Big 10 conference tournament preview

This is part 27 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:

Wisconsin 16-2

Maryland 14-4

Michigan St 12-6

Purdue 12-6

Iowa 12-6

Ohio St 11-7

Indiana 9-9

Illinois 9-9

Michigan 8-10

Northwestern 6-12

Minnesota 6-12

Nebraska 5-13

Penn St 4-14

Rutgers 2-16

Conference tournament format:  Chicago frrom Wednesday March 11 to Sunday March 15.  14-team bracket format that I've described previously.  You know the drill.

Bracket:

1) Wisconsin vs. 8/9) Illinois/Michigan

4) Purdue vs. winner of 5) Iowa vs. 12/13) Nebraska/Penn St

2) Maryland vs. 7/10) Indiana/Northwestern

3) Michigan St vs. winner of 6) Ohio St vs. 11/14) Minnesota/Rutgers

The stakes:

Wisconsin's place in the 1 line is a hot debate, and could go either way.  However, one thing is simple:  they gotta win this tournament to get there, given the competition.  There will be a lot of scoreboard watching for them, though.

Can Maryland hang onto a 3 seed?  I think merely getting to Sunday should be good enough for it.  The competition is likely to absorb another loss this week, so if Maryland avoids a loss all the way until Sunday when the committee is already bracketing the teams, then they're good to go.  However, this is the same reason Maryland cannot ascend to the 2 line.  They may deserve it over Kansas if they win out, but the committee won't know that until there's 30 minutes until the pairings are revealed.  And I don't think the committee would build contingencies to accommodate Maryland here.

Michigan St, Iowa.  7 seeds, or maybe 8.  Could get to a 6 with a big run this week, but not a lot of seed range for them.  Of course, I fear Iowa losing their first game just to mess everything up.  Ohio St is probably fine no matter what, but I'd rather avoid a bad loss in that first game.

Ok, to the bubble.  Purdue getting to the double bye is huge because they can't absorb a bad loss now (unless Iowa messes up).  Merely playing Iowa instead of Nebraska or PSU might be enough to lock in Purdue...maybe  As always, it depends what everyone else around them does too, so don't fall into that trap of thinking.  Still, it'll take multiple steps to knock Purdue out of the bracket.

Indiana didn't get any favors.  Northwestern won't help the profile, and Maryland is the 2nd toughest draw.  Given their freefall, some might want them see beat one decent team.  They could handle Purdue, or Iowa, or Ohio St.  But Maryland?  It might be a scenario where they have to beat Maryland to get it...although I think they're a couple spots above where everyone else has them.  To me, I think just beating Northwestern is enough, but others obviously disagree.

Illinois is left with work to do.  The bad news is they're in Wisconsin's line of fire.  It would be much more doable to have, say, Iowa or Ohio St's draw.  Now they're in a position where they have to pick up a good win to have a chance, and they're forced to take that shot against Goliath.  Trouble.

Behind that, Michigan actually needs a win to finish at .500 and Minnesota is NIT eligible but really on the bubble.  Illinois could easily be the only NIT rep out of this conference.