Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Grading the bracket

Ok, some for self-analysis.

Overall score on the Bracket Matrix:  335
Tied for 35th (35th through 40th), among 136 brackets.  So just inside the top quarter percentile.  I'm ok with this.

Teams correct:  67 of 68
Part of the cynic in me thinks if I could see ahead, I could say there's no way 4 Mountain West teams would get in.  Oh well.  I'm not too mad at missing Colorado St, and I was hotter on UCLA than most, so I can't complain.  I was closer than most here.  1 of 136 brackets got all 68 correct, and I was one of 12 that got 67 of 68.

Teams correctly seeded:  35 of 68
Ow.  This was a large ding.  Not good.  I think I outthought myself on 2 simple decisions.  I made the late swap of Iowa St and Kansas on the 2/3 lines, and moving UNC to the 3 line, dropping a Big 12 team down to the 4 line (likely Oklahoma).  Not doing those two things brings me to 39 of 68, which would be above average.  35 is around average, I think.  Not good.

Teams within 1 seed line:  64 of 68
Here's where I whopped all y'all, as only 1 of 136 brackets had more (65), and 1 other had 64 as well.

So the lessons I offer:

1) I need to stop over-adjusting the top 4 lines during the final couple of days.
2) I need to adjust more often from the 5-12 lines during the final couple of days.

The committee showed that they won't be reactionary for the top 16 teams based on the last couple of days of the season.  However, as shown by Xavier in particular, they do like to adjust a lot in the middle part of the bracket.

Not making the Kansas/Iowa St switch and the UNC/Oklahoma switch would have left me 4th.  I may or may not have thrown a chair upon realizing this.

1 comment:

HenryMuto said...

I wish I was in the matrix this year while I only got 66/68 teams I got 45 seeded correctly and 63 within 1 line for a total 351 pts. Oh well at least I know in my heart I scored more than everyone on there this year even if no one else cares/knows.

Congrats on doing well you placed where I would have played the last 2 years I was in the 34th and 35th place range.