Pacific-12 conference tournament preview

This is part 23 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:
Arizona 16-2
Oregon 13-5
Utah 13-5
UCLA 11-7
Arizona St 9-9
Stanford 9-9
Oregon St 8-10
California 7-11
Washington St 7-11
Colorado 7-11
Washington 5-13
USC 3-15

Conference tournament format:  Wednesday March 11 to Saturday March 14.  Vegas, baby.  Straight-up bracket.

Bracket:
1) Arizona vs. 8/9) California/Washington St
4) UCLA vs. 5/12) Arizona St/USC
2) Oregon vs. 7/10) Oregon St/Colorado
3) Utah vs. 6/11) Stanford/Washington

The stakes:
Arizona and the 1 line...I'm not sure they're going to get there, because they need to pass two of Duke/Virginia/Villanova/Wisconsin, and the conference isn't teeming with signature win chances.  They need to settle for staying ahead of Gonzaga and securing the 2 seed out west, which is plenty good enough for them.

Utah's seed could get interesting.  I had held onto them on the 3 line longer than most, and still have them on the 4.  But with Oregon catching them in the conference race, that's another checkmark for them off the board.  Some might argue they need another quality win (and I think Oregon's good enough to provide it).  All their computer numbers are good enough to support a 4 seed, and we'll see how many wins the teams around them pile up.

Oregon probably just has to handle their first game, just in case, to get in.  UCLA is a bit more tricky.  I'm more enthusiastic than most, as their catastrophic road/neutral record is an issue.  They made some reasonable progress in conference play (at home, at least) and having 6 top 16 losses means I'm not treating this like most 12-loss teams, frankly.  Obviously, beating Arizona is the elixir, but losing to them (they better handle that first game) will leave them vulnerable.  They're likely going down to Sunday afternoon still on the bubble, a swing pick for all the bracketologists.

Stanford's in trouble.  Good news is they get Utah out of the gate.  But they might need that, and Oregon, to get there.  I'm not buying stock in that happening.

Behind this, there's an interesting NIT race brewing.  Arizona St, Oregon St, and Cal all have marginal bubble profiles.  I'm guessing the NIT takes the easy way out and takes ASU (best conference record) and leaves out the other two.  But frankly I'm already anticipating being wrong on Oregon St.  That really could swing either way.  Behind these 3, Washington's actually above .500.  My God.  Anyway, I doubt any of these teams show up for the CBI.