Saturday, March 7, 2015

Mid-American conference tournament preview

This is part 16 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:
West:
Central Michigan 12-6
Toledo 11-7
Western Michigan 10-8
Eastern Michigan 10-8
Northern Illinois 8-10
Ball St 2-16
East:
Buffalo 12-6
Kent St 12-6
Bowling Green 11-7
Akron 9-9
Miami(OH) 8-10
Ohio 5-13

Conference tournament format:  They've got a pretty stupid one.  This is in response to having their best teams always lose in this tournament, which if you remember...those teams were usually on the fringe of at-large consideration, but never got an at-large bid.  So we've got the following silly format:

Monday March 9:  5-12 seeds play, at the site of the higher seed
Wednesday March 11:  2nd round, the 4 winners of those games play in Cleveland
Thursday March 12:  3rd round, the 2 winners play the 3rd and 4th seed
Friday March 13:  semifinals, the 2 winners play the 1st and 2nd seed
then finals on Saturday March 14

Bracket:
5) Bowling Green vs. 12) Ball St
8) Eastern Michigan vs. 9) Miami(OH)
winner of the 5/8/9/12 games play 4) Toledo, and the winner of that gets 1) Central Michigan
6) Western Michigan vs. 11) Ohio
7) Akron vs. 10) Northern Illinois
winner of the 6/7/10/11 games play 3) Kent St, and the winner of that gets 2) Buffalo

The stakes:
Central Michigan has the NIT bid in their pocket.  They also have the 4th easiest non-conference schedule in the country, so that should give you a clue about their seed chances.

The MAC ranks 10th in conference RPI, ahead of the MVC and Mountain West.  The entire MAC has 2 top 100 wins.  What?!??!??!  How is that possible?  I'll tell you why - they all played lousy schedules and ran up fancy W-L records, and therefore spread those records around like venereal diseases in conference play.  5 top 100 RPI teams in this league, without much substance behind them.  The entire conference has 2 top 100 wins - Michigan (EMU) and South Dakota St (Buffalo).  This is why I think the MAC is trapped on the 14 line no matter who wins this conference.  CMU, BGU, Kent St...these all feel like the same types of teams to me.

Buffalo has an RPI of 32.  That's insane.  Playing Kentucky and Wisconsin and a bunch of road games, and they completely hijacked the RPI this year.  If I had to guess, they'll make the NIT because lord knows what criteria they use in that room.  But Toledo, Kent St, Bowling Green...I see 3 resumes just good enough to get left out of the NIT.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this conference just gets the 1 NCAA team and CMU in the NIT, and that's it.

CBI/CIT eligible teams:  Buffalo, Toledo, Kent St, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Akron, Eastern Michigan.  Needless to say, not everyone is going to a postseason tournament, although some probably won't care enough to play anyway.

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