Sunday, March 15, 2015

Actual NCAA bracket (and analysis)

You're not gonna believe this, but I've got some thoughts.

I'm going to save performance analysis of how I did until Bracket Matrix is done running the numbers.

1) Kentucky vs. 16) Hampton/Manhattan
8) Cincinnati vs. 9) Purdue
The committee places a couple also-rans in the 8/9 game in Kentucky's way.  Convenient.
4) Maryland vs. 13) Valparaiso
5) West Virginia vs. 12) Buffalo
I had Maryland on the 3 line, and they clearly got shuffled back in favor of Big 12 teams.  No major issue with that, but I disagree
3) Notre Dame vs. 14) Northeastern
6) Butler vs. 11) Texas
Texas above the last 4 in?  There's some SoS bias in here
2) Kansas vs. 15) New Mexico St
7) Wichita St vs. 10) Indiana
Pleasantly surprised the committee seeded Indiana to the 10 line, I thought they'd be more harsh.  Also, Wichita has a horrible seed but they don't mind.  And they get to play in Omaha

1) Wisconsin vs. 16) Coastal Carolina
8) Oregon vs. 9) Oklahoma St
I guess the committee did have the stones to send Wisky to Omaha.  I still think Columbus would've been better
4) North Carolina vs. 13) Harvard
5) Arkansas vs. 12) Wofford
If you're going to reward teams for great schedules, why not reward UNC?  They're the one team that can punch on the same level with the Big 12 teams from a SoS standpoint.  Bit surprised they went Baylor and Iowa St over UNC on the S-Curve.  Moderate whiff from the committee
3) Baylor vs. 14) Georgia St
6) Xavier vs. 11) BYU/Ole Miss
My Big 12 thoughts are littered else, but Baylor is the one team I'm surprised that beat out UND and UNC on the S-Curve, among others.  #10 overall is highly aggressive
2) Arizona vs. 15) Texas Southern
7) VCU vs. 10) Ohio St
15 seed!  There you go, selection committee!  They deservedly took the SWAC of the 16 line.  I was very worried they wouldn't.  Good job

1) Villanova vs. 16) Lafayette
8) North Carolina St vs. 9) LSU
LSU's seed is a surprise.  This was a bubble team, and I don't see their resume being any better than most of the 10 line.  In particular, they are well ahead of Georgia and Ole Miss and I don't see it
4) Louisville vs. 13) UC Irvine
5) Northern Iowa vs. 12) Wyoming
A reasonable pod
3) Oklahoma vs. 14) Albany
6) Providence vs. 11) Boise St/Dayton
Dayton has an insane seed.  There's flaws in the resume but the reasonable SoS, the raw numbers...there should be enough here.  I'm not comfortable with this seed by the committee
2) Virginia vs. 15) Belmont
7) Michigan St vs. 10) Georgia
Another reasonable pod.  Virginia getting the #2 overall seed isn't the greatest draw for them, by the way.  It's a less extreme example of the Kentucky/Wisconsin narrative we've had the past few days, but this is just as unfair to both Nova and UVa

1) Duke vs. 16) North Florida/Robert Morris
8) San Diego St vs. 9) St John's
Nothing to complain about here
4) Georgetown vs. 13) Eastern Washington
5) Utah vs. 12) Stephen F Austin
I'm surprised Georgetown got all the way to the 4 line.  Them vs. Utah, UNI, Arkansas, can make the argument.  I wouldn't, but the committee did
3) Iowa St vs. 14) UAB
6) SMU vs. 11) UCLA
UCLA's inclusion is a bit insane.  Not a lot insane, considering they weren't out of my bracket until Wyoming took their spot.  The issue is they were 4 spots clear of the cutline.  I just don't think there's an argument for them over other power conference teams, at all, and I already pointed out how insane Dayton's seed is
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) North Dakota St
7) Iowa vs. 10) Davidson
Nothing to complain about here, either

There's, overall, some serious seeding issues, but these are mostly isolated.

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