...and others will go Dayton for this (best RPI).  Plus there's Rhode Island, of which I'm hoping someone gives the autobid to them just to be a dick ;)

As you can see above, I've got Boise and Davidson in on merit, and Tulsa out on merit, but all 3 are in.  The end result is Stanford and Texas falling out of this bracket.  Still, the presence of those 3 teams are going to cause inaccurate projections, and there's no way to fix it unless you're somehow able to guess which rules every single bracketologist is using for giving out autobids.  And figuring out that would take hours.  Not worth it.

Let's go section by section on my bubble list:
Will make the field, barring a disaster:  St John's, VCU, Cincinnati, Dayton, Michigan St, San Diego St, Oklahoma St, Xavier, Indiana
There's an interesting dynamic with these teams, which comprise teams #25 through #33 on the S-Curve.  The top 24 teams are way clear of this group.  The difference between #24 SMU and #25 St John's is large right now.

Bubble teams that are probably safe:  Colorado St, Oregon, Ohio St, Iowa, North Carolina St
There's an extra level of peril in this group, and they can absolutely miss by losing out, but that's probably what it will take.

The true bubble:  LSU, Georgia, Mississippi, Purdue, Boise St, UCLA, Davidson, Temple, CUTLINE, Tulsa, BYU, Stanford, Texas, Texas A&M
These require no explanation.  Ebb and flow abound in this group

The distant bubble:  Kansas St, Pittsburgh, Miami, Old Dominion, Illinois, Stephen F Austin, UConn
These teams are probably multiple wins away from the right side of the cutline, but still very much in play.  This includes a couple of oddballs, K-State and UConn, but they're in play.  This is mostly because of the true bubble list above, there's only 5 teams on the wrong side of the cutline, so if enough teams collapse, there could be room.