Saturday, March 14, 2015

S-Curve 3/14

Too many changes to list out.

The 1 line:  Kentucky (32-0), Villanova (30-2), Virginia (29-3), Duke (29-4)
The 2 line:  Wisconsin (29-3), Arizona (30-3), Gonzaga (31-2), Kansas (26-7)
The 3 line:  Notre Dame (28-5), Maryland (27-5), Iowa St (24-8), North Carolina (24-10)
The 4 line:  Oklahoma (22-10), Northern Iowa (30-3), Baylor (23-9), Louisville (24-8)
The 5 line:  West Virginia (23-9), Wichita St (27-4), Georgetown (21-10), Utah (23-8)
The 6 line:  Butler (22-10), SMU (24-6), Arkansas (25-7), Providence (22-11)
The 7 line:  Michigan St (22-10), San Diego St (25-7), Xavier (21-12), St John's (20-11)
The 8 line:  Oregon (24-8), Dayton (24-7), VCU (24-9), Cincinnati (22-10)
The 9 line:  Ohio St (23-10), Iowa (21-11), North Carolina St (20-13), Georgia (21-10)
The 10 line:  Oklahoma St (17-13), Colorado St (26-6), Purdue (20-12), Indiana (20-12)
The 11 line:  Davidson (22-7), BYU (23-9), Boise St (23-8), Ole Miss (20-12), LSU (22-10)
The 12 line:  Texas (20-13), UCLA (20-13), Stephen F Austin (25-4), Wofford (26-6), Yale (20-9)
The 13 line:  Valparaiso (25-5), Central Michigan (20-7), Northeastern (23-11), Georgia St (21-9)
The 14 line:  North Dakota St (21-9), Belmont (21-10), Albany (23-8), UC-Irvine (18-12)
The 15 line:  UAB (17-15), New Mexico St (20-10), Texas Southern (21-12), Montana (18-11)
The 16 line:  Coastal Carolina (20-9), Lafayette (19-12), North Florida (20-11), Manhattan (19-13), Robert Morris (19-14), Delaware St (16-16)

Last 7 in:
Boise St
Ole Miss

Last 6 out:
Temple (23-9)
Tulsa (22-8)
Stephen F Austin (currently in as Southland leader)
Murray St (25-5)
Miami (21-12)
Illinois (19-13)
Old Dominion (24-7)

Teams still in play, but are too far gone for an at-large bid:  UConn, Rhode Island

While I leave the bubble with 13 teams playing for 7 spots, the very likely scenario is this:  There are two spots left, held by Texas and UCLA.  Those are the spots that will disappear if the likes of Wyoming and UConn win their conference tourneys.  Also, Temple and Tulsa are both gunning for those spots.  I leave Murray St and ODU on the board as the sentimental possible mid-major choices, and Miami/Illinois as the stock power conference options left on the board.

I'm still not sure what I want to do with the 1 line.  Duke having those head-to-head wins is extremely massive right now, but I can't help but wonder that the committee can't ignore Wisky's double championships (if they happen).


HenryMuto said...

A lot of people have Virginia dropping to the 2 seed mainly because Justin Anderson looks like a shell of his former self and they lost their 2 toughest games since he has been back.

Andrew said...

I think I'm about to do the same thing. I have to put Wisconsin on the 1 line somewhere, and head-to-head has to mean something at some point for Duke.

I count 7 teams this year who would've been #3 overall on my S-Curve last year. Really top-loaded bracket.

HenryMuto said...

I didn't think UCLA was going to make it anyway but Wyoming's win probably knocks them out if they were going to get in. I thought we might have had 0 bid thieves for once but Wyoming wins and UCONN in the finals.

I have 60 teams locked in I feel good about and I think there are 12 teams on the bubble for 8 spots if UCONN loses tomorrow.

My current list for the final 8 spots these 12 teams in no particular order at this time.

Miami FL
Boise State
Colorado State

This is going to be tight.

HenryMuto said...

Davidson is all over the place on people's brackets. I think you have them in around the right spot sitting as the 1st #11 seed but I do feel they are pretty safely in the field. The thing is I list out 12 teams for 8 spots and I didn't list Davidson because I think they are almost for sure in but I don't know that I can say that about the 12 teams I stated above. Jerry Palm from CBS has Davidson in the first 4 but his track record is not good he is ranked 52 out of 76 people. Heck he has only beat me once since 2006 and I am just someone who does this for fun each year. Joe Lunardi has Indiana moving out of the field with Wyoming's win while you have them pretty safely in.

Andrew said...

This is going to be an ugly bracketology year. People are going to miss 3, 4 teams. This year scares me. This is as wide I've seen the bubble in years.

HenryMuto said...

Now we have to figure out if the committee will move Iowa State ahead of Kansas. So much for what we all thought were the 4 lock #1 and four lock #2 seeds. Now it looks like we only have 3 locks Kentucky and Nova as #1's and Gonzaga as a #2 because you could see Duke, Virginia, Wisconsin or Arizona at #1 or #2 if the committee decided to drop both ACC teams though I just can't get past Arizona having 3 sub 100 losses so I will keep them as a #2 I think. Then you have Kansas vs Iowa State do they give the regular season champ the #2 or give the tourney champ the #2.